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March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2


Harry

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Welp, got to go with the professionals. Updated warning below...which is a solid bump. Very best of luck to the IND NWS. :D

 

 

CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HANCOCK-HENRY-RUSH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...ANDERSON...MUNCIE1120 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THISAFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY DUE TO SNOW. TRAVEL MAY  BECOME DIFFICULT.* ACCUMULATIONS: FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING: RAIN....WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE THIS  AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE  TONIGHT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS  EVENING.

Upgraded from Advisory to a Warning now.. I say let's ride it to the end..  :sled:

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solid update from IND

ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A RELATIVE LULL WITH LIGHT PRECIP AT THE MOMENT THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH WET SNOWFLAKES AND EVEN A FEW ICE PELLETS IMPACTING FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 16Z...WITH PRECIP EXPANDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 30S LATE THIS MORNING.

LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE UPDATE WITH SOME CHANGES IN ORDER TO THE HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL DATA.

SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOWING SLOW MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND WILL SEE PRECIP COVERAGE EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING ALOFT INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MEANWHILE...INTENSE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA WILL APPROACH AND ROTATE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING AND 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS SHOW COLDER AIR THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPANDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.

ONCE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT A NUMBER OF PARAMETERS TO COME INTO PLAY TO PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND N/E OF THE INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...AXIS OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT... HIGH DIV Q VALUES AND THE PASSAGE OF A DECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW. THESE FEATURES MAY ALSO COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOW RATIOS UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER FORCING WHICH WOULD SERVE TO ACCENTUATE SNOWFALL RATES. BY 06Z AS THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WEST INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE TROWAL TO MAINTAIN STRONG LIFT AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVEN AS BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE TROWAL WILL THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THESE FEATURES ABOVE WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT SUPPORT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 74 OF 4 TO 5 INCHES TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING...WITH THE NAM AND RAP SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF INDY METRO. REGARDLESS CONSIDERING ABOVE THOUGHTS...FEEL COMFORTABLE IN EXPANDING THE WARNING WEST A ROW OF COUNTIES TO INCLUDE MARION COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE INDY METRO. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY TO COME THIS EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH ABOUT 06-08Z WITH GRADUALLY LIGHTENING RATES THEREAFTER AS THE TROWAL ROTATES SOUTHEAST. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...HAVE ADJUSTED ALL HEADLINES TO BEGIN AT 20Z.

WILL REVISIT DECISIONS FURTHER FOR MAIN FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.

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Holding steady at 31 here.

 

Moderate snow falling right now.  Already shaved 1" off of the driveway. Looks like that 1" is back already.  Snow is heavy and wet.  Still no real wind to speak of, coming from the E @ 5-10. 

 

Moderate snow has been steady now for the past 2 hours at least, flake size is pretty decent.  

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Didn't see this posted anywhere, but this is from an hour ago...

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1013 AM CST TUE MAR 05 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..1009 AM     SNOW             2 N STREATOR            41.15N 88.83W03/05/2013  M4.0 INCH        LA SALLE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER            STORM TOTAL SINCE 7 AM
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MIE is gonna get smoked. :)

 

I hope you're right, and based on those 12z runs, I think you are, but I've been around here too long to believe anything until it is on the ground.  Getting a 50/50 rain/sleet mix attm.  Temps are running about a degree cooler than the NAM and GFS had for us at noon.

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I hope you're right, and based on those 12z runs, I think you are, but I've been around here too long to believe anything until it is on the ground.  Getting a 50/50 rain/sleet mix attm.  Temps are running about a degree cooler than the NAM and GFS had for us at noon.

 

It's somewhat of tough call still, I think, but IND has a good handle on things. Best of luck to you, and all the others in central Indiana.

 

My torch thermometer is down a degree to 35º. A few flakes mixed in here at the moment.

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