Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have the 18z ensembles come out yet? Either way, it looks to me that at hour 54 with the surface low due east of us, we should be getting pummeled as the storm is winding up and we 're getting a more NNE wind or at least NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT is all in https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=495777197136210&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Wow. Bullish. And it looks like he took a blend of all guidance. Didnt ride the Euro with that one. Nice map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have the 18z ensembles come out yet? Either way, it looks to me that at hour 54 with the surface low due east of us, we should be getting pummeled as the storm is winding up and we 're getting a more NNE wind or at least NE wind. You should pay no attention to the GEFS at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Despite DTs facebook scolding of this forum, he basically has the DC-Balt region in 8-12" of snow...pretty bullish for a guy that seemed like the southern track would prevail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We'll likely have a much better idea on the final track as the two shortwaves over the Plains begin to phase tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/ploop.html Out of curiousity what are is the unit of measurement for the above model? It can't be mm or inches soo...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/ploop.html Out of curiousity what are is the unit of measurement for the above model? It can't be mm or inches soo...... I believe it's inches, just put a decimal 2 places over (ex 150 becomes 1.50) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/ploop.html Out of curiousity what are is the unit of measurement for the above model? It can't be mm or inches soo...... It's inches, for example the 75-100 is .75-.1" QPF. It's the Nam it is an American model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/ploop.html Out of curiousity what are is the unit of measurement for the above model? It can't be mm or inches soo...... I believe it's in tenths of an inch of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4_18z/ploop.html Out of curiousity what are is the unit of measurement for the above model? It can't be mm or inches soo...... I think 175 = 1.75 inches and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think 175 = 1.75 inches and so on. Now I confused myself, if you read the bottom of the map it says precipitation accumulation so I think 75-100 is 7.5" to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS look about the same as last run to these weenie eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS average of 13" for both BWI and DC. Give me half and Ill still be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Now I confused myself, if you read the bottom of the map it says precipitation accumulation so I think 75-100 is 7.5" to 10". Oh I thought this was liquid equivalent. I'm not sure it's snow accumulation. I think E-wall uses a similar scale like that. With 175 = 1.75 liquid equal. 50 = 0.50 inch. Maybe we are thinking the same thing - because yes after the typical 10:1 ratio that would yield 7.5-10 inches of snow. But I think it's liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks guys. I think it must be like the qpf so 175-200 would be 1.75 to 2.00. If so that is indeed a lot of moisture off of the 18z Hi Res NAM with the jackpot of 2-3 in northwest MD. Also, fwiw the hires nam basically keeps the p type as snow for those north and west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT is way too bullish for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS average of 13" for both BWI and DC. Give me half and Ill still be happy. no you wont. Nobody will be happy with 7 if the models give us 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Srefs look good, 850's look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT is way too bullish for us. I'm thinking you guys will do better than you are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS average of 13" for both BWI and DC. Give me half and Ill still be happy. Really? I think that's actually a tad more than the 15Z, not that it matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Srefs look good, 850's look good. Are they as cold as 15Z SREF and 18Z NAM, out of curiosity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 SREFS look about the same as last run to these weenie eyes What about temps upstairs? More like gfs or nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What about temps upstairs? More like gfs or nam? The upstairs look good to me. I cant get a good read on the downstairs on the NCEP graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What about temps upstairs? More like gfs or nam? It does almost seem funny to be parsing the SREF compared to the last run of the GFS! But it would be nice to see something to indicate the 18Z GFS was a bit off the rails in terms of thermal profiles. Precip on the GFS was fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref might even be a little north again, gets significant precip well into central PA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z NAM out to hour 5.... blazing speed this go around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sref might even be a little north again, gets significant precip well into central PA now North with precip field or the entire system in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What about temps upstairs? More like gfs or nam? Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 before I get a storm of people angry for saying that, I should clarify that the sref is north with the precip sheild NOT the storm track. This is the normal period where models figure out the extent of the precip on the northern edge will be further then they thought initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What about temps upstairs? More like gfs or nam? 850s looked that same as I recall them though I didn't do a frame by frame comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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