March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2

[Harry]

I can't help but have this feeling that the 0z dryness is a sign of things to come.

 

[Hoosier]

It's a tough call. Have to hope changeover isn't delayed. Something like the NAM scares me though. Temps approaching 40º.

15 03/05 15Z   35     32      97      12    0.01  0.00    540    549   -0.2 -22.4 1011 100 -RA   032OVC233    0.0   15.1
18 03/05 18Z   39     35      95      11    0.03  0.00    540    547    0.0 -22.7 1009 100 -RA   017OVC202    0.0   11.4
21 03/05 21Z   36     34      44       7    0.10  0.00    538    544   -2.4 -22.6 1007 100 RA    009OVC276    0.1    5.2
24 03/06 00Z   30     30      39      11    0.16  0.00    535    541   -3.9 -23.4 1007 100 -SN   007OVC279    1.6    0.6
27 03/06 03Z   28     27       7      14    0.13  0.00    532    540   -5.8 -23.7 1010 100 -SN   008OVC279    1.3    0.7
30 03/06 06Z   29     27     358      18    0.09  0.00    532    542   -6.4 -23.1 1012 100 -SN   009OVC279    0.9    1.5

I doubt it gets that warm with the clouds/precip/easterly flow, but even if it does, I think the fairly quick drop and lack of blowtorch weather as of late would help us not lose much to melting.

[Chicago WX]

Total QPF from the weeniest of all the models...0z NMM. If that was all snow for IND, which it isn't, DT would be golden. Sharp cut off in NE Indiana though, and other places...ouch.

 

[cyclone77]

As I said about 20 other times today, liking 6-8" for here still, but if we end up with less, such as a 4-5" I'll still be happy.  Just happy to have a decent event to end the season with.  My mentality is already starting to shift more towards the severe season, so this is just a late season treat to me.  No matter what happens from here on out, it's been a very interesting/fun system to forecast/track.  Been a fun past 3 weeks for much of our sub.

[Harry]

Total QPF from the weeniest of all the models...0z NMM. If that was all snow for IND, which it isn't, DT would be golden. Sharp cut off in NE Indiana though, and other places...ouch.

 

3:5 0z NMM QPF.gif

 

What is his call?

[Chicago WX]

What is his call?

 

8-12" for Indy.

 

Map here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39584-march-4-6-winter-storm-pt-2/?p=2181874'>http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39584-march-4-6-winter-storm-pt-2/?p=2181874

[Jackstraw]

Got a nice "mini lollipop"  35 DBZ return sitting on top of me, Its moderate to heavy right now with 1/4 to 1/2 inch flakes.  i'm guessing this is the convergence zone from earlier today finally eroding the dry air.  Low level winds out of the East now.  Getting close to 2 inches.  Hopefully a sign of things to come

[Harry]

8-12" for Indy.

 

Map here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39584-march-4-6-winter-storm-pt-2/?p=2181874

 

Oh my..

[Chicago WX]

0z GEFS cut back QPF in N IL some, no surprise I guess. Congrats IKK.

 

[Geos]

Got a nice "mini lollipop"  35 DBZ return sitting on top of me, Its moderate to heavy right now with 1/4 to 1/2 inch flakes.  i'm guessing this is the convergence zone from earlier today finally eroding the dry air.  Low level winds out of the East now.  Getting close to 2 inches.  Hopefully a sign of things to come

 

Congrats on the early snow! 

 

Spitting flurries right now here.

[Thundersnow12]

cycloneville bullseye

 

[cyclone77]

cycloneville bullseye

 

acsnw_sfc_f24.png

 

Looks great for you and most of Chicago as well. 

[snowlover2]

0z Euro back south a bit almost looks like last night's 0z run.

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF came in a bit drier in the DVN to ORD/IKK corridor.

 

ORD is <0.60" this run.

[ctrlohio59]

Anyone have QPF for CMH and IND?

[Harry]

I see very little difference between this run and the 12z. It has never been big on this system and probably won't ever be.

 

Pretty much. Same surface/UL track and nearly identical QPF.

[Thundersnow12]

0z ECMWF came in a bit drier in the DVN to ORD/IKK corridor.

 

ORD is <0.60" this run.

 

You make a call?

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF QPF text list...

 

LSE:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -3.4    -7.2    1019      84      99    0.03     548     532    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -4.9    -8.9    1018      90     100    0.12     544     530    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -3.9   -10.2    1019      83      98    0.27     540     526    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -4.0   -11.2    1022      85      96    0.14     543     526    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -9.5    -9.1    1025      89      85    0.01     548     529

MSN:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -3.3    -6.0    1016      81      99    0.01     547     534    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -3.0    -8.0    1016      85     100    0.17     543     530    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.3   -10.9    1018      87      97    0.24     542     527    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -5.8    -9.5    1022      87      87    0.05     547     530

MKE:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -6.3    1016      76      97    0.04     545     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -9.3    1016      83      99    0.14     543     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -7.1    1019      84      88    0.05     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.6    -6.9    1023      86      34    0.01     550     532

RAC:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.6    -5.5    1015      77      98    0.05     545     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.8    -9.3    1015      83      99    0.19     542     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -7.5    1018      84      88    0.06     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -7.0    1023      85      35    0.01     550     532    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.2    -7.6    1026      76      60    0.01     553     533

CID:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -2.2    -4.5    1016      88      98    0.03     549     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -3.3    -6.9    1016      93     100    0.12     545     532    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -3.2    -9.3    1017      91      98    0.20     538     525    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.2   -10.9    1020      86      84    0.04     540     524

DVN:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.9    -3.5    1016      82      99    0.04     551     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.2    -4.7    1014      89     100    0.11     547     536    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.8    -8.4    1015      90      99    0.27     541     529    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.2   -10.7    1018      87      97    0.13     539     525    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -5.1    -9.3    1023      85      80    0.01     548     530

STL:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   5.0     1.6    1010      83      70    0.04     555     546    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   3.2     0.0    1011      94      98    0.04     551     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.1    -6.9    1015      81      41    0.16     543     531

PAH:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   8.7     5.5    1009      91      95    0.04     558     551    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   7.6     5.4    1008      98      65    0.02     556     549    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.7    -0.8    1012      98      99    0.22     549     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   4.5    -7.5    1016      44      28    0.08     540     527

PIA:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.2    -2.4    1012      85     100    0.04     549     539    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.0    -6.0    1013      90      98    0.18     543     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.5   -10.0    1016      89      99    0.14     538     525    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -9.7    1021      84      78    0.04     547     531

RFD:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -6.3    1014      89      98    0.19     543     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.1   -10.2    1016      89      99    0.31     541     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.6    -8.2    1021      85      84    0.06     547     531 

DKB:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -5.1    1013      89      98    0.16     544     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -9.6    1015      90     100    0.34     541     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.1    -7.9    1019      85      85    0.08     546     531

DPA:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.2    -4.2    1013      87      99    0.12     545     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -9.4    1014      90      99    0.35     541     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.2    -8.3    1018      86      84    0.10     546     532

UGN:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -4.5    1014      82     100    0.07     545     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -9.6    1015      85     100    0.28     542     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -8.0    1018      85      89    0.08     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.4    -6.6    1023      86      45    0.01     550     532    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.4    -7.3    1026      75      63    0.01     553     533

ORD:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.2    -3.9    1013      86     100    0.09     545     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -9.3    1014      89     100    0.35     541     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -8.6    1017      86      83    0.11     546     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.8    -5.6    1022      87      60    0.01     550     533 

MDW:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -0.5    -3.6    1013      83      99    0.09     545     535    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -8.7    1013      89      99    0.37     541     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -8.2    1017      85      85    0.13     545     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -6.1    1022      86      63    0.01     550     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.3    -6.2    1025      80      62    0.01     554     534 

DEC:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.8    -0.3    1011      82      95    0.03     550     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.4    -3.9    1011      93     100    0.11     545     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.0    -9.6    1014      84      97    0.14     537     526    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -9.3    1018      84      85    0.06     544     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -4.0    -6.9    1024      79      56    0.01     553     534

VPZ:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.1    -2.5    1012      73     100    0.06     546     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -7.1    1012      91     100    0.39     541     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -7.0    1015      86      96    0.24     544     532

LAF:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.5    -0.5    1013      70      97    0.03     551     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.6    -0.9    1010      91      99    0.09     547     539    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.6    -6.2    1009      93     100    0.27     540     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -8.1    1013      91      97    0.24     542     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -5.8    1020      87      84    0.03     550     535    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.6    -4.7    1024      75      45    0.01     555     536    
THU 00Z 07-MAR  -0.7    -5.9    1027      89      42    0.01     557     536

IND:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.9     0.6    1013      66      97    0.03     552     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.9     0.6    1009      92      92    0.11     549     542    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   0.8    -5.3    1007      99      99    0.25     541     535    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -8.4    1011      92      96    0.35     540     531    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.9    -5.7    1018      86      82    0.08     549     534

BMG:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.9     2.0    1011      83      98    0.05     553     544    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   3.6     1.7    1008      97      85    0.08     549     543    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   0.7    -6.2    1008      97      98    0.32     540     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -9.3    1011      89      96    0.21     539     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -6.4    1018      84      73    0.06     549     535

MIE:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   1.1    -0.7    1018      63      98    0.01     553     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.0    -0.6    1015      76      96    0.02     552     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.8     0.0    1010      77      99    0.07     549     541    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.1    -3.9    1007      93      99    0.19     542     537    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -6.2    1009      92      98    0.44     540     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.6    -4.6    1016      86      72    0.14     547     535

OKK:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   1.5    -0.9    1017      59      97    0.01     553     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.4    -0.7    1014      75      96    0.01     551     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.1    -0.5    1010      75     100    0.05     548     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.2    -5.3    1008      88     100    0.24     541     535    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -7.3    1011      92      97    0.35     541     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -4.9    -4.7    1018      87      63    0.06     549     534 

FWA:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   0.7    -1.1    1019      51      98    0.01     552     537    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -1.5    1016      62      96    0.00     551     539    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.2    -1.5    1012      59      99    0.01     549     539    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -3.6    1009      79     100    0.16     543     535    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -5.7    1010      86      98    0.40     542     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.9    -4.4    1017      84      26    0.05     548     535

MKG:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.6    -6.2    1014      74      87    0.01     544     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.7    -6.0    1017      83      38    0.01     546     532

GRR:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -5.2    1014      77      84    0.01     544     533    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.5    -5.2    1016      85      36    0.01     545     533

BTL:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.2    -6.6    1012      71     100    0.05     544     535    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.0    -4.6    1014      82      77    0.05     544     533 

TOL:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -3.2    1011      68     100    0.02     545     537    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -4.1    1010      75      92    0.07     543     535    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -4.9    1015      81      12    0.01     546     534

DAY:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   0.7    -0.2    1019      67      99    0.03     554     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -0.9    -0.4    1016      76      88    0.02     553     540    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.4     0.4    1011      71      96    0.05     551     542    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.7    -0.6    1004      95      99    0.10     544     541    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -3.8    1003      93      99    0.51     538     535    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -4.9    1011      87      79    0.27     545     536

HAO:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   2.3     0.5    1018      58      97    0.01     555     540    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.4     0.4    1014      67      95    0.01     554     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.1     1.4    1010      85      91    0.08     551     543    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   3.0     0.4    1003      95      99    0.14     543     541    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -0.9    -4.6    1004      92     100    0.49     536     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -5.4    1012      85      85    0.26     545     535    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   1.1    -4.2    1020      74      13    0.01     552     536

CMH:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.1    -0.8    1017      59      87    0.03     553     539    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   4.1    -0.8    1013      58      98    0.01     551     541    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   3.2    -0.4    1005      74      98    0.02     546     542    
WED 06Z 06-MAR   1.1    -2.0    1001      95     100    0.45     539     538    
WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.0    -5.1    1008      88      94    0.30     542     536    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   3.2    -6.3    1017      73      18    0.01     550     536

CLE:

WED 06Z 06-MAR   0.4    -2.5    1007      73      90    0.01     543     537    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -5.2    1013      83      46    0.06     544     534

[GordoFabulous]

Can I get the QPF for MIE?  Thanks.

[Chicago Storm]

You make a call?

I'll stick with my first call from 2 days back... 5.0" for ORD.

[mimillman]

Where is ThunderRoad? Valparaiso looks like a good place to be for this one.

[Harry]

Yeah it has been.. Other then the runs that took the UL to TN the euro has held strong. Right now it looks to win the model war as all the others have come back to it.

 

Interesting model battle to the end.

[Harry]

Where is ThunderRoad? Valparaiso looks like a good place to be for this one.

 

He is back east unfortunately and wont be back till after the storm.

[cyclone77]

Euro looks like around 6" here.  Recent trends point towards the low end of my 6-8" call, but it still looks like our first 6" snow since the GHD storm in early '11.

[Chicago Storm]

LOT...

 

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW...POINTING AT THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS HAVING
THE WORST CONDITIONS. DONT HAVE THE BEST CONFIDENCE REGARDING 1/4SM
PREVAILING FOR SUCH A LONG PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS BELOW
MET/MAV LOWEST GUIDANCE...BUT THINK THAT KEEPING TEMPO 1/4SM IS
STILL A GOOD CALL AS PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY. STRONG
FORCING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IS CENTERED WELL WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE LEADING TO EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION AND SNOWFALL RATES
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE
DGZ DEEPENS...AND DESPITE THE FORCING BECOMING SOMEWHAT
OFFSET...FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1SM VSBY HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES. IN ADDITION...VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY HELP TO
ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE CHICAGO AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND
MAY FURTHER COMPLICATE VSBY FCST. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 7 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW.

[cyclone77]

Latest RAP drops 0.80" here by late afternoon, with it still ripping.  Always fun to see but unfortunately for this area it's probably overdone.  So all in all this won't be a blockbuster, memorable event for this area, but a decent snowstorm to be sure, and definitely the best one of this winter.  Blah, I've said enough, time for bed.  Good luck to everyone, and see you guys tomorrow night.

[mimillman]

Impressive for a clipper/hybrid. Looks like it's taking in moisture from the Gulf of California.

[nwohweather]

Don't know what the NWS in Cleveland is thinking issuing 3-6" for Toledo metro. I think we should expect 1-2" barring this one going north of projections

[Thundersnow12]

Gosh is the NAM bad, 6z run through 12hr already wetter and a tad further north at the sfc.

[nwohweather]

Gosh is the NAM bad, 6z run through 12hr already wetter and a tad further north at the sfc.

Haha not for this guy