arlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG 239 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE WIND MAY ALSO LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AS TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES BECOME WEIGHED DOWN BY THE SNOW. * WINDS...EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think its a lil early... but CTP just went Winter Storm Warning for Somerset/Bedford/Fulton along the PA/MD border directly north of Washington and Frederick counties in MD. Warnings are for 6 to 12 inches (includes Laurel Mts) PIT did same for Garrett/Preston/Tucker -- 8-14 inches there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some people do have to drive between Pittsburgh/southcentral PA and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm still waiting for the SREFs to come out with a 2" qpf blob encircling DCA, Central MD and Baltimore like they did for 12/19/09 anything short of that will be a disappointment :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro ens mean nudged north slightly too.. good clobbering. no se jog of low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ens mean gets DC iinto 1"+.. .75"+ just south of PA border. snow totals a bit lighter than op overall but 4-8" further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is definitely a consensus for a significant storm now for the mid atlantic region. Have to start paying close detail to the minute details. Ratios snow growth banding boundary layer how much qpf might be overdone etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro ens mean nudged north slightly too.. good clobbering. no se jog of low. I suspect that SE jog is wrong, one reason is the op euro keeps pushing that further east and lessening the effect, plus I have seen that before many times on the model but not usually does it end up verifying. Not sure why the euro seems to do that a lot. Maybe someone with more knowledge of the dynamics of each model could give a hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skel Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 One Time Dealer!!!! Give us some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is definitely a consensus for a significant storm now for the mid atlantic region. Have to start paying close detail to the minute details. Ratios snow growth banding boundary layer how much qpf might be overdone etc. and it's moving north of us too, which is a real shocker in my book I would have never thought this had a chance to effect people in NE, but it likely will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm still waiting for the SREFs to come out with a 2" qpf blob encircling DCA, Central MD and Baltimore like they did for 12/19/09 anything short of that will be a disappointment :weenie: Without coming out of the sw juiced up on stj roids it's going to be tough to max like that. At least imo. I think we've seen the top end qpf models already and expecting more is pushing it. One of the reasons we are already seeing such large qpf's is the speed is slow compared to similar storms and there is are some serious dynamics on the nw side of the comma. No matter which way you slice it, there is going to be a sick sick deform band rotating trough and it won't be racing out either. My avatar is actually a self portrait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through 24, 18z NAM looks similar to 12z on the h5 panels... perhaps a smidge slower and NW on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With the way you long time locals talk about pepco go look up the blizzard damage in the se mass area from the blizzard. They got a paste job and some members of the board didn't have power for a week. Winds were significantly stronger there however, but those are examples of already storm hardened communities that were hammered. At least a lot of the deadwood and trees were taken down here locally between the derecho and sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 does anyone know what the temps and dewpoint around the area are looking like during the projected start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Through 24, 18z NAM looks similar to 12z on the h5 panels... perhaps a smidge slower and NW on the 18z Its just barely SW of the 12z when comparyng panels side by side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 stronger at 30 hours....maybe 50 miles south of 12z. Holding course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 and it's moving north of us too, which is a real shocker in my book I would have never thought this had a chance to effect people in NE, but it likely will I don't think come Thursday sne will have a huge coup over us in snow totals. I think with this track id rather be in the mid atlantic. This storm goes boom over our heads and its stacked. The metros and just nw are in the modeled sweet spot. I personally would pick Westminster as a place to be. I think Carroll sits pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think the discussions will fire up again when DCA measures 3.5" and Glenmont 7.5" with apparently the same snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks wetter vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks wetter vs 12z yep, and a hair slower at 33 vs. 39, but that has been the trend with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 even 33 hr sim rad is impressive http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 At 36 it's much wetter then 12z with identical low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I gather we are discussing the 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I gather we are discussing the 12z EURO? 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM going to be super juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 a tad stronger....looking identical to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 39 identical low placement with heavy precip on DC's doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Could someone tell me what my temp looks like please I would really appreciate it I have heavy rates and the 850 line right on top of me with .75 falling in a 6 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think come Thursday sne will have a huge coup over us in snow totals. I think with this track id rather be in the mid atlantic. This storm goes boom over our heads and its stacked. The metros and just nw are in the modeled sweet spot. I personally would pick Westminster as a place to be. I think Carroll sits pretty. If the deform band gets up here yea, but right now I would pick somewhere in NW VA with a little elevation if I had to pick one spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Verbatim its tough to tell whether the track is a touch south through 36 or just even slower looking at 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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