LongRanger Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 anyone expecting these snowfall numbers to equal the snow depth in their backyard is going to be very disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 before I get a storm of people angry for saying that, I should clarify that the sref is north with the precip sheild NOT the storm track. This is the normal period where models figure out the extent of the precip on the northern edge will be further then they thought initially. LOL...well, you just answered my question above! Thanks. What you said makes sense about models adjusting the precip shield extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Despite DTs facebook scolding of this forum, he basically has the DC-Balt region in 8-12" of snow...pretty bullish for a guy that seemed like the southern track would prevail Are you actually looking for logic in anything from DT? I take great pride in him banning me from his facebook threads after I told him that I was sick of him over-hyping everything instead of being realistic like the Mets in this forum. He has been unprofessional ever since he was on Wright-Weather, but now he makes things up to impress his blind followers (typically students and mom's that have no knowledge of even the basics of meteorology so they they can't tell him when he is wrong, that's how he likes it lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 anyone expecting these snowfall numbers to equal the snow depth in their backyard is going to be very disappointed What snowfall numbers??? I think most people have realistic expectations. 4-8 in the cities is probably a good bet, west of there, dramatic increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Now I confused myself, if you read the bottom of the map it says precipitation accumulation so I think 75-100 is 7.5" to 10". So up on the Skyline it will be 60-80"????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF is not north, but its definitely west of the last run. at 48 hours SLP is 996 right over the southern tip of the delmarva. ON the last run it was about 50 miles east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref might even be a little north again, gets significant precip well into central PA now Yup, I even see a little 2" bullseye in Taunton,MA. Full Tilt baby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF is not north, but its definitely west of the last run. at 48 hours SLP is 996 right over the southern tip of the delmarva. ON the last run it was about 50 miles east of there. Not a good sign then, further west, the more it will support the GFS thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So up on the Skyline it will be 60-80"????????? Good gosh no... If your going to post here, at least make sure you can read a basic precip map! 6-8" is a tropical storm, 0.6 to 0.8 is what we're looking at here. For future refrence most if not all precip maps are in hundredths of an inch. So 100 would be 1" and 75 would be .75 and 10" would be 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 before I get a storm of people angry for saying that, I should clarify that the sref is north with the precip sheild NOT the storm track. This is the normal period where models figure out the extent of the precip on the northern edge will be further then they thought initially. LOL. I enjoy your posts but models can't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not a good sign then, further west, the more it will support the GFS thermals. possibly, but there is more going on then just that. At some point the storm is going to transition as it phases some, but the GFS has it get stuck during this process...gets the best vv's and precip well away from the storm for a bit, and takes a long time to get it reorganized. Thus a sucky thermal profile. THe NAM and SREF show a more compact and better organized solution, and thus more snow even with a similar track. Its not as simple as the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 before I get a storm of people angry for saying that, I should clarify that the sref is north with the precip sheild NOT the storm track. This is the normal period where models figure out the extent of the precip on the northern edge will be further then they thought initially. LOL. I enjoy your posts but models can't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREF is not north, but its definitely west of the last run. at 48 hours SLP is 996 right over the southern tip of the delmarva. ON the last run it was about 50 miles east of there. Not a good sign then, further west, the more it will support the GFS thermals. But it was already established that it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nam at 12 is a little further south with regard to the 850 line and the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 possibly, but there is more going on then just that. At some point the storm is going to transition as it phases some, but the GFS has it get stuck during this process...gets the best vv's and precip well away from the storm for a bit, and takes a long time to get it reorganized. Thus a sucky thermal profile. THe NAM and SREF show a more compact and better organized solution, and thus more snow even with a similar track. Its not as simple as the track. are you getting nervous about a mix out here for a few hours at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good gosh no... If your going to post here, at least make sure you can read a basic precip map! 6-8" is a tropical storm, 0.6 to 0.8 is what we're looking at here. For future refrence most if not all precip maps are in hundredths of an inch. So 100 would be 1" and 75 would be .75 and 10" would be 1000. hahaha he is referring to the little dot of 400-600 on the 18z HiRes NAM. Which would be 6"-8" which is 60"-80" of snow. He read the map correctly, probably just making fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And at 15 the low is now exactly in the same spot at 15 as 18z 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Winter Storm Warnings up for WV Panhandle Westward... MDZ003-501-502-VAZ028-030-031-WVZ050>053-503-504-051000- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/ WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND... WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN... ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY 848 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CERTAINTY OF HEAVY SNOW...THE WARNING HAS NOW REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TAKE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ENSURE YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR TRUNK. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 @15 looks faster, may benefit us by keeping it further from the coast and moving that warm nose out h5 is different though... 18z at 21 had the two s/w's phasing... 00z at 15 doesn't -- still has them separate Not that it makes much difference at 21 on 00z.. its almost exact same, a few miles NW of 18z 27 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just a tad slower through 21hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting read: http://www.americanwx.com/_/articles/winter-analysis/march-lion-r20 Says that historically with AO-/PNA+ storms dropping 4"+ of snow in DC have missed Boston/NYC 4 out of 5 times in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just a tad slower through 21hrs. Looks pretty much the same through 24... ULL block a slight bit stronger as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 are you getting nervous about a mix out here for a few hours at least? Only way we mix is if precip is light. During heavy rates we get snow. If its raining hard in this area at some point then things have gone horribly wrong somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 slightly colder in terms of 850 freezing line around MD its slightly south of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Low is identical, but 850 line is much further south compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 More amped up than 18z. Will start later, hopefully that means come back futher north later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 A little slower from the NAM this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Appears early on holding energy back and slower through 24. A bit more blocking from the hp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 More amped up than 18z. Will start later, hopefully that means come back futher north later in the run. It doesnt look that much more amped... perhaps a lil bit. The ULL block is helping as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Vort definitely held back more on 27 vs 18z. Southern Illinois now vs western Kentucky earlier. Not sure what that will mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.