87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We should probably step away from overanalyzing bl temp stuff a little bit. Gfs threw a thermal curve so it will be interesting to see what the next couple runs do with the trend. Current airmass is very dry and cold for this time of year. We can use actual obs and balloon data along with short range models to make common sense decisions tomorrow. Warmth shouldn't be deep. Wetbulb temps leading into precip is an important part of nowcasting. Every degree means a lot this time. I know many know this already. Figured I'd say something before euro temps get drilled on. it really is...even with the sun shining today, it's still brisk for this time of year. tomorrow looks like the calm before the storm so it may not be quite as chilly out, but nice that we're not preceding this event with mid 50 temps and warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now here's something that hasn't been discussed: stormstart and end timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The last 3 runs of the euro at the same time 9z Th. Yeah ok DT, it didn't move north.. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The most important thing here is the EURO SHOWED IT FIRST. Yeah.. take that GFS. Well.. the GFS did have it at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg If I had to draw a map for this storm, it would look like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg His map represents my post earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg very nice map with that tight gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just for comparison, here are the precip totals and snow totals from 1/26/11, including the rain portion before the changeover and the early morning slop: DCA- 1.52", 5.0" BWI- 1.82", 7.6" IAD- 1.31", 7.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWIW -- Chicago has a WSW for 7-10 inches of snow... 1-2" per hour rates possible. If I remember correctly, this would be good news for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg I am lucky to work for a great met like for Eric. He definitely knows what he's doing. His 30 years working the weather in the south central PA shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg He's overdone in SW VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just for comparison, here are the precip totals and snow totals from 1/26/11, including the rain portion before the changeover and the early morning slop: DCA- 1.52", 5.0" BWI- 1.82", 7.6" IAD- 1.31", 7.3" I think in DC at least like .6" was all rain/some sleet before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 He's overdone in SW VA... 2-5 sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 He's overdone in SW VA... up here his call is probably near the perfect scenario if you like snow in the metro are. it's not crazy but probably better to hedge a bit at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think in DC at least like .6" was all rain/some sleet before the changeover. Yup--the rain was heavy and washed away the salt. So maybe 0.7-0.9" was the snow portion? That's about the best case ratio (between 5:1 and 7:1) we are aiming for down by DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am lucky to work for a great met like for Eric. He definitely knows what he's doing. His 30 years working the weather in the south central PA shows. Yeah I have worked under him for the past few years with Campus Weather Service and have learned a lot from him. Unfortunately I ran into financial problems and had to stall out my met degree for a year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg We noted last night that one of the biggest challenges would be figuring out the accums east of 95 across central/eastern VA and the lower MD/VA eastern shore. Even a few hours of mod-heavy snow on the tail end can give a quick 1-3/2-4" over areas we think going in would be *primarily* all rain. I still believe the 4-5+ inch contorus will be rather tight and focused N and W, however the 1-3" zone will spread out closer to the coast because of that changeover and likely good snow rates toward the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Srefs are out. All the info I have is it bumped up qpf for our friends up north. Can someone look at it for us? I'm mobile (15z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yup--the rain was heavy and washed away the salt. So maybe 0.7-0.9" was the snow portion? That's about the best case ratio (between 5:1 and 7:1) we are aiming for down by DCA. DCA was 0.75 during the evening snow portion...don't remember what they got in the morning.....In Mt. pleasant in 210' I had 8:1 ratios for part 2..I don't remember 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Srefs are out. All the info I have is it bumped up qpf for our friends up north. Can someone look at it for us? I'm mobile (15z) H5 goes right over Norfolk and out the mouth of the bay. It looks like some members are just a slight tad fast to the NE (25-50 mi). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Srefs are out. All the info I have is it bumped up qpf for our friends up north. Can someone look at it for us? I'm mobile (15z) Best guess eyeballing DCA: 1.9" IAD: 1.85" BWI: 1.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Srefs are out. All the info I have is it bumped up qpf for our friends up north. Can someone look at it for us? I'm mobile (15z) 1.5-1.75 for Baltimore south and west, 1.25 to 1.5 N&E. 1.75 - 2 by Winchester and at DC extending eastward almost to the bay there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For those of us in PA but south of 40°N. Winter Storm watch is up for Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Best guess eyeballing DCA: 1.9" IAD: 1.85" BWI: 1.7" Where do you get your numbers so fast? Or are you approximating the NCEP images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For those of us in PA but south of 40°N. Winter Storm watch is up for Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster. Makes me feel better having a row of counties to my north into the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where do you get your numbers so fast? Or are you approximating the NCEP images? it is an eyeballing of my subscription maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For those of us in PA but south of 40°N. Winter Storm watch is up for Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster. Those watches extend up into Blair and Huntingdon as well. Good news for you guy down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 E-Wall has pretty good maps that give a total for the 87 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 15z SREF: Precip sig. farther north than 9z or 3z. 1" mean is now up just past Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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