Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is pretty drastic...for some locations...that aren't expecting to see much snow. Not saying it's right of course. Looks like what the UK has been advertising all along. Encouraging run for areas south of us. There have been hints of it on various runs of various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 01z RAP has a microscopic 0.50" lolli right over us at 19z tomorrow afternoon. I'm taking that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 2,000 people online taking a toll on the server which is expected as that is a ton. Can only imagine how many of them keep hitting the refresh button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Encouraging run for areas south of us. There have been hints of it on various runs of various models. I forgot the UK had an 18z run. Found it on Plymouth. Doesn't look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Someone get the NAM(s) some lotion, it's all dried out. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/266/craps.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah FWIW, pretty big differences between the RAP/NAM valid 18z tomorrow. Both aloft and at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Board downtimes should be kept to a minimum...hopefully. There are a lot of people on but it's been less than what there was for Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm guessing the GFS comes in a tick drier than some of it's earlier runs, but nothing as drastic as the NAM. The American models have been pretty wet compared to the Euro, so it makes sense for them to dry up some as we get closer to the event. The NAM looks to have overcompensated too much tho lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yeah FWIW, pretty big differences between the RAP/NAM valid 18z tomorrow. Both aloft and at the sfc. I gave the NAM a chance, but no way the RAP gets a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Fingers crossed for this system, our biggest snowfall this winter is 2.7 inches, it's definitely our turn! I'm still thinking the champaign-Urbana area ends up with 4.8 inches..that's my final call. Congrats to areas up north, preferably will and cook county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I gave the NAM a chance, but no way the RAP gets a shot. lol. It has had it's moments though in the past. Seems to do well with storms that end up being more amped up than modeled early on, but that's probably because the RAP likes to over-amp everything lol. I guess it's a broken clock is right twice a day type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Someone get the NAM(s) some lotion, it's all dried out. yikes, how embarassing to get 0" with a winterstorm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I gave the NAM a chance, but no way the RAP gets a shot. so you're not believing the NAM then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 MKE still hanging on AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI924 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013.UPDATE...WEAK 290 THETA SFC ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWERCONSENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT MAY SHAKEOUT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TOMENTION MAINLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CHANCE POPS DESPITE DRY AIRLINGERING AROUND 2K FT.18Z SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND NOW 00Z NAM SHOWING DRY AIR FEED FROMTHE EAST HAVING MORE OF AN EFFECT IN SLOWLY DOWN ACCUMULATING SNOWPUSHING INTO AND ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING. AXIS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCESTILL AFFECTS SOUTHWEST CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.THIS Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAINLY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEADOF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN WI.WORRIED THAT DRY AIR FEED MAY RESULT IN SHARP CUTOFF OFACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI. HOWEVER STILL NEED TO BECONCERNED ABOUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHALATER TUE AFTN AND EVE. AT THIS POINT...WL LET CURRENT WINTERSTORM WARNING AND ADVISORY CONTINUE. MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TODELAY HEADLINE IN PARTS OF THE EAST SEVERAL HOURS AFTER EXAMININGALL UPDATED DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM looks a tad northeast compared to 12z. Should do better for southeast WI. QC near the dry slot around noon, but it's about to pivot. Looks like a great run for here and much of northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 so you're not believing the NAM then? No... At least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just the Indiana sites for the 21z SREF snowfall numbers. Home team rules. BMG mean: 4.1" high: 6.7" low: 1.1" FWA mean: 5.9" high: 12.0" low: 0.4" HUF mean: 3.8" high: 6.1" low: 1.4" IND mean: 6.3" high: 13.2" low: 2.0" LAF mean: 7.0" high: 11.1" low: 3.3" MIE mean: 8.4" high: 12.9" low: 4.0" OKK mean: 7.4" high: 13.7" low: 1.6" SBN mean: 5.4" high: 10.7" low: 0.3" VPZ mean: 7.8" high: 12.6" low: 1.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 RGEM looks a tad northeast compared to 12z. Should do better for southeast WI. QC near the dry slot around noon, but it's about to pivot. Looks like a great run for here and much of northern IL. Looks like a decent bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just the Indiana sites for the 21z SREF snowfall numbers. Home team rules. LAF numbers have been trending up. FWIW, the low of 3.3" is identical to what Chad's new map has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z RGEM all rain for here through 19z. It's definitely north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just the Indiana sites for the 21z SREF snowfall numbers. Home team rules. BMG mean: 4.1" high: 6.7" low: 1.1" FWA mean: 5.9" high: 12.0" low: 0.4" HUF mean: 3.8" high: 6.1" low: 1.4" IND mean: 6.3" high: 13.2" low: 2.0" LAF mean: 7.0" high: 11.1" low: 3.3" MIE mean: 8.4" high: 12.9" low: 4.0" OKK mean: 7.4" high: 13.7" low: 1.6" SBN mean: 5.4" high: 10.7" low: 0.3" VPZ mean: 7.8" high: 12.6" low: 1.6" Could I get the website please? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Could I get the website please? Thanks. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php'>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php Right hand, near the top. "New Plumes Page" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like a decent bump north. All of northern IL, far southern WI, and northwest IN get some pretty heavy snow from noon onward. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z RGEM...LAF's worst nightmare. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS def looking like the NAM. Great run for those of us south of I70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 gfs drier also for Northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z RGEM...LAF's worst nightmare. Wow. ??? Could be better but looks like it rips pretty good once it changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Foreign/American last minute Swap anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 ??? Could be better but looks like it rips pretty good once it changes over. Looks like plain rain through 21z to me. Unless my location is off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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