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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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there are going to be issues wednesday morning....we have to just deal with it whatever they are.....there is a lot of support to keep accumulations reasonable for DC....once we get ripping in the PM we should be fine....a good 0.9" or so falls as all snow by my estimate...

Ok, cool.  .9 as snow with poor ratios would be something like 6"

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Ok, cool.  .9 as snow with poor ratios would be something like 6"

 

6 inches of snow would be ideal.  I think we shouldn't freak out about the rain/snow line.  It's going to be close to DC.  It's early March!  We shouldn't be surprised by this.  It looks like we can get 2-4+ in DC even with the warmer solutions verifying.  If it turns out a little cooler we can talk 6+. 

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even on this run we are probably ripping snow by 2-3pm.....I'm not convinced we are going to get a driving rainstorm all day even with these warmer runs...and if we do..oh well

 

I don't buy it either, but it is a situation we have to consider.  I think your snow precip estimate is pretty good.  Basically about 0.5" falls before 09z, then we get about 1" of rain until 21z, and then another 0.5" after that as snow.

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have you already checked the soundings? I'm not convinced that all of the sudden rates and dynamics are overcome by warm air. GFS has trended warmer but NAM and Euro not as warm. Shortsighted to freak out by this IMO.

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Where can I find better (more detailed) thickness charts?  

 

As a reminder, critical thickness values for snow:

 

1000-850:  <1295 gpm

850-700:  <1520 gpm

1000-500:  <5400 gpm

 

I've heard the 1000-850 mb critical thickness at 1290 and 1300 dm, so 1295 is a good average.  Obviously, the lower you are, the better.  This time of year it's typically the 1000-850 mb thickness that does us in given the higher sun angle/warmer boundary layer temps.

 

The 850-700 mb critical thickness is 1530-1540 I believe.  

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Yeah, but it's also been the front runner. Matches the trends of the other models of phasing a little quicker and keeping the low closer to the coast. If it stays that tucked in, there will be major mixing issues close to the coast I would imagine.

I really think the NAM has been the front runner. Not a contest, but it may give a hint as to where to lean on temps.

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Just checked the 850 low and 700 low tracks, and while the 850 low tracks south of DC, the 700 RH chart shows dry slot just east of DC so rates may lighten up in DC and maybe N/W suburbs to flip to rain temporarily.  Should change back to snow, though, when it cranks.

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you seem focused on maps....do you think their alogrithms have any value versus just looking at soundings and using some judgment

I think they're ok to get trends etc and the ones I ref match soundings more or less plus they come out way sooner. There are some issues here treated too black and white.

I've mostly mentioned them bc I have fast access and people are interested except when they aren't as good.

You know this but this type of run is exactly why no one should be forecasting double digits into the city at this pt.

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