Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the one upside is it is on the euro timing where the snow doesnt end until like 3 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 well since we love snow maps.. the 18z mean looks better than 12z and way better than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not. Look..at the very least, this'll ground us and stop the talk of 10" etc Yes but thr trends are disturbing, especially this close to lock in, nowcast mode. The last thing I want to see this evolve into is a discussion as to whether or not we can even get 1-3" of slop toward the very end, like after dark tomorrow. I'd rather not go there. Not considering the ride we've been on the last 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes but thr trends are disturbing, especially this close to lock in, nowcast mode. The last thing I want to see this evolve into is a discussion as to whether or not we can even get 1-3" of slop toward the very end, like after dark tomorrow. I'd rather not go there. Not considering the ride we've been on the last 24-48 hours. Very true. It's all relative, and my expectations are jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 well since we love snow maps.. the 18z mean looks better than 12z and way better than the op 18Z hi-res NAM is crushes the area from I-95 west with over a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe worry about the Op, but I certainly wouldn't worry about the GEFS 36 hours from storm start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes but thr trends are disturbing, especially this close to lock in, nowcast mode. The last thing I want to see this evolve into is a discussion as to whether or not we can even get 1-3" of slop toward the very end, like after dark tomorrow. I'd rather not go there. Not considering the ride we've been on the last 24-48 hours. Completely agree. but we have to move the goal posts. 6" is my mark...and it's realistic at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes but thr trends are disturbing, especially this close to lock in, nowcast mode. The last thing I want to see this evolve into is a discussion as to whether or not we can even get 1-3" of slop toward the very end, like after dark tomorrow. I'd rather not go there. Not considering the ride we've been on the last 24-48 hours. But, that might be the right answer after all. That would be unfortunate, but it is what it is. I feel like this happens every big storm: we're charting towards biblical hit and then something happens to bring us back to earth and then we get merely a significant hit. I don't get the angst, since tracking swings in the models is part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes but thr trends are disturbing, especially this close to lock in, nowcast mode. The last thing I want to see this evolve into is a discussion as to whether or not we can even get 1-3" of slop toward the very end, like after dark tomorrow. I'd rather not go there. Not considering the ride we've been on the last 24-48 hours. I agree. Last thing we want is to wake up Wednesday morning with slush to driving cold rain, then hope for a couple inches on the back side that night. That would be a crushing blow for something that really has been shaping up to be a major winter event here for the past couple of days. I know some of the exteme weenieness in people may have been seriously thinking 12" or more in DC was a "lock". But other than that, I actually don't think it was really out of the realm of possibility to talk about a double-digit snow in DC (or DCA), certainly on the order of 6-10" was not unreasonable. I think even some of HPC's probabilities weren't bad for 8"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Outside of 12/18z gfs, what other guidance has the same look irt to temps? I know the euro/nam were fine. I can't remember anything else showing such a long duration mix/rain during the day wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Has this been posted? From the 3:28pm disco: "NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET AS MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD NOT REACHWARNING CRITERIA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THISWILL BE RE-EVALUATED ON THE EVENING SHIFT PENDING 12Z ECMWF ANDADDITIONAL GUIDANCE." Didn't they already have the 12z ECMWF at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00Z will ease our concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think everyone is giving the 18z run a bit more credence than it deserves after DTK and some others admonished us...we all know it is a goofy run here...I doubt we get a driving rainstorm and I doubt Boston gets 5" of liquid Seriously? I didn't admonish anyone, I was simply trying to give information from the perspective of someone that works on data assimilation for a living. You are entitled to your opinion. There has been a bit more discussion on this over in the Met101 section for people that are interested (in a thread called meteorlogy [sic], or something). But whatever, carry on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would the 18z GFS look a lot less credible if the nam held on, or not really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But, that might be the right answer after all. That would be unfortunate, but it is what it is. I feel like this happens every big storm: we're charting towards biblical hit and then something happens to bring us back to earth and then we get merely a significant hit. I don't get the angst, since tracking swings in the models is part of the fun. I see what you're saying and generally agree, but 1-3" of slop at the end would hardly be significant. Even for March. I don't expect Biblical proportions, but the past couple days has been looking like a really significant event here. Would be awful to see that slip through our fingers and end up with mostly cold rain. But we'll see, no real point getting too wrapped around an axle, I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would the 18z GFS look a lot less credible if the nam held on, or not really? The NAM held on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM held on. I meant the 0z NAM, I'm trying to figure out whether to stay up for the GFS or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS can underdo cad a bit. It's the euro temps that have me worried. 1.8C @ IAD would not be good for IAD or DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think our problem is that the GFS slows the vort down so much before it gets to ORF that it draws in a lot of warm air the NAM doesn't slow down the vort until it gets to ORF and then gets stacked move the vort a few hours faster on the GFS and it'll make a world of diff I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 00Z will ease our concerns. This is we we gotta hope to some extent that DT is just once right about the northern "actual" movement and the "actual" crappiness the 18z suite has..What is at oz, this thing is further south and east...the low...then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I meant the 0z NAM, I'm trying to figure out whether to stay up for the GFS or not the GFS initializes at 10:30....unless you are 80 years old or you have to be at work at 3am and you operate heavy machinery, you should stay up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Completely agree. but we have to move the goal posts. 6" is my mark...and it's realistic at least. Time for an adjustment. I expect 1 to 4 inches in mby. I'll take what I can get and be content. Tracking this was exhilarating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes but thr trends are disturbing, especially this close to lock in, nowcast mode. The last thing I want to see this evolve into is a discussion as to whether or not we can even get 1-3" of slop toward the very end, like after dark tomorrow. I'd rather not go there. Not considering the ride we've been on the last 24-48 hours. Agreed that the trend is not our friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think our problem is that the GFS slows the vort down so much before it gets to ORF that it draws in a lot of warm air the NAM doesn't slow down the vort until it gets to ORF and then gets stacked move the vort a few hours faster on the GFS and it'll make a world of diff I think I would be interested in hearing red taggers discuss what is causing the difference in speed, and which option they would lean towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I would be interested in hearing red taggers discuss what is causing the difference in speed, and which option they would lean towards. Translation: I want someone other than a weenie to tell me the 18z GFS is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I think our problem is that the GFS slows the vort down so much before it gets to ORF that it draws in a lot of warm air the NAM doesn't slow down the vort until it gets to ORF and then gets stacked move the vort a few hours faster on the GFS and it'll make a world of diff I think Very good point. Because of the inland stall gfs keeps best bands of precip a little west of cities too for much of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Translation: I want someone other than a weenie to tell me the 18z GFS is wrong. The GFS keeps the 850 south of DC. When the energy transfers, the 850 goes berzerk and DC could get heaby deformation zone snow at that particular time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT is all in https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=495777197136210&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18Z NAM is actually pretty darn good I posted this over in the banter thread, but I think it needs repeating that these graphs are very accurate to the soundings imho http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=nam&time=current&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT is all in https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=495777197136210&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater That's pretty overdone for DC, NOVA, and central MD, but not outright horrendous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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