Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Text output looks great. Namish. My nails might be safe for a day or 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Remember Sandy goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can I get 950's on accuPro? I'm on my phone so it's tough to search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Doesn't look like it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have no source for anything between 850 and surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, from what I can see the 850 mb 0 degree line never makes it north of a line from St. Mary's county/ Calvert county border across the chesapeake towards dorchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's. I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turns into 4-5" after compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone in the Philly thread must have died...someone throw me a bone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone in the Philly thread must have died...someone throw me a bone? PHL gets .49" but it looks like at least half would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 PHL gets .49" but it looks like at least half would be rain. Thanks....ok...that blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I take that back.... 850's are plenty cold but surface gets as high as 4.6c...... Probably some mixing going on, just don't know how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I take that back.... 850's are plenty cold but surface gets as high as 4.6c...... Probably some mixing going on, just don't know how much. Ok..that's a tad better. I'm 25 mi NW of Philly so that'll help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn s into 4-5" after compaction. Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes. I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes. I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears. Pretty much.. prob would also help to be snow before daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn s into 4-5" after compaction. Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes. I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears. Agreed. I've had 7"-10" as my Facebook forecast for the past few days. Riding it until 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 BWI: ED 06Z 06-MAR 1.8 -3.5 1010 78 97 0.04 547 539 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.9 -3.9 1004 97 89 0.33 541 537 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.7 -4.5 1005 95 100 0.29 539 535 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.9 -4.7 1011 89 99 0.19 543 533 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.0 -2.6 1014 87 90 0.08 545 533 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.5 -3.1 1018 82 58 0.01 IAD WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.1 -2.5 1008 88 99 0.13 547 540 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.1 -3.7 1003 98 97 0.47 538 536 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.4 -4.8 1006 95 100 0.38 538 534 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.9 -5.2 1013 90 99 0.22 544 533 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.8 -3.3 1016 86 70 0.03 546 534 DCA WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.2 -2.1 1009 87 98 0.11 547 540 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.5 -2.5 1002 98 86 0.41 539 537 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.0 -4.1 1003 97 100 0.37 537 535 THU 00Z 07-MAR 2.6 -4.6 1011 88 99 0.23 543 533 THU 06Z 07-MAR 2.0 -3.1 1015 86 93 0.07 545 534 THU 12Z 07-MAR -0.1 -3.6 1018 86 26 0.01 548 534 anyone else care for a dose of (what many would call) disappointment - hit me with your favorite three letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Big takeaway is not adding to gfs 850 confidence. Never want to be fighting uphill with consensus. Its been a great day. May not feel *perfect* but it never will. Let's just break the f***ing streak and drink gravy from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Elevation is best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Big takeaway is not adding to gfs 850 confidence. Never want to be fighting uphill with consensus. Its been a great day. May not feel *perfect* but it never will. Let's just break the f***ing streak and drink gravy from there. Might I suggest everyone in the mid-atlantic shutting off their lights/power for the next 36 hours? This will greatly help in the larger cities... Beyond that, there's really nothing we can do. Personally, I'd rather see a marginal threat...it prepares us for what could be 'worst case.' I'd probably hate to be on here tomorrow if 850s/9s were modeled to be -8 or better, and then we end up not verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Elevation is best bet. Elevation is best bet, but since we can't rapidly build a mountain for DC/BWI...Speed is best. If we can cool the column before the morning hours, then the uphill battle becomes a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Might I suggest everyone in the mid-atlantic shutting off their lights/power for the next 36 hours? This will greatly help in the larger cities... Beyond that, there's really nothing we can do. Personally, I'd rather see a marginal threat...it prepares us for what could be 'worst case.' I'd probably hate to be on here tomorrow if 850s/9s were modeled to be -8 or better, and then we end up not verifying. Tomorrow is when the real fun starts. We get to compare actual thermals to models. I'm a #s guy too...lol. And the rap comes into play. Good times never end man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Tomorrow is when the real fun starts. We get to compare actual thermals to models. I'm a #s guy too...lol. And the rap comes into play. Good times never end man. Agreed, I posted a day or two ago about numbers. I'm huge on holding models accountable. Just going on blind data is a terrible idea. I would never trust my financial guy if he said: "Well, we talked it over with the 5 guys here at the firm, one says you have between 100 and 300 dollars, a couple say you have a few thousand, and others say you lost all of your money" I'll say it once more, and then I'm done (not to you, just in general): Take your favorite model from yesterday, look at projected 850s for the time frame that exists now, compare 850s, surface, current observations...Probably a sure fire way to verify is to see what's happening in the MW with your favorite model. Granted, that's not an indicator of what will happen here, tomorrow...this is a tight gradient. But it is an indicator of what you're investing your money in. Same thing you'd do with your investment banker...everyone's profile is different, but you can learn a lot from a little work. Sidenote: I'm A believer in about 80% of the NAMs temperature profiles, and almost wholly in the camp for the GFS' QPF if anyone cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One last note before I faint from exhaustion. The euro is pasting ORH now. This is good because it's a full cave and the gfs made the euro look like a jv model for the last 2-3 days. DT looking like junior high too. But now we don't want the euro looking like the gfs temp wise. Nothing comes easy. Especially on March. But its been a fun ride and its going to snow. Life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i wonder what tonight temperature profiles will do to help to hurt initial temperatures, probably almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles EC 950 temps hover right at 0c 12z wed onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just discussing with EasternUSWX - the SREFs are wet wet wet. But a touch warmer than many of us would like to see (GFS-esque) Should be enough to push some of the local WFOs to turn those watches to warnings, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM looks juicier and like it might actually track closer to the coast this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 and further north..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Isn't it getting close to nowcasting time? Check out the radars - precip already forming in southwest VA http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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