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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


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thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles

I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's.

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thanks....we really need 950 temps because that is where the problem lies....plus there is no cold air within 800 miles

I think we have to guess. Sounding should be good. Gfs started sucking at 850 when it was rain/mix. My best guess is nam soundings but proportionate irt 850's.

I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turns into 4-5" after compaction.

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I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn

s into 4-5" after compaction.

Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes.

I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears.

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Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes.

I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears.

 

Pretty much.. prob would also help to be snow before daybreak

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I'd have to imagine they're much better for sure. Lets say .07 falls as rain, that would leave DCA with 1.1" qpf, bringing 7 inches with 7:1. I'm sure people would be ok with that. Even though that 7" probably turn

s into 4-5" after compaction.

Tricky balance here. Gfs/nam has been locked in like I haven't seen in years irt precip. Collateral damage for high precip solution is temp woes.

I suppose best case is just a fair blend at this point but it's still a tightrope. I still think u and me walk away with 6-8 with more high bust potential than low. Get under a sick band and anything can happen. Miss out on all the heavies and walk in the rain to hide your tears.

Agreed. I've had 7"-10" as my Facebook forecast for the past few days. Riding it until 00z Thursday.

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BWI:

 

ED 06Z 06-MAR   1.8    -3.5    1010      78      97    0.04     547     539    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.9    -3.9    1004      97      89    0.33     541     537    WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.7    -4.5    1005      95     100    0.29     539     535    THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.9    -4.7    1011      89      99    0.19     543     533    THU 06Z 07-MAR   2.0    -2.6    1014      87      90    0.08     545     533    THU 12Z 07-MAR   0.5    -3.1    1018      82      58    0.01 

 

IAD

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.1    -2.5    1008      88      99    0.13     547     540    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.1    -3.7    1003      98      97    0.47     538     536    WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.4    -4.8    1006      95     100    0.38     538     534    THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.9    -5.2    1013      90      99    0.22     544     533    THU 06Z 07-MAR   0.8    -3.3    1016      86      70    0.03     546     534  

 

DCA

 

 

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.2    -2.1    1009      87      98    0.11     547     540    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.5    -2.5    1002      98      86    0.41     539     537    WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.0    -4.1    1003      97     100    0.37     537     535    THU 00Z 07-MAR   2.6    -4.6    1011      88      99    0.23     543     533    THU 06Z 07-MAR   2.0    -3.1    1015      86      93    0.07     545     534    THU 12Z 07-MAR  -0.1    -3.6    1018      86      26    0.01     548     534  

 

anyone else care for a dose of (what many would call) disappointment - hit me with your favorite three letters.

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Big takeaway is not adding to gfs 850 confidence. Never want to be fighting uphill with consensus.

Its been a great day. May not feel *perfect* but it never will. Let's just break the f***ing streak and drink gravy from there.

 

Might I suggest everyone in the mid-atlantic shutting off their lights/power for the next 36 hours? This will greatly help in the larger cities...

 

Beyond that, there's really nothing we can do. Personally, I'd rather see a marginal threat...it prepares us for what could be 'worst case.'  I'd probably hate to be on here tomorrow if 850s/9s were modeled to be -8 or better, and then we end up not verifying.

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Might I suggest everyone in the mid-atlantic shutting off their lights/power for the next 36 hours? This will greatly help in the larger cities...

Beyond that, there's really nothing we can do. Personally, I'd rather see a marginal threat...it prepares us for what could be 'worst case.' I'd probably hate to be on here tomorrow if 850s/9s were modeled to be -8 or better, and then we end up not verifying.

Tomorrow is when the real fun starts. We get to compare actual thermals to models. I'm a #s guy too...lol.

And the rap comes into play. Good times never end man.

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Tomorrow is when the real fun starts. We get to compare actual thermals to models. I'm a #s guy too...lol.

And the rap comes into play. Good times never end man.

 

Agreed, I posted a day or two ago about numbers. I'm huge on holding models accountable. Just going on blind data is a terrible idea. I would never trust my financial guy if he said:

 

"Well, we talked it over with the 5 guys here at the firm, one says you have between 100 and 300 dollars, a couple say you have a few thousand, and others say you lost all of your money"

 

I'll say it once more, and then I'm done (not to you, just in general): Take your favorite model from yesterday, look at projected 850s for the time frame that exists now, compare 850s, surface, current observations...Probably a sure fire way to verify is to see what's happening in the MW with your favorite model.

 

Granted, that's not an indicator of what will happen here, tomorrow...this is a tight gradient. But it is an indicator of what you're investing your money in. Same thing you'd do with your investment banker...everyone's profile is different, but you can learn a lot from a little work.

 

Sidenote: I'm A believer in about 80% of the NAMs temperature profiles, and almost wholly in the camp for the GFS' QPF if anyone cares. 

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One last note before I faint from exhaustion. The euro is pasting ORH now. This is good because it's a full cave and the gfs made the euro look like a jv model for the last 2-3 days. DT looking like junior high too.

But now we don't want the euro looking like the gfs temp wise. Nothing comes easy. Especially on March. But its been a fun ride and its going to snow. Life is good.

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