A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 best point of the year....strange to go bullish as the models are progressively backing off Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Breezy, with a east wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Blustery, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 going to be the heartbreaker of the winter for sure...lol @ foot or more Sure is a good read. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Getting really close to the 6" northern line. Hoping the models stay steady now! My grid: Tonight Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 29. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Breezy, with a east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. A couple miles way it's 5-9" for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Foot may be a little optimistic but it's not that far fetched especially if the heavier synoptic related band targets the same areas where lake enhancement occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Point here is 7-9", which seems reasonable. If we can get a little convective element going we have a shot at breaking 10", but I wouldn't bet on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Been snowing for about 4hrs now. Accumulated a tenth earlier, but that has all melted off. Rates are so light it's not accumulating. Still pretty impressed at the staying power this WAA has had. Nice to see mood flakes flying around out there the day before the real deal. Going to be tough to get snow to stick to concrete/roofs during the daylight hours; although if its coming down hard enough i'm sure it will...whatever the case, it isn't going to stick around long... I still like that area south of Rochester, MN down into Iowa... Most model runs have kept that area in the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Foot may be a little optimistic but it's not that far fetched especially if the heavier synoptic related band targets the same areas where lake enhancement occurs. IDK modeling is in the 6-7 inch range and LE parameters are modest at best. We're hanging on to a decent hit but that sounds kind of weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z GEFS mean 72 hour QPF, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Stick a fork in it. I have seen this too many times over the years. We look good for a good hit, only to have major changes in the 24hours prior to the event... We miss.... I will lay money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IDK modeling is in the 6-7 inch range and LE parameters are modest at best. We're hanging on to a decent hit but that sounds kind of weenie. If it's anything, the 12z NMM has Chicago in the .75-1.00 precip, flirting with the 1-1.25 precip line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Stick a fork in it. I have seen this too many times over the years. We look good for a good hit, only to have major changes in the 24hours prior to the event... We miss.... I will lay money on it. Are you kidding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Going to be tough to get snow to stick to concrete/roofs during the daylight hours; although if its coming down hard enough i'm sure it will...whatever the case, it isn't going to stick around long... I still like that area south of Rochester, MN down into Iowa... Most model runs have kept that area in the big snows. Yeah that area really looks primed. As far as snow sticking I think the rates will be high enough we won't have that issue. Especially since we have a good 3" base. Roadways may have some issues initially, but if it's anything like last Tue the rates trumped the marginal temps/March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If it's anything, the 12z NMM has Chicago in the .75-1.00 precip, flirting with the 1-1.25 precip line. drier than 6z nad the NMM is notoriously wet..like in a big way. 4-7 area wide favoring far south/west looks prudent based on current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Stick a fork in it. I have seen this too many times over the years. We look good for a good hit, only to have major changes in the 24hours prior to the event... We miss.... I will lay money on it. Meltdown watch cancel. We have a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Worst case scenario Chicago doesn't end up in the heaviest band, but they should easily get 5" or more IMO. In fact I still think they're good for 7-10". The southern trend only really applies to the whacky NAM, and the GFS to some extent. They're basically converging towards the Euro, which has been pretty good for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Worst case scenario Chicago doesn't end up in the heaviest band, but they should easily get 5" or more IMO. In fact I still think they're good for 7-10". The southern trend only really applies to the whacky NAM, and the GFS to some extent. They're basically converging towards the Euro, which has been pretty good for Chicago. Chicago could easily see a 3-4" spread across the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Meltdown watch cancel. We have a warning. set some terms, makes some money. Over under 5" at Joliet. $100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just love how easily some people can be tempted to the ledge. Get a grip, people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 set some terms, makes some money. Over under 5" at Joliet. $100? If I was a betting man, relatively easy over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IDK modeling is in the 6-7 inch range and LE parameters are modest at best. We're hanging on to a decent hit but that sounds kind of weenie. I agree it's not the greatest setup for enhancement but it should add on some. As long as the southward bleeding stops then I'd say it's fairly likely that somebody in NE IL cracks double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Bumping up my initial 3-5 inch call from Warsaw to fort Wayne to 4-6. Would be my biggest snow since November 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I was a betting man, relatively easy over. yeah he's pretty far south...lots of wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Besides LOT missing the Mt Geos and surrounding peaks, UHI, they did pretty well with the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Chicago sees 7" (ORD) minimum from this, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Stick a fork in it. I have seen this too many times over the years. We look good for a good hit, only to have major changes in the 24hours prior to the event... We miss.... I will lay money on it. You don't want to do that. You are still in the game on most models despite the shifts. Probably will be your best or at worst second best storm of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MKX circling the wagons. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1157 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING AREA OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...BEING DRIVEN BY WEAK850MB FRONTOGENESIS. NO REPORTS OF EVEN FLURRIES HAVE BEENRECEIVED ACROSS THE AREA...AS LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE AIR COLUMNIS VERY DRY PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DRY EASTERLY FLOW ALSOHELPING TO ERODE THIS REFLECTIVITY BAND. THUS...HAVE CUT BACK POPSACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND MAY HAVE TO CUT BACKEVEN MORE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.MODELS ARE TRENDING SOUTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WITHTHE STORM FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500MB LOW TRACK...AS WELLAS THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ARE SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTHTHAN IN PAST MODEL RUNS...PUSHING A FAIR AMOUNT IF NOT MOST OFTHE QPF OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE AREASTILL SEES A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION AND QPF...BUT THEHIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TOSOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND SUBSEQUENTHEADLINES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECASTPACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Has Chicago had to use the snow plows yet this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 set some terms, makes some money. Over under 5" at Joliet. $100? over and make it a g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 My point forecast pretty much sucks... Tuesday A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Light east northeast wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Tuesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 26. North northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Wednesday A slight chance of snow showers before 7am, then a chance for flurries. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Nice. Atleast when we get a south wind it will be a chilly wind from all the snowpack south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Are you kidding? It's been one of those mornings.... okay... so I retract my last statement. Gotta remember to not let my bad mood seep out to the internet......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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