mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For the new found RGEM fans. Really, probably not that different from the GFS or NAM. But, 15-20mm=0.60-0.80" 3:5 0z RGEM snow.gif Flight to Virginia anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 well there's always the chaos factor with this storm...lol. Dynamic thump cooling, warm pockets aloft.... no matter what this isn't going to be a 'clean' event. Very true. I am definitely concerned about WAA. Plenty of precip with this system with both the NAM and GFS, but it will all ride on when the switch over from rain to snow occurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Oh my...this is priceless. One to hang on my wall for sure. 3:5 0z GFS snow.gif Tommy's RPM looks like 7.1 for you and 10.3 here, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 -sn starting to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Tommy's RPM looks like 7.1 for you and 10.3 here, haha. In RPM we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Final, final. I rounded or halved the numbers so Hoosier doesn't get mad. Good luck to all! DBQ: 7.5"FWA: 6.5" IKK: 7.0" IND: 3.0" LAF: 4.5"LSE: 8.5"MDW: 7.5" MIE: 7.0"MKE: 2.0"MLI: 7.0"MSN: 6.0" OKK: 6.0"ORD: 6.5"RFD: 6.5"SBN: 6.5" UGN: 5.5" OH locations: T-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Final, final. I rounded or halved the numbers so Hoosier doesn't get mad. Good luck to all! DBQ: 7.5" FWA: 6.5" IKK: 7.0" IND: 3.0" LAF: 4.5" LSE: 8.5" MDW: 7.5" MIE: 7.0" MKE: 2.0" MLI: 7.0" MSN: 6.0" OKK: 6.0" ORD: 6.5" RFD: 6.5" SBN: 6.5" UGN: 5.5" Look very solid to me. I think ORD might have closer to 8" though. I see you now included LAF in your list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 -sn starting to fall Ditto. So much for the dry air tonight. Thanks Chicago wx - you kept me above 5"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I see you now included LAF in your list. It's like betting on your own team. And we have terrible starting pitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 03z RAP ripping over northern IL at 21z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Final, final. I rounded or halved the numbers so Hoosier doesn't get mad. Good luck to all! DBQ: 7.5" FWA: 6.5" IKK: 7.0" IND: 3.0" LAF: 4.5" LSE: 8.5" MDW: 7.5" MIE: 7.0" MKE: 2.0" MLI: 7.0" MSN: 6.0" OKK: 6.0" ORD: 6.5" RFD: 6.5" SBN: 6.5" UGN: 5.5" Gee us Ohio folk kinda feel'n left out of the forum clique.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 WRF-NMM dropped us from 1.50"+ on the 12z to about 0.60" on the 00z. Nice to see it come back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gee us Ohio folk kinda feel'n left out of the forum clique.... Honestly, I don't know what the call is for OH locations. Looks dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Honestly, I don't know what the call is for OH locations. Looks dicey. t-6" for every location seems good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 t-6" for every location seems good to me lol, sounds good. I'll add it to the list. And, 0z UKie total QPF, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Been coming down at a pretty good clip with an END wind here south of Warsaw In. about an inch now. Secondary roads and grassy areas are covered and Highway15 is getting slushy. I agree, so much for the dry air ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Been coming down at a pretty good clip with an END wind here south of Warsaw In. about an inch now. Secondary roads and grassy areas are covered and Highway15 is getting slushy. I agree, so much for the dry air ;-) Nice, bonus snow. Made me at look at radar...and then look outside. A few flakes falling here right now. IND bumped the top end an inch for LAF with the new zones. Better than downward. Tuesday Night: Breezy. Occasional snow...then snow likely after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 7 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have really been on the fence between 3-5 and 4-6 for here. The fact that it's a changeover event kinda scares me. On the other hand, with temps not being very warm going in and precip rates expected to be good, I would expect the snow to stick pretty quickly when it does change over. Given latest runs, I suspect we may be battling precip type issues until around 20-22z, after which a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly nearing 1" per hour can be expected. Given above concerns I am going to stay a hair conservative and go with 3-5". If there's a future adjustment, I would expect it to be minor and upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I love how this is looking here now. American models namely the NAM finally shifting south and agreeing with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have really been on the fence between 3-5 and 4-6 for here. The fact that it's a changeover event kinda scares me. On the other hand, with temps not being very warm going in and precip rates expected to be good, I would expect the snow to stick pretty quickly when it does change over. Given latest runs, I suspect we may be battling precip type issues until around 20-22z, after which a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly nearing 1" per hour can be expected. Given above concerns I am going to stay a hair conservative and go with 3-5". If there's a future adjustment, I would expect it to be minor and upward. Sounds good. You guys may not be in the jackpot, but changeover events can be quite fun, and this certainly looks like a fun one for you guys. Should really rip for awhile after it changes over. We've had a few similar events here this winter and they were quite entertaining. My guess for LAF all along has been 3-6", but if I were to pick a solid value I'd go with a good 5" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Last run here using 00Z NAM data....much drier than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Skilling's thoughts regarding drier 0z runs..... "He says this always happens on the run before the event and it scares everyone but everything prior to this suggests a healthy snow. if the phasing of the two systems somehow doesn't materialize then we will all be eating crow lol but most areas will get 6"+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol, sounds good. I'll add it to the list. And, 0z UKie total QPF, FWIW. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=92683'>3:5 0z UK QPF.gif May be my eyes playing tricks on me but that seems north of the previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Sounds good. You guys may not be in the jackpot, but changeover events can be quite fun, and this certainly looks like a fun one for you guys. Should really rip for awhile after it changes over. We've had a few similar events here this winter and they were quite entertaining. My guess for LAF all along has been 3-6", but if I were to pick a solid value I'd go with a good 5" for LAF. 4.5" is the number to beat here for a single event this season so this one has a shot. I agree, it will be a fun storm but a harrowing experience on the streets of LAF as is normally the case whenever it snows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Have really been on the fence between 3-5 and 4-6 for here. The fact that it's a changeover event kinda scares me. On the other hand, with temps not being very warm going in and precip rates expected to be good, I would expect the snow to stick pretty quickly when it does change over. Given latest runs, I suspect we may be battling precip type issues until around 20-22z, after which a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly nearing 1" per hour can be expected. Given above concerns I am going to stay a hair conservative and go with 3-5". If there's a future adjustment, I would expect it to be minor and upward. It's a tough call. Have to hope changeover isn't delayed. Something like the NAM scares me though. Temps approaching 40º. 15 03/05 15Z 35 32 97 12 0.01 0.00 540 549 -0.2 -22.4 1011 100 -RA 032OVC233 0.0 15.118 03/05 18Z 39 35 95 11 0.03 0.00 540 547 0.0 -22.7 1009 100 -RA 017OVC202 0.0 11.421 03/05 21Z 36 34 44 7 0.10 0.00 538 544 -2.4 -22.6 1007 100 RA 009OVC276 0.1 5.224 03/06 00Z 30 30 39 11 0.16 0.00 535 541 -3.9 -23.4 1007 100 -SN 007OVC279 1.6 0.627 03/06 03Z 28 27 7 14 0.13 0.00 532 540 -5.8 -23.7 1010 100 -SN 008OVC279 1.3 0.730 03/06 06Z 29 27 358 18 0.09 0.00 532 542 -6.4 -23.1 1012 100 -SN 009OVC279 0.9 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looking at a 1-4 inch event here. Hoping this one changes over quickly and dumps over us. We struggle with rain to snow events a lot. I love the UKIE, I'd be in heaven, but I also realize there's a 0.000000000000001 percent chance that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 May be my eyes playing tricks on me but that seems north of the previous runs A little bit, but not much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can't help but have this feeling that the 0z dryness is a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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