Burnbomb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does anyone feel concerned that this is not all snow? I'm not a met or expert here and I can tell you that by intuition and by how the mets/experts and even amateurs like me are reacting to the latest runs that the rates and dynamics are expected to overcome temp issues for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys are going to roll your eyes but JB gets credit. He said back in Mid February that he expected the early March pattern to yield some kind of "superstorm" for the Mid Atlantic. This is pretty darn close Except until a day ago he was saying it was around march 15th. A blind squirrel finds a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Feeling greedy....bring the darker purples up to FDK please . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You have to be doing back-flips in Winchester...16+ I would have been happy with a solid 6 inch snow. But it appears we are going to get crushed. Now I will be disappointed if we dont get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skipper Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can we please keep the analysis to the mets and pros here in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Except until a day ago he was saying it was around march 15th. A blind squirrel finds a nut. he is excited about that time period too...i think he did say that last event before the pattern change would be a superstorm but he did say that the MA would have a big storm also. He calls for so many storms...i cant keep track of when and what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol Really. Where is this warm air supposed to come from? I'll go out on a limb here and say those with 850's under freezing and good precip have no worries. I'll bet a dime to a dollar that temps end up busting low on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man if the NAM verified it would be a NESIS 4 IMO, heavy snow from you guys to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man if the NAM verified it would be a NESIS 4 IMO, heavy snow from you guys to SNE. a lot of NE turns to rain on the NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Were rooting for all of us in the I-95 corridor. Could be like the JMA coup storm of 2006 for us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 a lot of NE turns to rain on the NAM fwiwafter 12'' falls, ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Starting right now, if I have to pinky more than 2 of your posts, you're getting 5 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Models have been pretty consistent for 4 days straight. There was a glitch run on the NAM a few runs back. Very impressive performance though so far. Although nothing has verified. I truly believe DC will get double digits with this storm. Which is truly historic in March. DC Metro wide 12+ seems like it is very possible. Amazing numbers in March if you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temp setup reminds me a good bit of April '97. DC probably start off as some light rain, and flip fairly quickly to heavy, wet snow. Would agree spot on with Matt's temp guess, 33-34 DCA, 32-33 NW DC. Sounding are pretty good considering how marginal this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temp setup reminds me a good bit of April '97. DC probably start off as some light rain, and flip fairly quickly to heavy, wet snow. Would agree spot on with Matt's temp guess, 33-34 DCA, 32-33 NW DC. Sounding are pretty good considering how marginal this is. How much did DC get during that storm? I lived in Northern Westchester County NY (about 40 miles North of NYC) and we got pummeled, 16-18 inches of paste, major power outages, and thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Except until a day ago he was saying it was around march 15th. A blind squirrel finds a nut. Today he said shades of April 82' just 2-3 weeks earlier for the rest of March. There was also mention of a big high slipping into the northeast next week. I think you can figure out on your own what he thinks this leads too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just took a look at the model soundings for DCA. Outside of a mix of RASN at the start and maybe a mix of snow and sleet for an hour or less at 9z Wed. It is in fact all snow. It may mix at the very tail end with lower rates too. All in all 85-95% of the precip from the NAM is snow. As always.. it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That only through 1:00 PM Wednesday though correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's only through 1 pm wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 That only through 1:00 PM Wednesday though correct? Oh damn, I thought it said 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man if the NAM verified it would be a NESIS 4 IMO, heavy snow from you guys to SNE. This is what I was talking about earlier... this seems to be getting bigger and bigger each run.. not 1993 by any stretch (that was just different).. but if this were early Feb and the temps were in the 20s.. it would be top ten (if it verified). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temp profiles for IAD and DCA, for those that are interested... http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_kiad.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Note the accumulation map from lwx's end time. That might confuse some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 They take the correct approach to snowfall accumulations maps and that is to put a range you are very confident in and increase it as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Look at the time.. Ending 1:00 PM... Wed... that is only half of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just looking at the NAM soundings, it appears there could be a mix in the beginning (9Z Wednesday) with a 0C isothermal layer from about 800mb-900mb. However, once pass 9Z it appears to shift to a pure snow scenario the rest of the way. This analysis is looking at a point over Silver Spring, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temp profiles for IAD and DCA, for those that are interested... http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_kiad.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_kdca.txt They both look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Look at the time.. Ending 1:00 PM... Wed... that is only half of the period. This will be updated again at what time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 any idea how this will affect the middle part of delaware or is this the wrong place to ask From about dover to about 30 miles north of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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