A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol, you aren't getting missed. NE IL in a prime spot. Still looks good and there is a little wiggle room especially Cook but just about everyone in the prediction thread had MKE or Geos as a jackpot zones...the northern edge looks to be sharp and we've certainly lost some of our margin for error. Hopefully the GFS/Euro hold and this is just the NAM coming into better focus. If the Ukie pulls the win.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With respect to the 9z SREF snow probabilities, pretty big shift south versus its runs yesterday. It now has 50% or slightly greater of 4"+ for here...while yesterday's runs were all rain. Lower chance 8"+ probabilities are back for NE IL, and now extend through northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Interesting that there are quite a few tracks out there, but they dont seem to be effecting th snow in this area very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have to give the euro a little credit. It was counted out but these southern shifts of the gfs has made it's southern track a bit more believable... At least hoping here in central ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still looks good and there is a little wiggle room especially Cook but just about everyone in the prediction thread had MKE or Geos as a jackpot zones...the northern edge looks to be sharp and we've certainly lost some of our margin for error. Hopefully the GFS/Euro hold and this is just the NAM coming into better focus. If the Ukie pulls the win.... Seems the NAM is regressing to the global mean. I wouldn't worry for YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seems the NAM is regressing to the global mean. I wouldn't worry for YBY. 5-7 still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Took a look at the Weather Channel this morning.. They were showing the lows phasing at or near the coast,and then running up the Eastern Seaboard. It looked like they took a huge chunk out of any snow potential for this region, instead, moving it all east to OH, VA, PA... or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I've had enough sleet to last me a lifetime.. Me too!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MKX are such weenies, why do I even bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MKX are such weenies, why do I even bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 4km NAM looks like it's gonna really dump here most of tomorrow. Looks great for all of northern IL down into IN, including LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MKX are such weenies, why do I even bother? they probably could have held it as a watch until today's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 4km NAM looks like it's gonna really dump here most of tomorrow. Looks great for all of northern IL down into IN, including LAF. yeah late morning until early evening look prime here...another high commuter impact event. Poor timing temps wise but they look much better this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Absolute brutal gradient over SE WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 they probably could have held it as a watch until today's 12z runs. Yeah, I thought it was a 90% chance they would do that (wait til the 12z runs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings still very warm for here. Surface temps topping out into the mid 30's with rain, but it looks like a couple of inches post changeover. Guess I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 get your early GFS/Euro guesses in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 FWA, 0.88" through 48 hours. Should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 9z SREF mean for ORD stayed more or less the same as the previous run but spread is greater with more clunkers and winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 get your early GFS/Euro guesses in now. Euro holds, GFS holds in tandem with its 6z run...or something close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings still very warm for here. Surface temps topping out into the mid 30's with rain, but it looks like a couple of inches post changeover. Guess I'll take it. Looks like the thermal ridge holds through about 18z tomorrow, and then quickly crashes southeast. Looks like you should have a quick changeover to all snow between 1-3pm your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 9z SREF mean for ORD stayed more or less the same as the previous run but spread is greater with more clunkers and winners. 6" is your worst clunker. You'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 get your early GFS/Euro guesses in now. Think they'll both stay pretty consistent with maybe a few minor tweaks. Think the Euro will be a bit wetter than the relatively dry 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 MKX are such weenies, why do I even bother? at least they have a set to go along with their weenie, unlike someone. have you even made a call yet for this one? After your debacle last storm its probably better off you don't anyways. LAF looking good still wish I would of went a little higher down there, o well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LAF on the 9z SREF plumes mean: 6.2" high: 11.6" low: 1.2" 10 runs higher than the mean, 10 runs lower than the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 get your early GFS/Euro guesses in now. GFS: definitely south of 0z, probably about the same or a tick north/east of 6z. Euro: a tick south with the QPF of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 at least they have a set to go along with their weenie, unlike someone. have you even made a call yet for this one? After your debacle last storm its probably better off you don't anyways. LAF looking good still wish I would of went a little higher down there, o well. Look at the prediction thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 8-9" for Chicagoland per 4km NAM. About the same here. Strong northeast winds bringing in drier air from the high pressure really fighting that northeast edge in parts of WI/MI. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/62/4km2.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The folks here in IL (myself included) tend to give LOT so much grief about the headlines they put out. And this time, there's actually a warning in place, but I'm getting paranoid that this little wonderful scenario that's been painted for 2 days is going to fade away, lol. Hopefully the southern shift does not rise again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, you win some and you lose some. That's the way I look at it. There's still time for this to change and I hope it does for the northern end a bit. Such drastic shifts north then south put a red flag up IMO. Waiting to see what this thing does when it meets up with the southern end. Too much in the air ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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