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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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it's almost an exact copy of the 12z as far as i care. someone might want to debate a 10 mile change of whatever. 

 

the gradient's still a pain in the area we know is a pain.

 

if you're west of d.c you might as well sleep for the next 24 so you can enjoy it. i think dc is fine too.

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thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles

I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's.

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thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles

I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's.

I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turns into 4-5" after compaction.

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I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn

s into 4-5" after compaction.

Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes.

I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears.

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Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes.

I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears.

 

Pretty much.. prob would also help to be snow before daybreak

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I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn

s into 4-5" after compaction.

Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes.

I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears.

Agreed. I've had 7"-10" as my Facebook forecast for the past few days. Riding it until 00z Thursday.

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BWI:

 

ED 06Z 06-MAR   1.8    -3.5    1010      78      97    0.04     547     539    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.9    -3.9    1004      97      89    0.33     541     537    WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.7    -4.5    1005      95     100    0.29     539     535    THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.9    -4.7    1011      89      99    0.19     543     533    THU 06Z 07-MAR   2.0    -2.6    1014      87      90    0.08     545     533    THU 12Z 07-MAR   0.5    -3.1    1018      82      58    0.01 

 

IAD

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.1    -2.5    1008      88      99    0.13     547     540    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.1    -3.7    1003      98      97    0.47     538     536    WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -4.8    1006      95     100    0.38     538     534    THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.9    -5.2    1013      90      99    0.22     544     533    THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.8    -3.3    1016      86      70    0.03     546     534  

 

DCA

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.2    -2.1    1009      87      98    0.11     547     540    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.5    1002      98      86    0.41     539     537    WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.0    -4.1    1003      97     100    0.37     537     535    THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.6    -4.6    1011      88      99    0.23     543     533    THU 06Z 07-MAR   2.0    -3.1    1015      86      93    0.07     545     534    THU 12Z 07-MAR  -0.1    -3.6    1018      86      26    0.01     548     534  

 

anyone else care for a dose of (what many would call) disappointment - hit me with your favorite three letters.

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