Allsnow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol 6z GFS back to dropping 10" here. Both nam and gfs went back to a wetter outcome then the 00z runs. Good to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Either the RAP is going to be the only model to verify here or it's just a slap in the face... well north of the rest of the guidance. Oh well, I'll take 1-3" though I'm surprised that CLE issued headlines for this yesterday afternoon ... especially for Toledo. I was even more surprised to see that they still didn't take them down this morning. Isn't an advisory 4"+ ? It would take such a huge shift north for that to even come to fruition there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Driveway is white here, nice dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nada in Gurnee..tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 snow melting on contact...going to need a prolonged period of better rates before we can start accumulating with these warm surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Snowing at a decent rate, but flake size very small. Nowhere near the flake size of last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 We have a dusting, flake size is small so there must be dry air aloft, but that's common on the front edge of any system. 20+ dBZ reflectivity approaching from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 sounds like pingers downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3 inches here, but the back edge is moving in fast... faster than yesterday's model runs suggested. With the mod to heavy band moving in now we should hit 4 inches for sure, but accumulation should slow quite a bit after that. I think 5 would be our limit. With no wind the snow is very uniform, but flakes are pretty small. (update) Flakes in this last good band are larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Precip has a convective look in northern IL and far southern WI, makes sense with mid-level lapse rates a little over 6 *C/km. That might explain why there's dry air eating up the snowflakes a bit, convective downdrafts are like little dry air generators. Could see decent flake sizes under the updrafts though, flakes getting bigger and more plentiful with this band moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Pouring down snow here. Yeah flake size is small, but it's pouring. Already a good 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sitting at 35 downtown with a wintery mix of pingers/snizzle/light snow. Surfaces are warm, wet and well treated. Upstream reports about poor flake size are concerning given surface warmth...we'll need at least a period of mod/heavy snow or this one is dead in the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DVN with 1/4 S+ now. RAP/HRRR bring the dry slot up to about the QC early this afternoon before it stalls and pivots. Looks like we should stay in the decent snow rates here, although maybe a little less than areas just northeast. RAP drops nearly 0.80" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DVN with 1/4 S+ now. RAP/HRRR bring the dry slot up to about the QC early this afternoon before it stalls and pivots. Looks like we should stay in the decent snow rates here, although maybe a little less than areas just northeast. RAP drops nearly 0.80" here. I think you're jackpot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sitting at 35 downtown with a wintery mix of pingers/snizzle/light snow. Surfaces are warm, wet and well treated. Upstream reports about poor flake size are concerning given surface warmth...we'll need at least a period of mod/heavy snow or this one is dead in the water. All the official Chicago weather obs are at or below 32 F, so the 35 F is from a marine air mass. It'll easily be pushed out by mesoscale cold pools associated with the snow, especially since it's convective snow. Only the far south side and Indiana have legitimate mixing issues based on thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm surprised that CLE issued headlines for this yesterday afternoon ... especially for Toledo. I was even more surprised to see that they still didn't take them down this morning. Isn't an advisory 4"+ ? It would take such a huge shift north for that to even come to fruition there. I'm not exactly sure... I suppose the very southern part of Lucas county has a shot at 2-4" (1-3, iso 4 is my call for Route 6) but I really don't understand for sure. Still 3-5" in my grid in BG too... even the extremely amped/NE RAP doesn't show TOL getting much action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 All the official Chicago weather obs are at or below 32 F, so the 35 F is from a marine air mass. It'll easily be pushed out by mesoscale cold pools associated with the snow, especially since it's convective snow. Only the far south side and Indiana have legitimate mixing issues based on thicknesses. MDW was 33 but just knocked back a degree, we'll see if we drop here over the next hour. FWIW LOT does have sleet in the point for downtown....so they're on top of the situation as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ground covered here. Not having the temp issue that alek is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Either the RAP is going to be the only model to verify here or it's just a slap in the face... well north of the rest of the guidance. Oh well, I'll take 1-3" though just posted in the ohio thread..... RAP brings a 995 to Athens OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ground covered here. Not having the temp issue that alek is you're a good bit southwest away from the lake and got into the action first...we'll see if we start to cool now that returns have been overhead for a while. Still seeing some pingers on the window but drizzle no longer in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sitting at 32 right now, locally. Snow is coming down. It's light for now, but the returns are starting to fill in on the radar. Flake size is small, but, it is accumulating. The driveway went from clean and dry to dusted in a very short period of time, so, we'll see how things change when the rest of the snow gets organized. Morning TV weather seems to think a general 4" to 8" for the area. Our school district web page had, in big red letters: "District 101 Schools are OPEN"... Dashing the hopes of my children who were hoping for a snow day.... A snow day? For this? Even if we get 8"? Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 IMO it looks like the RAP has a decent handle on the situation...certainly not a mega fail like so often this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Nice band of deeper returns moving through Ottawa now, heading for Aurora and the Fox Valley. Light snow falling here now. Streets have a coating on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 IMO it looks like the RAP has a decent handle on the situation...certainly not a mega fail like so often this winter. Yup. If I were to guess, things lookin up for MKE on radar means things are looking up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 SN- here by the way. No pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yup. If I were to guess, things lookin up for MKE on radar means things are looking up for us. I hope we can get into some of those convective looking returns down around Joliet to get a head start so we don't have waste an hour or to of peak storm with surface melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I hope we can get into some of those convective looking returns down around Joliet to get a head start so we don't have waste an hour or to of peak storm with surface melting. I don't think we will. Radar orientation looks more south to north. It may clip is, but nothing exciting. I am liking the fact though that this is definitely north of modeling. MKE about to get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This thing is expected to pivot southeastward, correct? Seems much more north than I expected at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This thing is expected to pivot southeastward, correct? Seems much more north than I expected at this point. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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