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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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I'm pretty sure it is still rain verbatim in DC midday, but it isn't as obvious as 18z. 

I wouldn't be shocked by that. But I don't think the GFS is handling BL temps quite as nicely.  A quick glance to what was called for from the 12z vs what reality is out there right now is a prime example.  DCA should fair well with minimal loss of snow by what I'm seeing sounding wise*

 

*If either the NAM or GFS, or hybrid thereof is correct.

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Why would it be worthless now?  It's a hi resolution model.  If it's good at 90 hours, why would it all of a sudden go bad?

You know, because of - um, well. Because it's nowcasting, and the uh, model doesn't, well - with the thing. GOD.

 

Model fear: The fear that a model will show something they don't want to see. Related terms- Pre-Discounting: To ignore a particular set of data before it exists in the event of a poor outcome. Also see: Pascal's Wager.

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Why would it be worthless now?  It's a hi resolution model.  If it's good at 90 hours, why would it all of a sudden go bad?

That's why I asked--sorry.  Dumb question.  My mind is scrambled today!  Looks like I might have to lose a little more sleep now. ;-) 

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hr 36 looks a little stronger, colder, and a hair further southeast than 18Z

I feel like I have heard "wetter" in almost every run for the past 36 hours. Got to love it. I expect this to be a rich man's 1/26/11 looking at guidance.

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Can you explain a bit about the left panel? I'm sure I'm just mis-reading it, but everything everyone has said about the 18Z GFS has had it less than snowy across the DC/Baltimore region. 

 

got me. maue posted it .. don't subscribe to wxbell.

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I'm pretty sure it is still rain verbatim in DC midday, but it isn't as obvious as 18z. 

 

it's just not handling the storm well in general...the precip is goofy and unsmoothed for a global...it does weird sh-it in certain panels....it honesty looks like a low resolution model

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it's just not handling the storm well in general...the precip is goofy and unsmoothed for a global...it does weird sh-it in certain panels....it honesty looks like a low resolution model

EE rule
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Can you explain a bit about the left panel? I'm sure I'm just mis-reading it, but everything everyone has said about the 18Z GFS has had it less than snowy across the DC/Baltimore region. 

 

No, model verbatim the 00z GFS is less snowy for the immediate DC metro than the 18z.  Less precip and still p-type problems during the daylight hours. 

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it's just not handling the storm well in general...the precip is goofy and unsmoothed for a global...it does weird sh-it in certain panels....it honesty looks like a low resolution model

 

I wonder if the factors are weighted differently between the NAM and GFS.  We basically have 60kt east winds fighting a precipitation cooled column.  If the NAM leans towards microphysics and the GFS more dynamics, that could do it.  Who is right?  I'd lean NAM, but wouldn't discount either.

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