Solo2 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Clown maps must have a large portion as rain: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif Strange looking from HGR to FDK. Winchester FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 please let it be all snow <because I'm a sick weenie!> Can't wait for the soundings to see exactly what percentage of that is snow. Then I need someone to tell me the ratios will be better than 5 or 6 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Aside from the long duration, look at the classic look to the precip. field. the structure is amazing on this run. You would also have to think we would get quite cold the last 6-8 hours of the strom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Clown maps must have a large portion as rain: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif that is the most snow for BWI on those clown maps yet I don't know what that one uses but it is way, way more conservative with rain/snow calculation than any other all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 B..E..C..S: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the coolwx graphs are the closest in figuring out rain/snow/sleet using actual soundings than any other map/converter out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone knows NAM has a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys are going to roll your eyes but JB gets credit. He said back in Mid February that he expected the early March pattern to yield some kind of "superstorm" for the Mid Atlantic. This is pretty darn close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys are going to roll your eyes but JB gets credit. He said back in Mid February that he expected the early March pattern to yield some kind of "superstorm" for the Mid Atlantic. This is pretty darn close but let's go back and see how many times he said the same thing and nothing happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Clown maps must have a large portion as rain: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif Would be brutal punishment to the DC crew if that verified. I mean, that could happen..who knows...but with those punishing UVV's, I'm not sure. I don't know what the algorithm calculates to get that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 that is the most snow for BWI on those clown maps yet I don't know what that one uses but it is way, way more conservative with rain/snow calculation than any other all along I don't this sounding would be rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temps are looking to be more and more of a problem for the DC and Baltimore crew as this thing keeps coming north. Loudoun and West should do amazing but I'd be sweating in it the near DC or Baltimore suburbs right now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) but don't we want 975mb to be 0 or less to be certain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DCA soundings... 39 I think is snow but 42 should be snow 39 -- http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013030418_F39_39.0000N_77.0000W.png 42 -- http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) Fook the clown maps. 8"? I think we can do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't this sounding would be rain? *snip image* That's all snow. DCA soundings... 39 I think is snow but 42 should be snow 39 -- http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013030418_F39_39.0000N_77.0000W.png 42 -- http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Your pushing Sleet/Snow at hr 39 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) Is that DCA or NW DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah I'm sorry but I can't see a lot of that being just rain for DC. Even east of there will see accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For all freaking out about the snow maps Instant Weather Maps has done pretty good with them and they have DC and central MD at 14-16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is that DCA or NW DC? its from twisterdata and its the gridpoint just NE of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) They are really good, especially after 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where is IAN? He's the clown................map expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temps are looking to be more and more of a problem for the DC and Baltimore crew as this thing keeps coming north. Loudoun and West should do amazing but I'd be sweating in it the near DC or Baltimore suburbs right now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif Does anyone feel concerned that this is not all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Way overdone likely. Ot but imagine the coastal community beatdown up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thread is getting cluttered with bad analysis. Let the mets do ptype and sounding analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For all freaking out about the snow maps Instant Weather Maps has done pretty good with them and they have DC and central MD at 14-16 inches. It's that time again. 18z NAM total snowfall from IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this isn't scientific at all, but going by "feel"...i just don't see how a lot of this can be rain. we've had a nice airmass in place for the last few days. it "feels" like a snowstorm is coming, not a rainstorm. this isn't like march 2001 when i was out in shorts and a t-shirt the day before they were calling for a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temps are looking to be more and more of a problem for the DC and Baltimore crew as this thing keeps coming north. Loudoun and West should do amazing but I'd be sweating in it the near DC or Baltimore suburbs right now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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