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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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I think the GFS ran warm in a few storms earlier in the year. In a close call I wouldn't necessarily flip out about it. Tough call on the edge tho.. DC could get 12" or 1.5".

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I think the GFS ran warm in a few storms earlier in the year. In a close call I wouldn't necessarily flip out about it. Tough call on the edge tho.. DC could get 12" or 1.5".

We've done OK in some marginal situations this year when we've had decent rates. Issue in the storms earlier this winter was the total lack of precip.

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I think the GFS ran warm in a few storms earlier in the year. In a close call I wouldn't necessarily flip out about it. Tough call on the edge tho.. DC could get 12" or 1.5".

 

 

GFS is remarkably cooler down here-- not saying it matters to you, but wow. 

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We've done OK in some marginal situations this year when we've had decent rates. Issue in the storms earlier this winter was the total lack of precip.

 

The NAM dissing goes too far quite often. In this range, and with it not moving much, I'd sorta think it might have the profile better. If it bails in the next few runs along with other guidance then there's trouble...

 

My guess is the Euro either holds or is slightly better than 12z.

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A wildcard will always remain with the deform band. Or any heavy band for that matter. Even with the sne blizzard, I can't think of a single model that pegged central/western ct with precip max. Not apples to apple's but no model is going to nail that.

The pivot and banding will be intense for some of us. My wag is parrs. Good climo location and orographics. Blue ridge and Winchester area have been lasered on the models but somebody in md should get hit pretty good too.

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