wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro is going to have one last tiny jump N at 0z. It's still having issues resolving the problem in which I pointed out late last night with the revolving s/w around the gulf of ME low. The GFS,NAM, RUC, SREF's, all the American guidance has already resolved this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1.2" QPF, I wouldn't even worry about QPF on the Euro, I would use the 4km NAM starting tonight for better QPF. Um...no. 4km NAM is NOT what you want for accurate QPF. Might be want you want for weenie excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Richmond is rain Looks like they get 2-4" of very wet snow at the end, but a LOT of rain first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, there is always the rogue band parked over northern VA and northern MD. The Euro depiction (and especially the GFS and NAM depictions) would support such a band, albeit not in the same exact spot. The NAM fsu banding site should be updated for the NAM now. That should look quite impressive if someone wants to screenshot and post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really nice run of the Euro. It caved. It moved about 50% of the way to the GFS, not a total cave yet but thats 2 runs now that has edged towards the GFS while the GFS has remained a ROCK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Um...no. 4km NAM is NOT what you want for accurate QPF. Might be want you want for weenie excitement. Well for big events I am sure you are right, but for our little piddly events down in RDU it was fairly good. You like SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well for big events I am sure you are right, but for our little piddly events down in RDU it was fairly good. You like SREF's? As some of our subforum modeler met's have attested to, the ARW members of the SREFs have some issues apparently. I thought they were good the last 2-3 winters, but they haven't been great this year. I'd say go with a GFS/Euro blend. The HPC map Ian just posted looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Untitled-13.gif To me that looks like a couple-few hour difference in timing and virtually no difference in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To me that looks like a couple-few hour difference in timing and virtually no difference in track. pretty much. the main diff is the se jog the euro has been doing. la la lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice find Ian. Is it just me or does GFS stacking make more sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RIC proper gets close to an inch after the changeover. Terrible ratios likely though. Comma head moves right over. For reference, the March 1993 superstorm was 9" Flat Rock / 3" Midlothian / 1" RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To me that looks like a couple-few hour difference in timing and virtually no difference in track. Looks a bit odd on the EURO side... still the last vestiges of a transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1362422295.881758.jpg you forgot the one before it , slacker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 if EUro loses the SE jog, I would expect heavier qpf to make it NE than currently depicted ending up similar to GFS THe euro does this sometimes, might be its higher resolution, I dont know, but it sometimes stalls out a system too soon. Did it in New ENgland a month ago. Each run has the low make it a bit further east before that weird loop, my thinking is the SE loop/jump never actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We should probably step away from overanalyzing bl temp stuff a little bit. Gfs threw a thermal curve so it will be interesting to see what the next couple runs do with the trend. Current airmass is very dry and cold for this time of year. We can use actual obs and balloon data along with short range models to make common sense decisions tomorrow. Warmth shouldn't be deep. Wetbulb temps leading into precip is an important part of nowcasting. Every degree means a lot this time. I know many know this already. Figured I'd say something before euro temps get drilled on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Untitled-13.gif looks about the same position to me. Pretty good spot to throw precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Verbatim I looked at the banding site. Judging by fronto best banding would be somewhere dc/balt/n de or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Verbatim I looked at the banding site. Judging by fronto best banding would be somewhere dc/balt/n de or so. I'll take what the NAM was showing at 12Z that sim rad at 51-54 was up there with anything from 09/10 <d@mn temps> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We should probably step away from overanalyzing bl temp stuff a little bit. Gfs threw a thermal curve so it will be interesting to see what the next couple runs do with the trend. Current airmass is very dry and cold for this time of year. We can use actual obs and balloon data along with short range models to make common sense decisions tomorrow. Warmth shouldn't be deep. Wetbulb temps leading into precip is an important part of nowcasting. Every degree means a lot this time. I know many know this already. Figured I'd say something before euro temps get drilled on. it really is...even with the sun shining today, it's still brisk for this time of year. tomorrow looks like the calm before the storm so it may not be quite as chilly out, but nice that we're not preceding this event with mid 50 temps and warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now here's something that hasn't been discussed: stormstart and end timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The last 3 runs of the euro at the same time 9z Th. Yeah ok DT, it didn't move north.. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The most important thing here is the EURO SHOWED IT FIRST. Yeah.. take that GFS. Well.. the GFS did have it at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdmorrow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg If I had to draw a map for this storm, it would look like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg His map represents my post earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is a map by a very good meteorologist Eric Horst up at Millersville University. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg very nice map with that tight gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just for comparison, here are the precip totals and snow totals from 1/26/11, including the rain portion before the changeover and the early morning slop: DCA- 1.52", 5.0" BWI- 1.82", 7.6" IAD- 1.31", 7.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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