March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2

[Chicago Storm]

ECMWF has the heart of the band roughly from near LSE to DVN to IKK to FWA.

 

Still 0.60"+ at ORD. This run is overall wetter in the main band.

[Geos]

Has Chicago had to use the snow plows yet this year?

 

Yeah last week definitely. Not sure about the 7th event.

[Thundersnow12]

Euro a tad wetter here. Near. 70" liquid for ARR/DPA and with sfc temps around 27/28. Could see some decent ratios. Maybe 12:1 or so

[AppsRunner]

Heck of a gradient across NWOH... around .65" at FDY and .17" at TOL. Fun times

[cyclone77]

Euro a tad wetter here. Near. 70" liquid for ARR/DPA and with sfc temps around 27/28. Could see some decent ratios. Maybe 12:1 or so

 

Nice!

[IWXwx]

Just home for lunch and am catching up. For the first time all winter, I can say that I like where I'm sitting, no matter which model you look at. Only concern is sleet mixing in the morning, holding accumulations down some.  Back to work and good luck to all.

[Chicago WX]

Just home for lunch and am catching up. For the first time all winter, I can say that I like where I'm sitting, no matter which model you look at. Only concern is sleet mixing in the morning, holding accumulations down some.  Back to work and good luck to all.

 

You're golden.

[A-L-E-K]

Besides LOT missing the Mt Geos and surrounding peaks, UHI, they did pretty well with the last event.

 

 

agree

[Chicago WX]

Latest LOT snowfall map.

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Latest LOT snowfall map.

 

3:4 LOT snow cancel.png

 

And JUMMMMMMPPPPPP...........

[Chicago WX]

And JUMMMMMMPPPPPP...........

 

TimChgo was right!!!

[wisconsinwx]

Latest LOT snowfall map.

 

3:4 LOT snow cancel.png

 

Must have the wrong office, that's MKX and GRB's latest map.

[Chicago Storm]

12z ECMWF QPF text list...

 

LSE:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -3.0    -4.7    1018      68      97    0.04     548     534    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.3    -4.3    1017      75     100    0.01     549     536    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -3.4    -6.2    1019      82     100    0.03     548     533    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -4.7    -7.6    1017      89      99    0.18     545     531    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -4.0    -9.5    1019      82      97    0.27     541     527    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -4.2   -11.0    1022      84      94    0.11     544     526

MSN:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -3.0    -2.8    1018      73      86    0.01     550     536    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -4.1    -4.1    1019      78      99    0.00     550     535    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.7    -5.2    1016      80     100    0.01     547     535    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.7    -7.0    1016      85      98    0.19     544     531    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.5    -9.8    1018      85      98    0.20     543     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -5.6    -9.3    1022      85      90    0.04     547     530

MKE:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.9    -5.8    1015      78      99    0.04     546     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -8.7    1016      83     100    0.10     543     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -7.0    1019      84      75    0.06     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -4.7    -6.8    1023      87      47    0.01     550     532    
WED 18Z 06-MAR  -0.1    -7.7    1026      75      55    0.01     553     532

RAC:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.6    -5.0    1015      79      99    0.06     546     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.8    -8.8    1015      83      99    0.15     543     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -7.3    1018      84      78    0.07     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.7    -6.9    1023      87      45    0.01     550     532    
WED 18Z 06-MAR  -0.1    -7.4    1025      77      52    0.01     553     533

CID:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -1.1    -0.5    1014      82      82    0.02     551     540    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -1.1    -2.5    1014      79      78    0.02     551     540    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.5    -2.8    1014      82     100    0.03     550     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.5    -4.9    1014      92     100    0.15     545     534    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.8    -8.4    1015      92      97    0.26     539     527    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.1   -10.1    1020      87      93    0.10     542     526

DVN:

MON 18Z 04-MAR   0.1    -1.0    1016      71      87    0.06     551     539    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -0.6    -2.2    1014      74      77    0.00     552     541    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.0    -1.7    1014      76      92    0.01     551     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.2    -2.6    1013      88      99    0.10     547     537    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.2    -7.0    1013      92      99    0.30     541     531    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.0   -10.0    1017      89      97    0.25     540     527    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.6    -9.0    1023      83      88    0.04     548     530

STL:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   6.0     1.7    1009      89      52    0.04     555     547    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   4.8     1.4    1010      97      93    0.04     551     543    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.8    -5.4    1013      85      64    0.17     543     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.1    -9.0    1016      53      87    0.00     535     522    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.4   -10.7    1021      73      80    0.01     547     530

PIA:

MON 18Z 04-MAR   2.8     0.3    1015      64      85    0.06     553     541    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR   2.1    -1.6    1013      68      69    0.01     553     543    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   1.6    -0.4    1013      67      80    0.00     552     542    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.3    -0.4    1011      81      97    0.02     549     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.5    -5.1    1011      94     100    0.19     543     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.9    -9.2    1014      92     100    0.28     538     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.6    -9.2    1020      84      79    0.10     546     530

RFD:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -1.2    -3.4    1019      70      99    0.01     550     536    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.8    -1.3    1017      74      94    0.01     551     538    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -2.1    -2.7    1017      76      97    0.00     551     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -3.5    1014      78     100    0.01     548     537    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -4.7    1013      89     100    0.19     544     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.1    -9.5    1016      87      99    0.34     541     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.7    -8.1    1021      85      88    0.10     547     531

DKB:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.3    -0.6    1016      72      95    0.01     552     539    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -0.9    -2.2    1016      73      97    0.00     551     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.9    -2.7    1014      74     100    0.01     549     538    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.2    -3.9    1012      89     100    0.15     544     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -9.1    1015      89     100    0.38     541     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.4    -7.7    1019      86      93    0.13     546     531

DPA:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.5    -0.6    1017      70      89    0.01     552     538    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -0.3    -2.2    1017      70      97    0.00     551     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.6    -2.7    1014      70      99    0.01     549     538    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.1    -3.4    1012      86     100    0.12     545     535    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -9.0    1014      89     100    0.39     541     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.3    -7.9    1018      87      95    0.15     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -5.3    -5.6    1023      85      61    0.01     551     533

UGN:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -3.9    1014      83     100    0.10     545     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -9.1    1014      85      99    0.26     542     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -7.7    1018      85      88    0.10     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.8    -6.5    1022      86      43    0.01     550     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.1    -7.1    1025      75      55    0.01     553     533

ORD:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.1    -3.3    1013      85     100    0.10     545     535    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -9.2    1013      88     100    0.38     541     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -8.1    1017      87      95    0.16     545     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.7    -5.9    1022      85      47    0.01     550     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.4    -6.5    1025      75      58    0.01     554     534

MDW:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -0.4    -2.8    1012      81     100    0.09     546     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.2    -8.7    1013      89     100    0.41     541     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -7.7    1016      86      93    0.19     545     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.6    -6.3    1021      85      50    0.01     550     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.1    -6.1    1025      79      54    0.01     554     534

DEC:

MON 18Z 04-MAR   5.3     1.2    1016      55      85    0.02     554     542    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR   4.5    -0.7    1013      60      56    0.02     555     544    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   3.8     0.8    1012      60      78    0.01     554     544    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   2.6     0.7    1010      81      83    0.04     551     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.6    -3.0    1009      97     100    0.13     545     537    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.4    -8.3    1012      90     100    0.23     537     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -9.1    1017      87      85    0.11     544     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -4.6    -6.7    1024      81      60    0.01     552     533

VPZ:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.4    -1.5    1014      50      98    0.01     550     539    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.1    -1.6    1011      70     100    0.06     547     538    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -7.2    1011      91      98    0.40     541     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.2    -6.8    1015      87      95    0.29     544     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -6.0    1020      86      43    0.01     550     534

LAF:

TUE 00Z 05-MAR   2.8     0.6    1016      52      88    0.02     554     541    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   2.6    -0.2    1015      52      88    0.00     553     541    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.8    -0.2    1012      64      97    0.01     551     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.5    -0.3    1009      81     100    0.08     547     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.2    -5.8    1008      93     100    0.28     540     534    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -7.9    1012      91      96    0.20     542     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -5.8    1019      87      84    0.03     549     534    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.2    -5.1    1024      77      38    0.01     554     536    
THU 00Z 07-MAR  -0.5    -5.7    1026      87      33    0.01     557     536 

IND:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.9     0.8    1012      61      96    0.03     552     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.7     0.9    1008      92      91    0.17     549     542    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.0    -4.0    1005      99      99    0.18     540     536    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -7.3    1010      91      97    0.26     539     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.4    -6.1    1017      87      88    0.11     547     534 

OKK:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   1.5    -0.4    1017      58      98    0.01     553     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.7    -0.5    1014      66      93    0.01     551     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.2     0.0    1010      73      99    0.05     548     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.1    -4.7    1007      89     100    0.23     542     536    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.0    -7.0    1010      91      97    0.30     541     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.9    -5.1    1018      88      88    0.09     548     534

FWA:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.7    -1.3    1013      62     100    0.03     549     539    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -3.5    1009      79     100    0.15     543     536    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -5.5    1010      88      98    0.43     541     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -4.4    1016      83      84    0.11     547     534

GRR:

WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.6    -5.5    1016      86      41    0.01     545     533

BTL:

WED 00Z 06-MAR   0.0    -6.2    1012      66     100    0.02     544     535    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.9    -5.1    1014      82      76    0.07     544     533

TOL:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -3.3    1011      69     100    0.01     545     537    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.6    -4.2    1010      78      98    0.11     543     535    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.8    -5.3    1014      78      69    0.05     546     534

DAY:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   0.8    -0.4    1019      58      97    0.01     554     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.5    -0.2    1016      55      88    0.00     553     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   3.4     0.3    1011      61      97    0.03     551     542    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.6    -0.5    1004      92      99    0.14     545     541    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -0.8    -3.7    1003      94     100    0.47     538     535    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -5.1    1010      90      93    0.23     543     536    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.1    -5.6    1019      87      61    0.02     551     536

HAO:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.5     1.4    1010      82      96    0.12     551     543    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.8     0.4    1003      95     100    0.19     544     541    
WED 06Z 06-MAR   0.2    -4.6    1003      95     100    0.45     537     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -5.7    1010      87      94    0.17     543     535    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.5    -5.5    1019      80      67    0.02     552     537

CMH:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   4.4    -0.5    1013      51      98    0.01     552     541    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.8    -0.3    1005      68      99    0.03     547     542    
WED 06Z 06-MAR   0.9    -2.1    1001      96     100    0.45     539     539    
WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.0    -4.7    1007      94      64    0.31     541     536    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   3.1    -6.0    1016      76      69    0.02     550     537    
THU 00Z 07-MAR   1.2    -5.9    1021      87      75    0.01     552     535

CLE:

WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.1    -2.6    1007      76      99    0.03     544     538    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -0.2    -5.4    1012      89      97    0.15     544     535    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.1    -4.7    1018      76      74    0.03     549     535 

[cyclone77]

Euro still a little dry compared to some of the other amped up models.  Certainly more realistic than the NMM lol.  Drops about 6-7" here.  Blending the GFS/Euro matches my 6-8" call quite nicely. 

[Chicago WX]

Euro is considerably warmer for LAF. But a bit more QPF. 2-4" seems like a good call, all depending on how quickly it changes over. Jackpot in Indiana well to the north.

[B-Rent]

• TONIGHT A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain between 1am and 4am, then a  chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible
• TUESDAY Rain, freezing rain, and ***** before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 34. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and ***** accumulation of around an inch possible.
• TUESDAY NIGHT Snow. Low around 27. North wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

 

 

   

[mimillman]

Euro looks sweet. 4-7" in Chicago a lock.

[LizardMafia]

Euro is considerably warmer for LAF. But a bit more QPF. 2-4" seems like a good call, all depending on how quickly it changes over. Jackpot in Indiana well to the north.

You are going to do fine in LAF.  Down here will be the mixed bag from hell..

[Hoosier]

Euro is considerably warmer for LAF. But a bit more QPF. 2-4" seems like a good call, all depending on how quickly it changes over. Jackpot in Indiana well to the north.

The key timeframe to me is that 18z-00z. It will need to snow heavily enough to stick.

[Chicago WX]

You are going to do fine in LAF.  Down here will be the mixed bag from hell..

 

Going to be close. I'd rather be 60 miles or more north.

The key timeframe to me is that 18z-00z. It will need to snow heavily enough to stick.

 

Yep. Thread the needle, sort of speak.

[Ajdos]

Here is your latest Microwave forecast...I mean microcast...

 

 

[B-Rent]

You are going to do fine in LAF.  Down here will be the mixed bag from hell..

I'd feel more comfortable living 15 miles north on SR 28, opposed to being down here on 32.

[cyclone77]

Skilling's RPM showed 13" over most of Chicagoland. 

[A-L-E-K]

Skilling's RPM showed 13" over most of Chicagoland. 

 

 

still waiting for the 10" plus it owes me from the last storm

[Hoosier]

Here is your latest Microwave forecast...I mean microcast...

Mt Geos magic may have run out for the time being.

[afterimage]

I'd feel more comfortable living 15 miles north on SR 28, opposed to being down here on 32.

 

Agreed.....i live just north of sr 28 by a mile or 2 

[LizardMafia]

I'd feel more comfortable living 15 miles north on SR 28, opposed to being down here on 32.

Yeah, I don't think it's going to be pretty around here..A big bag of slop..

[Hoosier]

Going to be close. I'd rather be 60 miles or more north.

Yep. Thread the needle, sort of speak.

Precip rates look pretty good for a time so I think it should stick...but if we're sitting on like 1-2" at 7 PM then it's probably a sign that we come in on the lower end.

[Chicago WX]

DBQ: 8.0"
FWA: 6.5"

IKK: 6.3"

IND: 2.5"

LAF: 2.8"
LSE: 8.6"
MDW: 7.5"

MIE: 4.5"
MKE: 2.2"
MLI: 6.5"
MSN: 5.0"

OKK: 4.0"
ORD: 6.9"
RFD: 6.7"
SBN: 7.5"

UGN: 5.5"

[wisconsinwx]

DBQ: 8.0"

FWA: 6.5"

IKK: 6.3"

IND: 2.5"

LAF: 2.8"

LSE: 8.6"

MDW: 7.5"

MIE: 4.5"

MKE: 2.2"

MLI: 6.5"

MSN: 5.0"

OKK: 4.0"

ORD: 6.9"

RFD: 6.7"

SBN: 7.5"

UGN: 5.5"

 

Good calls, you and Bowme will be geniuses with this storm, though I think MLI is a bit low, they have probably the best boom potential with this.  10-12" not out of the realm of possibility, though with the first 0.05-0.10"QPF barely accumulating as Cyclone mentioned, perhaps it will be right on.  Also, LAF will have at least 3.5" out of this storm, mark my words.