PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the GFS ran warm in a few storms earlier in the year. In a close call I wouldn't necessarily flip out about it. Tough call on the edge tho.. DC could get 12" or 1.5". We've done OK in some marginal situations this year when we've had decent rates. Issue in the storms earlier this winter was the total lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 radars sure are lighting up tonight http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php pretty wild looking radar over the midwest. lots of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wasn't this the same problem in Jan 11? NAM was like this and GFS was a tad warm and there was the fight till the end, which the NAM won? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think the GFS ran warm in a few storms earlier in the year. In a close call I wouldn't necessarily flip out about it. Tough call on the edge tho.. DC could get 12" or 1.5". GFS is remarkably cooler down here-- not saying it matters to you, but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We've done OK in some marginal situations this year when we've had decent rates. Issue in the storms earlier this winter was the total lack of precip. The NAM dissing goes too far quite often. In this range, and with it not moving much, I'd sorta think it might have the profile better. If it bails in the next few runs along with other guidance then there's trouble... My guess is the Euro either holds or is slightly better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What a difference between NAM and GFS right now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref mean snowfall for concurrent 12 hr periods of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A wildcard will always remain with the deform band. Or any heavy band for that matter. Even with the sne blizzard, I can't think of a single model that pegged central/western ct with precip max. Not apples to apple's but no model is going to nail that. The pivot and banding will be intense for some of us. My wag is parrs. Good climo location and orographics. Blue ridge and Winchester area have been lasered on the models but somebody in md should get hit pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think these mid atlantic winter storms were the genesis of internet weather boards. The boards have broadened their products and areas. But This is why we came here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm going to work in Hagerstown Wednesday. I looked carefully at the NAM and I am almost sure the NW Band has a better chance of being over them. Plus, it has 640ft elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro looks like it should be good if you like long duration snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all in I call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 euro looks like it should be good if you like long duration snow events Can you tell anything more? Suspense is killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I call. i was kinda bluffing :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 all in I see your all in and match Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Euro thermals look fine for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can you tell anything more? Suspense is killer looks like it looked.. pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 i was kinda bluffing :/ Banned... lol jk. Change that dang fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like it looked.. pretty darn good I knew it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 looks like it looked.. pretty darn good Great, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Normally I don't do pbp, but since it's the 00z euro and not many people are here, I'll give my weenie input....... Looks like DCA starts as snow???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 it's almost an exact copy of the 12z as far as i care. someone might want to debate a 10 mile change of whatever. the gradient's still a pain in the area we know is a pain. if you're west of d.c you might as well sleep for the next 24 so you can enjoy it. i think dc is fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's between 1 and 1.25" for all of dc metro....i dont have the good profile maps, but undoubtedly colder than the GFS And thats the good news we all wanted to hear,... EE rule in effect Griteater above said thermals were fine for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It's between 1 and 1.25" for all of dc metro....i dont have the good profile maps, but undoubtedly colder than the GFS First .5 falls with surface between 1.2 and 1.5 with 850's between -2.1 and -2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms during the next panel but only to 2.0 with 850's crashed to -4.1...... .37" falls then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 First .5 falls with surface between 1.2 and 1.5 with 850's between -2.1 and -2.5 34 degrees or so... unfortunately without a sounding its hard to tell... sounds like wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms during the next panel but only to 2.0 with 850's crashed to -4.1...... .37" falls then awesome.. we're good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Surface warms again to 2.6 but 850's again lower, now to -4.6...... .23" falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Probably the last precip panel, surface 2.0..... 850's -3.1 and .07 falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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