Symblized Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would you mind posting BWI? Well, here's 15z at BWI since its worse than 12z (which looks like snow to me). Also still sucks at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, they are utterly useless in borderline cases. 12z sounding near DC GFS_3_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png look at the surface winds....due east that's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BWI...snow to rain to snow WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.1 -1.7 1008 89 99 0.19 547 541 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.9 -1.3 1001 99 97 0.25 540 539 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.0 -0.5 998 99 98 0.37 535 537 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.9 -1.6 1002 98 98 0.53 537 536 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.1 -1.5 1006 93 98 0.30 539 534 THU 12Z 07-MAR -0.7 -3.6 1010 90 93 0.03 542 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 look...we can deal with a rain to snow scenario where we know we will get annihilated once everything crashes or we can get the old scenario where the ULL gets crushed southeast like a 7th grader into his locker...I'll take the former if those are the 2 choices I would take an all (or mostly) snow scenario like many of the runs were indicating 24 hours ago, and even a few are still showing now. Always hate to waste several hours of heavy QPF to wait for the low to pull ever so slowly away and finally allow for more manufactured cold air to filter in. Although, to your point, that is what happened in Jan 2011, right? Still, with that kind of easterly component (strong negative U wind anomaly), in early March, how can we not have issues at the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS_3_2013030418_F33_39.5000N_78.0000W.pngGFS_3_2013030418_F36_39.5000N_78.0000W.png Yeah. We are good Trix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Per soundings, its warm from 900mb to the surface from 9Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What percent snow is IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This was my map from earlier today. Tough call and being conservative right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice map. Surprised you dont think higher in HGR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah. We are good Trix. Doesn't look to bad in FDK either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice map. Surprised you dont think higher in HGR? I have the 8" contour close to HGR so definitely thinking higher range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would take an all (or mostly) snow scenario like many of the runs were indicating 24 hours ago, and even a few are still showing now. Always hate to waste several hours of heavy QPF to wait for the low to pull ever so slowly away and finally allow for more manufactured cold air to filter in. Although, to your point, that is what happened in Jan 2011, right? Still, with that kind of easterly component (strong negative U wind anomaly), in early March, how can we not have issues at the start? i thought ocean temps are actually coldest around this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unless I'm reading the 18Z GFS Skew-Ts wrong, it's not ever a snow sounding at IAD the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If you're west and elevated you're pretty much locked in unless something crazy happens. Otherwise.. no reason not to be conservative at least to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyway.. this is a good time to go back to hugging the Euro. The GFS sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So, 36 or so hours from the event, which model do we choose (out of the two American). The much maligned , but in it's sweet range, NAM? Or the rock steady, reliable, GFS? 2 completely different scenarios - yet not too far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If you're west and elevated you're pretty much locked in unless something crazy happens. Otherwise.. no reason not to be conservative at least to a degree. The colder runs recently had us stop talking about the idea of an insane gradient (it's been smoothed out more in the past 24-hours), but there's of course still the possibility of an Ash-Wednesday type gradient-- 3 sloppy inches in downtown (that picture in the Washington Weather book from 12th and M St is so sad) with lots of rain while somewhere in the not-so-distant west goes over 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think everyone is giving the 18z run a bit more credence than it deserves after DTK and some others admonished us...we all know it is a goofy run here...I doubt we get a driving rainstorm and I doubt Boston gets 5" of liquid Agreed. It's concerning...it's not like we want to see what it produced...but the GFS has consistently been warmer and northerly. The current blend still favors a mainly snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro Touche! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The colder runs recently had us stop talking about the idea of an insane gradient (it's been smoothed out more in the past 24-hours), but there's of course still the possibility of an Ash-Wednesday type gradient-- 3 sloppy inches in downtown (that picture in the Washington Weather book from 12th and M St is so sad) with lots of rain while somewhere in the not-so-distant west goes over 20". yeah--agreed. i'm still sorta focused on the 5" mark for DC.. not that sold either way. im not jumping off any cliffs over the 18z GFS tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yeah--agreed. i'm still sorta focused on the 5" mark for DC.. not that sold either way. im not jumping off any cliffs over the 18z GFS tho. Me neither...but definitely upset because I thought it was locked in. To me a SN-RN-SN storm is only as good as that last third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yeah--agreed. i'm still sorta focused on the 5" mark for DC.. not that sold either way. im not jumping off any cliffs over the 18z GFS tho.The GFS suggests that for downtown DC, instead of snow and 32 to 35 degrees during the day, you may have snow and 33 to 36 degrees. Slop until the CAA after sunset Wednesday eve. Here in Reisterstown, I'm expecting 6" to 10" but then we are 18 miles south of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS suggests that for downtown DC, instead of snow and 32 to 35 degrees during the day, you may have snow and 33 to 36 degrees. Slop until the CAA after sunset Wednesday eve. What are your thoughts up our way? I'm still trying to figure out how much this 18z GFS "warmth" affects central Balt county and whether we have precip type issues EDIT: thanks, that's what I'm thinking too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What are your thoughts up our way? I'm still trying to figure out how much this 18z GFS "warmth" affects central Balt county and whether we have precip type issues If what other posters are suggesting is correct (forecast soundings that depict driving east winds with much of the boundary layer), west is better than east. NW Baltimore County should be better than East Baltimore County. West Carroll County could be amazing, i.e. west of Westminster. I can envision a warm nose being pulled off the Atlantic and the stronger the storm wraps up, the further west that warm nose will get pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 yeah--agreed. i'm still sorta focused on the 5" mark for DC.. not that sold either way. im not jumping off any cliffs over the 18z GFS tho. Nobody should be jumping off a cliff over the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ensemble mean is ugly How ugly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ensemble mean is ugly Post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 dont look at the GEFS I'm not. Look..at the very least, this'll ground us and stop the talk of 10" etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 dont look at the GEFS That most current release is 12 Z is it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 well since we love snow maps.. the 18z mean looks better than 12z and way better than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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