PhineasC Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 east of you I have a feeling that for whatever reason this is a run that has you really worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 weird run....goofy looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What? Look at the 48 hour total precip at hour 54... All of NOVA is in >1.5... I said than id like .. but ya its definitely better ...down here a portion of that will be rain though I wonder though..if there is a dreaded dry slot awaiting NVA ...anyone have thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 weird run....goofy looking Basically sums up the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 weird run....goofy looking Elucidate for the masses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DCA 1.59" QPF..... sure sucks huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I dont trust the GFS last 2 runs just look goofy....going to ride the euro and hope it looks nam'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have a feeling that for whatever reason this is a run that has you really worried. wtf? I was just telling him where the guy was talking about I have no problem with this one iota NAM/GFS combo is 10-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 weird run....goofy looking I'm pretty sure it is still rain verbatim in DC midday, but it isn't as obvious as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I said than id like .. but ya its definitely better ...down here a portion of that will be rain though I wonder though..if there is a dreaded dry slot awaiting NVA ...anyone have thoughts on that? Seems a little unlikely, given the position of the low on both the GFS and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wow the RGEM looks like it has more snow than past runs FWIW.. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Pops a weird low though at 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The sounding I acquired from the 0Z NAM has NC MD at all snow from 33 hours on. How do the 0z GFS soundings compare to 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS/NAM combo looks great. Does anyone give a rats ass about the EURO later.? Is it now worthless from here on out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty sure it is still rain verbatim in DC midday, but it isn't as obvious as 18z. I wouldn't be shocked by that. But I don't think the GFS is handling BL temps quite as nicely. A quick glance to what was called for from the 12z vs what reality is out there right now is a prime example. DCA should fair well with minimal loss of snow by what I'm seeing sounding wise* *If either the NAM or GFS, or hybrid thereof is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS/NAM combo looks great. Does anyone give a rats ass about the EURO later.? Is it now worthless from here on out? Why would it be worthless now? It's a hi resolution model. If it's good at 90 hours, why would it all of a sudden go bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 weird maps too snow maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why would it be worthless now? It's a hi resolution model. If it's good at 90 hours, why would it all of a sudden go bad? You know, because of - um, well. Because it's nowcasting, and the uh, model doesn't, well - with the thing. GOD. Model fear: The fear that a model will show something they don't want to see. Related terms- Pre-Discounting: To ignore a particular set of data before it exists in the event of a poor outcome. Also see: Pascal's Wager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Why would it be worthless now? It's a hi resolution model. If it's good at 90 hours, why would it all of a sudden go bad? That's why I asked--sorry. Dumb question. My mind is scrambled today! Looks like I might have to lose a little more sleep now. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 weird maps too snow maps!! BEkIq14CEAEcm54.png large.png Can you explain a bit about the left panel? I'm sure I'm just mis-reading it, but everything everyone has said about the 18Z GFS has had it less than snowy across the DC/Baltimore region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hr 36 looks a little stronger, colder, and a hair further southeast than 18Z I feel like I have heard "wetter" in almost every run for the past 36 hours. Got to love it. I expect this to be a rich man's 1/26/11 looking at guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 soundings please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can you explain a bit about the left panel? I'm sure I'm just mis-reading it, but everything everyone has said about the 18Z GFS has had it less than snowy across the DC/Baltimore region. got me. maue posted it .. don't subscribe to wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm pretty sure it is still rain verbatim in DC midday, but it isn't as obvious as 18z. it's just not handling the storm well in general...the precip is goofy and unsmoothed for a global...it does weird sh-it in certain panels....it honesty looks like a low resolution model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 it's just not handling the storm well in general...the precip is goofy and unsmoothed for a global...it does weird sh-it in certain panels....it honesty looks like a low resolution modelEE rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can you explain a bit about the left panel? I'm sure I'm just mis-reading it, but everything everyone has said about the 18Z GFS has had it less than snowy across the DC/Baltimore region. No, model verbatim the 00z GFS is less snowy for the immediate DC metro than the 18z. Less precip and still p-type problems during the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 it's just not handling the storm well in general...the precip is goofy and unsmoothed for a global...it does weird sh-it in certain panels....it honesty looks like a low resolution model I wonder if the factors are weighted differently between the NAM and GFS. We basically have 60kt east winds fighting a precipitation cooled column. If the NAM leans towards microphysics and the GFS more dynamics, that could do it. Who is right? I'd lean NAM, but wouldn't discount either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Should RGEM be used/is it useful in these situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So borderline. DCA area soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Should RGEM be used/is it useful in these situations? Given its recent upgrade, it doesn't really have a track record yet in my mind. We should be checking to see how it performs, but not relying on it for a forecast, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 wow...soundings look awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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