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March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2


Harry

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well there's always the chaos factor with this storm...lol.   Dynamic thump cooling, warm pockets aloft.... no matter what this isn't going to be a 'clean' event.

Very true. I am definitely concerned about WAA. Plenty of precip with this system with both the NAM and GFS, but it will all ride on when the switch over from rain to snow occurs... :yikes:

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Final, final. I rounded or halved the numbers so Hoosier doesn't get mad. :D

 

Good luck to all!

 

DBQ: 7.5"
FWA: 6.5"

IKK: 7.0"

IND: 3.0"

LAF: 4.5"
LSE: 8.5"
MDW: 7.5"

MIE: 7.0"
MKE: 2.0"
MLI: 7.0"
MSN: 6.0"

OKK: 6.0"
ORD: 6.5"
RFD: 6.5"
SBN: 6.5"

UGN: 5.5"

OH locations: T-6"

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Final, final. I rounded or halved the numbers so Hoosier doesn't get mad. :D

 

Good luck to all!

 

DBQ: 7.5"

FWA: 6.5"

IKK: 7.0"

IND: 3.0"

LAF: 4.5"

LSE: 8.5"

MDW: 7.5"

MIE: 7.0"

MKE: 2.0"

MLI: 7.0"

MSN: 6.0"

OKK: 6.0"

ORD: 6.5"

RFD: 6.5"

SBN: 6.5"

UGN: 5.5"

 

 

Look very solid to me.  I think ORD might have closer to 8" though.  I see you now included LAF in your list.  :tomato:

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Final, final. I rounded or halved the numbers so Hoosier doesn't get mad. :D

 

Good luck to all!

 

DBQ: 7.5"

FWA: 6.5"

IKK: 7.0"

IND: 3.0"

LAF: 4.5"

LSE: 8.5"

MDW: 7.5"

MIE: 7.0"

MKE: 2.0"

MLI: 7.0"

MSN: 6.0"

OKK: 6.0"

ORD: 6.5"

RFD: 6.5"

SBN: 6.5"

UGN: 5.5"

Gee us Ohio folk kinda feel'n left out of the forum clique.... :(

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Been coming down at a pretty good clip with an END wind here south of Warsaw In. about an inch now. Secondary roads and grassy areas are covered and Highway15 is getting slushy. I agree, so much for the dry air ;-)

 

Nice, bonus snow.

 

Made me at look at radar...and then look outside. A few flakes falling here right now.

 

IND bumped the top end an inch for LAF with the new zones. Better than downward. 

 

Tuesday Night: Breezy. Occasional snow...then snow likely after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 2 to 7 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

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Have really been on the fence between 3-5 and 4-6 for here. The fact that it's a changeover event kinda scares me. On the other hand, with temps not being very warm going in and precip rates expected to be good, I would expect the snow to stick pretty quickly when it does change over. Given latest runs, I suspect we may be battling precip type issues until around 20-22z, after which a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly nearing 1" per hour can be expected.

Given above concerns I am going to stay a hair conservative and go with 3-5". If there's a future adjustment, I would expect it to be minor and upward.

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Have really been on the fence between 3-5 and 4-6 for here. The fact that it's a changeover event kinda scares me. On the other hand, with temps not being very warm going in and precip rates expected to be good, I would expect the snow to stick pretty quickly when it does change over. Given latest runs, I suspect we may be battling precip type issues until around 20-22z, after which a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly nearing 1" per hour can be expected.

Given above concerns I am going to stay a hair conservative and go with 3-5". If there's a future adjustment, I would expect it to be minor and upward.

 

Sounds good.  You guys may not be in the jackpot, but changeover events can be quite fun, and this certainly looks like a fun one for you guys.  Should really rip for awhile after it changes over.  We've had a few similar events here this winter and they were quite entertaining.  My guess for LAF all along has been 3-6", but if I were to pick a solid value I'd go with a good 5" for LAF.

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Skilling's thoughts regarding drier 0z runs..... "He says this always happens on the run before the event and it scares everyone but everything prior to this suggests a healthy snow. if the phasing of the two systems somehow doesn't materialize then we will all be eating crow lol but most areas will get 6"+"

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Sounds good. You guys may not be in the jackpot, but changeover events can be quite fun, and this certainly looks like a fun one for you guys. Should really rip for awhile after it changes over. We've had a few similar events here this winter and they were quite entertaining. My guess for LAF all along has been 3-6", but if I were to pick a solid value I'd go with a good 5" for LAF.

4.5" is the number to beat here for a single event this season so this one has a shot. I agree, it will be a fun storm but a harrowing experience on the streets of LAF as is normally the case whenever it snows here. ;)

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Have really been on the fence between 3-5 and 4-6 for here. The fact that it's a changeover event kinda scares me. On the other hand, with temps not being very warm going in and precip rates expected to be good, I would expect the snow to stick pretty quickly when it does change over. Given latest runs, I suspect we may be battling precip type issues until around 20-22z, after which a period of mod/hvy snow with rates possibly nearing 1" per hour can be expected.

Given above concerns I am going to stay a hair conservative and go with 3-5". If there's a future adjustment, I would expect it to be minor and upward.

 

It's a tough call. Have to hope changeover isn't delayed. Something like the NAM scares me though. Temps approaching 40º. :yikes:

 

 

15 03/05 15Z   35     32      97      12    0.01  0.00    540    549   -0.2 -22.4 1011 100 -RA   032OVC233    0.0   15.118 03/05 18Z   39     35      95      11    0.03  0.00    540    547    0.0 -22.7 1009 100 -RA   017OVC202    0.0   11.421 03/05 21Z   36     34      44       7    0.10  0.00    538    544   -2.4 -22.6 1007 100 RA    009OVC276    0.1    5.224 03/06 00Z   30     30      39      11    0.16  0.00    535    541   -3.9 -23.4 1007 100 -SN   007OVC279    1.6    0.627 03/06 03Z   28     27       7      14    0.13  0.00    532    540   -5.8 -23.7 1010 100 -SN   008OVC279    1.3    0.730 03/06 06Z   29     27     358      18    0.09  0.00    532    542   -6.4 -23.1 1012 100 -SN   009OVC279    0.9    1.5
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