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March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2


Harry

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Where/when is the pivot supposed to happen?

 

 

I think western LOT looks prime for the best pivot point.

700/850 frontogenisis continues to increase over N. IL and we should see a trowal like feature swing through later this afternoon/early evening.

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remind me again why people freaked out last night with the 00z NAM? 

 

LOT's best met found the decreasing QPF numbers troubling as well. 

 

BASED ON UNANIMOUS CONSENSUS FOR LOWER QPF

AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS FROM ALL THE MODELS...INCLUDING A SREF

PLUMES FOR ORD SHOWING A 6" DECREASE IN MEAN SNOWFALL FROM THE 15Z

TO THE 03Z RUN...HAVE LOWERED SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGE TO 4 TO 8

INCHES...

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LOT's best met found the decreasing QPF numbers troubling as well. 

 

BASED ON UNANIMOUS CONSENSUS FOR LOWER QPF

AND RESULTANT SNOW AMOUNTS FROM ALL THE MODELS...INCLUDING A SREF

PLUMES FOR ORD SHOWING A 6" DECREASE IN MEAN SNOWFALL FROM THE 15Z

TO THE 03Z RUN...HAVE LOWERED SNOWFALL FORECAST RANGE TO 4 TO 8

INCHES...

 

Sorry, my comment was in response to the 'Wagons North' comments. The NAM last night showed wagons south and everyone freaked. The lower QPF numbers were across the board on all models it seemed so that was expected. 

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000NWUS53 KMKX 051552LSRMKXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI952 AM CST TUE MAR 05 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..0951 AM     SNOW             3 NW RACINE             42.76N 87.83W03/05/2013  M1.0 INCH        RACINE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER            SNOW TOTAL SINCE 830 AM
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