stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Fresh thread here. 6z NAM came north and pummeled DC area. Matches GFS. Now I bet the GFS goes south at 6z. Anyway, let's hope my thread starting luck continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Fresh thread here. 6z NAM came north and pummeled DC area. Matches GFS. Now I bet the GFS goes south at 6z. Anyway, let's hope my thread starting luck continues... Now you've done it. Did you remember to sacrifice a KMA to the weather gods before opening this topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Fresh thread here. 6z NAM came north and pummeled DC area. Matches GFS. Now I bet the GFS goes south at 6z. Anyway, let's hope my thread starting luck continues... It may be time to finally change the avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just looked up Atlantic City, NJ.. How's 11 hours of tropical storm force winds with rain mixing with snow at times sound? I imagine Rehobeth is going to be in the wind jet even longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now you've done it. Did you remember to sacrifice a KMA to the weather gods before opening this topic? Deliver blizzard conditions. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hrmmmm GFS. Slightly more disorganized from the NAM @ 36, but generally in the same ballpark from a ULL and Precip Shield standpoint... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hrmmmm GFS. Slightly more disorganized from the NAM @ 36, but generally in the same ballpark from a ULL and Precip Shield standpoint... Track looks to hold...whew...but not as wet SO FAR...that could change in the next frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone scores on the 6z GFS, that shallower attack angle is helping everyone! The only thing extra that this thing could to is come in just a tad stronger.. but this is absolute golden for DC and NOVA. HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Crushed. GFS holds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone scores on the 6z GFS, that shallower attack angle is helping everyone! The only thing extra that this thing could to is come in just a tad stronger.. but this is absolute golden for DC and NOVA. HECS.how about toward the coast? Any hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 how about toward the coast? Any hope? Yeah, you get a good whack on the back end. But I would be more worried for some serious winds. TS force winds for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Everyone scores on the 6z GFS, that shallower attack angle is helping everyone! The only thing extra that this thing could to is come in just a tad stronger.. but this is absolute golden for DC and NOVA. HECS. How is it up in Baltimore,?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 2" for Leesburg, DC and Annapoolis. Jackpot is still Winchester with 2.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How is it up in Baltimore,?. 1.5 - 1.75.. Resolution is horrible on ncep maps and it doesn't get much better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Clownies leave parts of Baltimore with a 1-3" event. But Reisterstown just west makes out nicely. "Snow" (if you buy into these) shifts west. I think it's the typical GFS swearing BLs are too warm...because Skew-Ts say mostly snow for BTown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 how about toward the coast? Any hope? Yeah, you get a good whack on the back end. But I would be more worried for some serious winds. TS force winds for hours. yeah, that def. looks to be the biggest impactor with this storm, at least down here.....Sandy II....interesting times ahead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, you get a good whack on the back end. But I would be more worried for some serious winds. TS force winds for hours. If you are ON the coast I'd start preparing, much beach erosion and coastal flooding likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There's no banter thread in this sub-forum, so I have to ask here...at what level of wind do the powers that be consider closing the US50/301 Bay Bridge? I've been running dedicated to Easton, MD lately and have to cross that bridge twice per day, once loaded and once empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thank you! I went to the site and found info. At sustained, or gusts, of 40-49 mph it is at law enforcements discretion, especially with an empty 53' trailer like the one I drive. Not sure if gusts will get quite that high as I saw 39 mph in land forecasts on the eastern side of the bridge. Wind Restriction I - Sustained wind speeds or wind gusts of 40-49 mphWhen wind restrictions are implemented, house trailers, empty box trailers or any vehicle that, in the opinion of law-enforcement personnel, may not safely cross the bridge will be prohibited from traveling the bridge. Motorists who are denied passage will be assisted with safely turning around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks Wxmeddler and Seminole for the info. I am about to board my plane, hopefully when i land the 12z suite is good and the Euro comes north. I would be surprised if it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thank you! I went to the site and found info. At sustained, or gusts, of 40-49 mph it is at law enforcements discretion, especially with an empty 53' trailer like the one I drive. Not sure if gusts will get quite that high as I saw 39 mph in land forecasts on the eastern side of the bridge. Different bridge! Whoops! Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 6z GFS looks like last run of NAM and last night's GFS. Turns the corner, lots of snow. Bullseye down our way Northern VA over to DCA. Balt does fine on it. Fascinating divergence with Euro. Snows up the cooridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the GFS solutions are right you probably see euro come to it monday 0z. Blend euro/gfs combo right now is my preference. So a little south of gfs and a little north of euro. Significant storm but not a major prediction yet. Have to stay conservative two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 6z GFS looks like last run of NAM and last night's GFS. Turns the corner, lots of snow. Bullseye down our way Northern VA over to DCA. Balt does fine on it. Fascinating divergence with Euro. Snows up the cooridor. The GFS at 60 Is a classic textbook heavy snow look. Man great upper level tracks with definite instability. You don't even have to look at the soundings to confirm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NWS Blacksburg issued Winter Storm Watches filling the gap north and south of them. Anywhere from a 2-6 south to 6-14 north on accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 WSW issued here, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How do we trust a model that gives Boston a foot or more when no other model gives them a flake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I like the changes. NAM back with the GFS which is holding steady. Maybe the American models finally score a coup with a storm this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I did not see these new HPC maps posted - these are the human created ones not the computer ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now I am curious about snow totals. We've been talking about ratios in the as low as 5/7-1, but NWS was just talking about 7/8-1 on the low side and 10-1 on the high side (N/W). With QPFs in the 1.5 range (plus/minus) in the DC area are we really talking 10 inches on the low side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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