swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Normally I don't do pbp, but since it's the 00z euro and not many people are here, I'll give my weenie input....... Looks like DCA starts as snow???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 it's almost an exact copy of the 12z as far as i care. someone might want to debate a 10 mile change of whatever. the gradient's still a pain in the area we know is a pain. if you're west of d.c you might as well sleep for the next 24 so you can enjoy it. i think dc is fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's between 1 and 1.25" for all of dc metro....i dont have the good profile maps, but undoubtedly colder than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's between 1 and 1.25" for all of dc metro....i dont have the good profile maps, but undoubtedly colder than the GFS And thats the good news we all wanted to hear,... EE rule in effect Griteater above said thermals were fine for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's between 1 and 1.25" for all of dc metro....i dont have the good profile maps, but undoubtedly colder than the GFS First .5 falls with surface between 1.2 and 1.5 with 850's between -2.1 and -2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms during the next panel but only to 2.0 with 850's crashed to -4.1...... .37" falls then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First .5 falls with surface between 1.2 and 1.5 with 850's between -2.1 and -2.5 34 degrees or so... unfortunately without a sounding its hard to tell... sounds like wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms during the next panel but only to 2.0 with 850's crashed to -4.1...... .37" falls then awesome.. we're good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms again to 2.6 but 850's again lower, now to -4.6...... .23" falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms again to 2.6 but 850's again lower, now to -4.6...... .23" falls thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probably the last precip panel, surface 2.0..... 850's -3.1 and .07 falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Text output looks great. Namish. My nails might be safe for a day or 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Remember Sandy goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can I get 950's on accuPro? I'm on my phone so it's tough to search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Doesn't look like it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have no source for anything between 850 and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, from what I can see the 850 mb 0 degree line never makes it north of a line from St. Mary's county/ Calvert county border across the chesapeake towards dorchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's. I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turns into 4-5" after compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone in the Philly thread must have died...someone throw me a bone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone in the Philly thread must have died...someone throw me a bone? PHL gets .49" but it looks like at least half would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 PHL gets .49" but it looks like at least half would be rain. Thanks....ok...that blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I take that back.... 850's are plenty cold but surface gets as high as 4.6c...... Probably some mixing going on, just don't know how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I take that back.... 850's are plenty cold but surface gets as high as 4.6c...... Probably some mixing going on, just don't know how much. Ok..that's a tad better. I'm 25 mi NW of Philly so that'll help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn s into 4-5" after compaction. Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes. I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes. I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears. Pretty much.. prob would also help to be snow before daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn s into 4-5" after compaction. Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes. I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears. Agreed. I've had 7"-10" as my Facebook forecast for the past few days. Riding it until 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BWI: ED 06Z 06-MAR 1.8 -3.5 1010 78 97 0.04 547 539 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.9 -3.9 1004 97 89 0.33 541 537 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.7 -4.5 1005 95 100 0.29 539 535 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.9 -4.7 1011 89 99 0.19 543 533 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.0 -2.6 1014 87 90 0.08 545 533 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.5 -3.1 1018 82 58 0.01 IAD WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.1 -2.5 1008 88 99 0.13 547 540 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.1 -3.7 1003 98 97 0.47 538 536 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.4 -4.8 1006 95 100 0.38 538 534 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.9 -5.2 1013 90 99 0.22 544 533 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.8 -3.3 1016 86 70 0.03 546 534 DCA WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.2 -2.1 1009 87 98 0.11 547 540 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.5 1002 98 86 0.41 539 537 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.0 -4.1 1003 97 100 0.37 537 535 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -4.6 1011 88 99 0.23 543 533 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.0 -3.1 1015 86 93 0.07 545 534 THU 12Z 07-MAR -0.1 -3.6 1018 86 26 0.01 548 534 anyone else care for a dose of (what many would call) disappointment - hit me with your favorite three letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Big takeaway is not adding to gfs 850 confidence. Never want to be fighting uphill with consensus. Its been a great day. May not feel *perfect* but it never will. Let's just break the f***ing streak and drink gravy from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Elevation is best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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