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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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Very good run for all of us in MD and DC. Still need to look at soundings but 850s look much better. Still maybe a little bit of a mix on the onset, but this run looked nice

 

All snow at DCA after hr 39 per soundings

 

MN_Transplant beat me to it and agrees

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DC is still getting near 1" hr rates 24 hrs after the onset. :lmao:

 The 00Z NAM has just over 1" of liquid QPF for DCA AFTER 18Z Wed...from 18Z Wed through 12Z Thursday.

 

That's one inch AFTER midday Wednesday, at which point the system bombs and any mixing/rain issues come to an end for the Metro region.  I'll take that right now...without having to see what's behind door #2 (GFS) or #3 (ECMWF)   :popcorn:

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Everyone is blitzed on the NAM. I wonder how overdone the qpf is?

 

doesn't the NAM tend to overdo QPF early on? I do notice some weird features that indicate some convective feedback issues on all the models, but I don't think the NAM is really overdone at this point in terms of QPF. For an example of those issues I mentioned, a super band develops near RIC on the hires NAM and diminishes the deform band to the north. Very rarely do you see the deform band move around that drastically in 3 hours.

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NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in

I haven't checked but I am guessing the GFS is probably an outlier with its significantly more amped up solution? I haven't compared pressures model by model

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NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in

 

you're absolutely right, all the players are within the NAM domain (not dealing with any boundary condition issues with a regional model, especially with a quasi-static block in the the NE)...you could argue its QPF is high but most of the globals have precip max in a similar range. 

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NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in

I believe the NAM should be the model of choice right now. One, it's been absolutely rock steady, and I think it is usually best with temps in close.

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