Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z GFS doesn't look that much drier for N IL. Still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS, much like the NAM, showing potential disaster for CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like plain rain through 21z to me. Unless my location is off... 00z NAM pretty much has the same timing. You made it sound like we were shutout or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS, much like the NAM, showing potential disaster for CMH. was just trying to post this: blech 00z runs blowing for cmh... this might be back to an advisory by tomorrow afternoon...if that. Lost that i-70 corridor deform band look and most of the heavier precip is further sw. Warm air further entrenched from southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS, much like the NAM, showing potential disaster for CMH. Yeah, maybe a typical primary to coastal screw job? I guess the low weakens so we don't get as much CAA to quickly change the rain over to snow. Thus we are left with way lower totals...Looks like about 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those SREF numbers have such a wide range to them. Yikes. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DVN not liking the NAM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL922 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013.UPDATE...JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS WEST BY A CATEGORY FOR THE RESTOF THE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWER TO EVOLVE THANPREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANTPRECIP/SNOW SHOULD NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARCOMPOSITES WERE SHOWING AN EXPANSION OF LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERNIOWA THE PAST HOUR BETWEEN SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY/S MOVINGNORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL MO MORE SHOWERY LOOKING PRECIP FROMNORTHERN IA INTO MN. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THE NORTHERN MO/IAAREAS WILL MERGE THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE BETTER FORCING AHEADOF THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVING IN.NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST CONCERNING SNOW FALLAMOUNTS OR HEADLINES. THE 00Z NAM CAME IN WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKNORTHEAST OF THE MONDAYS RUNS SUGGESTING LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS...BUTTHE NAM HAS BEEN A NORTHEASTERN OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SEVERALRUNS. THE LATEST RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW ALONG ASIMILAR TRACK AS MONDAY/S MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah, maybe a typical primary to coastal screw job? I guess the low weakens so we don't get as much CAA to quickly change the rain over to snow. Thus we are left with way lower totals...Looks like about 1 inch I should have stuck to my guns with this one. I said several days ago that these setups, (strong ULL dropping in from the nw), are almost ALWAYS a cmh screwjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS about what I expected, drier but not nearly as bad as the NAM. Looks very Euroish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00z NAM pretty much has the same timing. You made it sound like we were shutout or something. Just riding that line...was hoping for a little tug south. Go 30 miles north and it's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those SREF numbers have such a wide range to them. Yikes. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 There's one member who apparently doesn't like a storm happening. Extreme outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 2,000 people online taking a toll on the server which is expected as that is a ton. Can only imagine how many of them keep hitting the refresh button? Par for the course with a potentially major snowtorm impacting the east coast. *sigh* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Maybe the RUC isn't that crazy after all?????? There is no RUC. It's dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z GFS doesn't look that much drier for N IL. Still pretty good. Was a tad wetter than the GFS NAM here. Flakes are on the increase here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There is no RUC. It's dead. I was wondering what the heck.... angry?? you mean RAP?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS about what I expected, drier but not nearly as bad as the NAM. Looks very Euroish to me. Drier than the Euro, especially in these parts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still riding 6-8" here. Can't really see us getting any less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Oh my...this is priceless. One to hang on my wall for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Oh my...this is priceless. One to hang on my wall for sure. 3:5 0z GFS snow.gif Still dumps about 7 inches of snow on Cedar Rapids. And OUCH at Lafayette in that small hole of 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Been light snow in my area since 9. Picked up in thelast hour, covering cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for the central OH crowd... Gelber not impressed, 1-3" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks for giving me the "Rap"....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 for the central OH crowd... Gelber not impressed, 1-3" for the city. I'm still liking my chances here in SW OH for a 6 in. storm ( Around Dayton ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Oh my...this is priceless. One to hang on my wall for sure. 3:5 0z GFS snow.gif lol, think that's just a quirk in the model run. Really wouldn't take that seriously. Run the same data through 20 times, and you'd probably get those little sucker holes popping up in all different areas. EDIT: Still liking 3-6 for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm still liking my chances here in SW OH for a 6 in. storm ( Around Dayton ) Yes, Dayton looks very good. Buckeye, ouch. My article I posted today had us in the 4-7 range I think we can still pull off 4 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm still liking my chances here in SW OH for a 6 in. storm ( Around Dayton ) much better shape further west with this one.... so yea, I agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes, Dayton looks very good. Buckeye, ouch. My article I posted today had us in the 4-7 range I think we can still pull off 4 at least. well there's always the chaos factor with this storm...lol. Dynamic thump cooling, warm pockets aloft.... no matter what this isn't going to be a 'clean' event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is funny. I mean, I'm not even mad. Can't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 well there's always the chaos factor with this storm...lol. Dynamic thump cooling, warm pockets aloft.... no matter what this isn't going to be a 'clean' event. Throw in the notorious model error of killing off the primary too quickly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 For the new found RGEM fans. Really, probably not that different from the GFS or NAM. But, 15-20mm=0.60-0.80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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