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The March 6 Storm- The (last) Great White Hope, Part II


stormtracker

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Just for comparison, here are the precip totals and snow totals from 1/26/11, including the rain portion before the changeover and the early morning slop:

DCA- 1.52", 5.0"

BWI- 1.82", 7.6"

IAD- 1.31", 7.3"

 

I think in DC at least like .6" was all rain/some sleet before the changeover.

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He's overdone in SW VA...

 

up here his call is probably near the perfect scenario if you like snow in the metro are. it's not crazy but probably better to hedge a bit at this pt.

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I am lucky to work for a great met like for Eric. He definitely knows what he's doing. His 30 years working the weather in the south central PA shows.

Yeah I have worked under him for the past few years with Campus Weather Service and have learned a lot from him. Unfortunately I ran into financial problems and had to stall out my met degree for a year or two.

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Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University.

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg

We noted last night that one of the biggest challenges would be figuring out the accums east of 95 across central/eastern VA and the lower MD/VA eastern shore. Even a few hours of mod-heavy snow on the tail end can give a quick 1-3/2-4" over areas we think going in would be *primarily* all rain. I still believe the 4-5+ inch contorus will be rather tight and focused N and W, however the 1-3" zone will spread out closer to the coast because of that changeover and likely good snow rates toward the end of the storm.
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Srefs are out. All the info I have is it bumped up qpf for our friends up north. Can someone look at it for us? I'm mobile (15z)

 

H5 goes right over Norfolk and out the mouth of the bay. It looks like some members are just a slight tad fast to the NE (25-50 mi).

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Srefs are out. All the info I have is it bumped up qpf for our friends up north. Can someone look at it for us? I'm mobile (15z)

1.5-1.75 for Baltimore south and west, 1.25 to 1.5 N&E. 1.75 - 2 by Winchester and at DC extending eastward almost to the bay there. 

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SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG

239 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST

WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM

TUESDAY TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER

IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING AND

CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AND POTENTIALLY

DANGEROUS. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES

AT TIMES. THE WIND MAY ALSO LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AS TREE LIMBS

AND POWER LINES BECOME WEIGHED DOWN BY THE SNOW.

* WINDS...EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

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I think its a lil early... but CTP just went Winter Storm Warning for Somerset/Bedford/Fulton along the PA/MD border directly north of Washington and Frederick counties in MD. Warnings are for 6 to 12 inches (includes Laurel Mts)

 

PIT did same for Garrett/Preston/Tucker -- 8-14 inches there

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euro ens mean nudged north slightly too.. good clobbering. no se jog of low.

I suspect that SE jog is wrong, one reason is the op euro keeps pushing that further east and lessening the effect, plus I have seen that before many times on the model but not usually does it end up verifying.  Not sure why the euro seems to do that a lot.  Maybe someone with more knowledge of the dynamics of each model could give a hypothesis. 

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There is definitely a consensus for a significant storm now for the mid atlantic region. Have to start paying close detail to the minute details. Ratios snow growth banding boundary layer how much qpf might be overdone etc.

and it's moving north of us too, which is a real shocker in my book

I would have never thought this had a chance to effect people in NE, but it likely will

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I'm still waiting for the SREFs to come out with a 2" qpf blob encircling DCA, Central MD and Baltimore like they did for 12/19/09

anything short of that will be a disappointment :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

Without coming out of the sw juiced up on stj roids it's going to be tough to max like that. At least imo. I think we've seen the top end qpf models already and expecting more is pushing it.

One of the reasons we are already seeing such large qpf's is the speed is slow compared to similar storms and there is are some serious dynamics on the nw side of the comma. No matter which way you slice it, there is going to be a sick sick deform band rotating trough and it won't be racing out either. My avatar is actually a self portrait.

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