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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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have you already checked the soundings? I'm not convinced that all of the sudden rates and dynamics are overcome by warm air. GFS has trended warmer but NAM and Euro not as warm. Shortsighted to freak out by this IMO.

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Where can I find better (more detailed) thickness charts?  

 

As a reminder, critical thickness values for snow:

 

1000-850:  <1295 gpm

850-700:  <1520 gpm

1000-500:  <5400 gpm

 

I've heard the 1000-850 mb critical thickness at 1290 and 1300 dm, so 1295 is a good average.  Obviously, the lower you are, the better.  This time of year it's typically the 1000-850 mb thickness that does us in given the higher sun angle/warmer boundary layer temps.

 

The 850-700 mb critical thickness is 1530-1540 I believe.  

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Yeah, but it's also been the front runner. Matches the trends of the other models of phasing a little quicker and keeping the low closer to the coast. If it stays that tucked in, there will be major mixing issues close to the coast I would imagine.

I really think the NAM has been the front runner. Not a contest, but it may give a hint as to where to lean on temps.

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Just checked the 850 low and 700 low tracks, and while the 850 low tracks south of DC, the 700 RH chart shows dry slot just east of DC so rates may lighten up in DC and maybe N/W suburbs to flip to rain temporarily.  Should change back to snow, though, when it cranks.

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you seem focused on maps....do you think their alogrithms have any value versus just looking at soundings and using some judgment

I think they're ok to get trends etc and the ones I ref match soundings more or less plus they come out way sooner. There are some issues here treated too black and white.

I've mostly mentioned them bc I have fast access and people are interested except when they aren't as good.

You know this but this type of run is exactly why no one should be forecasting double digits into the city at this pt.

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BWI...snow to rain to snow

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.1    -1.7    1008      89      99    0.19     547     541    WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.9    -1.3    1001      99      97    0.25     540     539    WED 18Z 06-MAR   3.0    -0.5     998      99      98    0.37     535     537    THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.9    -1.6    1002      98      98    0.53     537     536    THU 06Z 07-MAR   1.1    -1.5    1006      93      98    0.30     539     534    THU 12Z 07-MAR  -0.7    -3.6    1010      90      93    0.03     542     535    
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look...we can deal with a rain to snow scenario where we know we will get annihilated once everything crashes or we can get the old scenario where the ULL gets crushed southeast like a 7th grader into his locker...I'll take the former if those are the 2 choices

 

I would take an all (or mostly) snow scenario like many of the runs were indicating 24 hours ago, and even a few are still showing now. Always hate to waste several hours of heavy QPF to wait for the low to pull ever so slowly away and finally allow for more manufactured cold air to filter in.  Although, to your point, that is what happened in Jan 2011, right? 

 

Still, with that kind of easterly component (strong negative U wind anomaly), in early March, how can we not have issues at the start?

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