March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2

[Ajdos]

6km grid spacing WRF-ARW initialized with 02z RAP 4 hour forecast (model start time: 06z) and used 00z NAM for boundary conditions. Morrison MP scheme used as well. All snowfall totals are assuming a 10:1 ratio.

 

Congrats Lake Michigan! 

[wisconsinwx]

LOL, would not surprise me at all..

 

I definitely think you'll see more than that (0.02").

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF QPF text list...

 

LSE:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -3.1    -4.4    1019      66      99    0.02     549     534    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -2.1    -3.9    1017      74      98    0.02     549     536    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -2.9    -6.7    1018      84     100    0.04     548     533    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -4.9    -7.7    1018      90     100    0.19     544     530    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -3.7    -9.8    1019      82      97    0.28     540     525    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -4.0   -11.3    1022      84      96    0.08     543     525 

MSN:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -4.3    -4.5    1019      79     100    0.01     550     535    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -3.1    -5.5    1016      80     100    0.03     547     534    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.8    -7.9    1017      86      98    0.20     543     530    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.5   -10.4    1019      87      96    0.21     542     527    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -6.6    -9.2    1023      87      83    0.02     546     529

MKE:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.1    -6.5    1016      80     100    0.07     545     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.6    -9.8    1017      81      99    0.17     542     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.6    -8.1    1020      84      95    0.09     546     530 

RAC:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.9    -5.8    1016      81      99    0.08     545     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -9.8    1017      81      98    0.20     542     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -8.3    1019      84      94    0.11     545     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -5.6    -7.2    1024      86      76    0.01     549     531

CID:

MON 12Z 04-MAR  -4.5    -1.2    1016      80      93    0.05     550     538    
MON 18Z 04-MAR  -1.4    -0.5    1015      81      87    0.05     551     539    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -1.3    -2.0    1014      78      81    0.02     551     540    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.3    -3.3    1015      80     100    0.01     550     538    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -2.7    -5.6    1015      93     100    0.18     545     533    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -2.8    -8.7    1017      92      99    0.20     538     525    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -3.2    -9.7    1021      84      86    0.05     541     525

DVN:

MON 18Z 04-MAR  -0.1    -0.9    1016      69      89    0.03     551     539    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR  -0.5    -1.5    1015      72      85    0.00     552     540    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR  -1.4    -2.5    1015      74      94    0.00     551     539    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -3.8    1014      89     100    0.09     547     536    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.5    -7.6    1015      91      98    0.25     540     528    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.8   -10.2    1019      87      97    0.13     540     525    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.1   -10.2    1024      84      64    0.01     547     529 

STL:

TUE 06Z 05-MAR   5.7     1.2    1010      68      50    0.01     555     546    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   3.8     0.7    1011      91      97    0.03     551     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   3.5    -5.7    1015      74      30    0.06     544     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   2.0    -9.0    1018      55      96    0.00     536     521    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.2   -10.8    1023      72      54    0.01     546     528 

PIA:

MON 18Z 04-MAR   2.7    -0.4    1016      60      89    0.03     553     540    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR   1.8    -1.2    1014      65      77    0.00     553     542    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   0.6    -1.0    1014      65      78    0.00     552     541    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   0.6    -1.5    1012      80      99    0.03     549     539    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.2    -5.3    1013      92      99    0.17     543     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.1    -9.6    1016      90      99    0.13     538     525    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.0    -9.8    1021      84      88    0.04     546     529

RFD:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -4.3    1015      77     100    0.02     548     537    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.7    -5.8    1014      89      99    0.22     543     532    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -9.7    1017      88      99    0.27     541     527    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.8    -9.1    1021      84      83    0.05     546     529

DKB:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR  -1.1    -3.5    1014      71     100    0.01     549     538    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.6    -4.7    1014      89      99    0.20     544     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.7    -9.7    1016      90     100    0.30     540     528    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.3    -9.0    1020      85      79    0.10     545     529

DPA:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.6    -4.0    1014      87     100    0.16     544     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -9.7    1015      89      99    0.34     541     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.7    -8.9    1019      85      82    0.14     545     530

UGN:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.8    -4.9    1015      85      98    0.12     545     533    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.0    -9.9    1016      83      98    0.28     542     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.0    -8.6    1019      85      91    0.13     545     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -5.9    -6.9    1024      86      76    0.01     550     531

ORD:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.6    -3.7    1014      86     100    0.14     545     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.8    -9.6    1015      87      98    0.37     541     529    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -9.0    1018      85      87    0.16     545     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -5.9    -6.4    1023      86      75    0.01     550     532

MDW:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -1.2    -3.4    1014      83     100    0.13     545     534    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.6    -9.1    1014      88      98    0.37     541     530    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -9.1    1018      87      86    0.16     544     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -4.4    -6.1    1023      85      78    0.01     550     532

DEC:

MON 18Z 04-MAR   4.7     0.4    1016      52      83    0.02     554     541    
TUE 00Z 05-MAR   4.5    -0.8    1013      56      59    0.00     555     544    
TUE 06Z 05-MAR   3.8     0.5    1013      54      64    0.00     554     543    
TUE 12Z 05-MAR   1.8     0.2    1011      82      91    0.03     551     541    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.7    -3.4    1011      94      99    0.08     545     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.4    -9.3    1014      82      95    0.09     536     525    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.9    -9.8    1019      80      94    0.05     543     528

VPZ:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR  -0.6    -2.5    1013      72     100    0.09     547     536    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -7.7    1013      90     100    0.39     541     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -8.1    1016      90      92    0.21     543     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.3    -5.9    1020      85      98    0.01     549     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR  -0.4    -4.8    1025      86      71    0.02     554     534

LAF:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.4    -0.8    1011      79      99    0.10     548     539    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.4    -6.9    1010      94     100    0.27     540     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.6    -8.7    1014      92      96    0.15     541     530    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.2    -5.5    1020      88      95    0.03     549     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR  -1.4    -5.0    1025      85      68    0.01     555     535

IND:

TUE 12Z 05-MAR   2.0     0.7    1013      50      91    0.01     553     542    
TUE 18Z 05-MAR   1.4     0.7    1010      88      97    0.11     550     541    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   0.7    -5.5    1008      99      98    0.19     541     534    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.4    -8.2    1012      91      97    0.15     539     529    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -6.5    1018      86      86    0.09     547     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR  -0.2    -5.7    1024      81      71    0.01     554     535    
THU 00Z 07-MAR  -0.8    -4.8    1027      86      34    0.01     557     536

OKK:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.0    -0.3    1011      63      99    0.05     549     540    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.4    -5.9    1009      90      99    0.24     542     534    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.1    -7.5    1012      91      97    0.24     540     531    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -3.6    -6.0    1018      87      89    0.09     548     533

FWA:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   0.5    -1.5    1014      57      98    0.01     549     538    
WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.9    -5.8    1011      79     100    0.12     543     535    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.0    -6.6    1011      89     100    0.36     541     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -4.9    1017      86      97    0.13     547     534

MKG:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -1.0    -7.0    1016      78      95    0.03     544     531    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -3.4    -7.1    1017      85      82    0.03     545     531

GRR:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.5    -5.8    1015      80      98    0.02     544     532    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.6    -6.2    1017      87      87    0.05     544     531    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.8    -6.1    1020      88      30    0.01     548     532

BTL:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -0.5    -6.7    1013      73     100    0.04     544     534    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -4.1    -5.9    1015      85      98    0.13     543     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -2.6    -5.5    1019      87      43    0.02     548     533

PTK:

WED 06Z 06-MAR  -2.3    -5.0    1013      83      48    0.01     544     533

DET:

WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -4.7    1012      79      58    0.01     544     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.6    -5.1    1016      78      33    0.01     546     533

DTW:

WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -4.7    1012      80      81    0.02     544     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.8    -4.9    1016      79      46    0.02     546     533

TOL:

WED 00Z 06-MAR  -2.6    -3.7    1012      71     100    0.01     546     536    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -4.8    1010      84      99    0.16     542     534    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.6    -5.1    1015      81      77    0.11     546     534    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.3    -5.4    1021      71      57    0.01     551     535

DAY:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   3.0     0.2    1012      61     100    0.06     552     542    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.3    -1.2    1007      88     100    0.15     545     540    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -1.6    -5.2    1006      94     100    0.47     538     533    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.7    -5.8    1011      91      95    0.24     543     534    
WED 18Z 06-MAR  -0.3    -5.4    1020      88      68    0.03     552     536

HAO:

TUE 18Z 05-MAR   2.9     1.2    1011      73      97    0.07     552     543    
WED 00Z 06-MAR   1.6    -1.3    1006      99      99    0.22     544     539    
WED 06Z 06-MAR  -0.9    -6.0    1006      93     100    0.47     537     532    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -1.5    -6.5    1012      88      96    0.20     543     533    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   0.5    -5.6    1020      79      75    0.03     552     536

CMH:

WED 00Z 06-MAR   3.2    -0.7    1007      60     100    0.02     547     542    
WED 06Z 06-MAR   0.6    -2.7    1003      95     100    0.40     539     537    
WED 12Z 06-MAR   1.0    -4.3    1007      93      84    0.23     542     536    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   3.2    -5.9    1017      74      83    0.04     550     536    
THU 00Z 07-MAR  -0.4    -5.7    1023      91      77    0.01     553     535

CLE:

WED 06Z 06-MAR   0.9    -2.3    1007      79     100    0.04     543     537    
WED 12Z 06-MAR  -0.1    -5.4    1013      90      97    0.23     544     534    
WED 18Z 06-MAR   2.5    -5.6    1019      74      62    0.03     550     535

[cyclone77]

Euro "only" drops about 5" here, but overall looks pretty similar to the 12z with the larger scale features.  Wouldn't be shocked to receive less than my 6-8" call, but the Euro looks a tad too dry to me.  I'm guessing the 12z version beefs up QPF again, similar to today's 12z.

[snowlover2]

I'll gladly take 7-8".

[Hoosier]

Euro is kinda cheap with precip in the main band.

[mimillman]

Euro looks good. I'll up my call to 4-7 over the Chicago area. Final.

[mimillman]

Slightly below today's forecast low. Models might be underestimating the resilience of the meager snowpack we have left.

[Ajdos]

6z Nam looks much better for S/Mi..

[Geos]

[Thundersnow12]

0/6z NAM run comparions of snow totals/QPF

 

 

 

[Thundersnow12]

zoomed in 6z NAM total QPF, showing lake enhancement nicely.

 

 

 

[BowMeHunter]

looks like nam picked up on the dry air early in wisconsin..  tough call for mke office.  probably low end warning event at best when you weigh in the euro..  I'd go strong advisory wording.

[snowlover2]

6z GFS has a small shift south.

 

 

[BowMeHunter]

def tossing the nam qpf here after seeing gfs. looks like a pretty easy advisory event for se wisc and 5-8" down south. back to bed.. should of just stayed in bed as this was  pretty much written in stone with the euro speaking loud and clear up here unless your the weenies at MKE  office.

[BowMeHunter]

surprised la crosse still going 10-13"   10 seems high side if lucky to me.

[BowMeHunter]

still going 7-9 for racine and kenosha..   warning here for 3-5 tomorrow and a weenie inch on both ends. 3-5" total would be my call for the city and advisory. They're the pro's though and I'm just a budget brand weenier.    Good luck LAF, I hope my 4" call bust low down there 

[kevlon62]

LOT hoists warnings for basically Cook/I-88 counties north from 3 a.m. Tuesday to midnight Wednesday (Tuesday night). Text mentions 6-9 with locally higher amounts (I'll take those here).

Here we go. Now to decide if I take Tuesday off or wait and see if we simply close. Either way I ain't going in. Trails are going to be something for the first full week of March. About two years coming.

[Harry]

Time for me to punt!

 

Congrats to those between i80 and i70.

[A-L-E-K]

weenie map incoming.

 

still snowing in cook county

[snowstormcanuck]

Got no problems with a miss to the SW but the way the GFS (and even the NAM now) are re-curving the storm to slam SNE stings a bit. Horseshoe shaped QPF holes FTL.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT sounds leery of amounts in their eastern CWA including Chicago...also don't sound too jazzed about LE

[AppsRunner]

CLE's watch here says 6-9", with the heavier amounts MBY and south, while the last I saw from a local met was 1-3" for Toledo and 2-4" here. Oh, consistency

[gosaints]

Gonna go with 8.4 imby....

[AppsRunner]

It is a tough setup. I suspect there won't be a lot settled by this time tomorrow yet. Moisture transport for the Atlantic could be the surprise variable in Ohio. 

Really the main difference is how the precip shield eventually pivots back to the east. The NAM/GFS take it basically due east across the route 6 corridor here while the GGEM/UKM and to some extent the ECMWF go ESE with the heaviest precip. 

[A-L-E-K]

HPC looks to be leaning south...which is great for MBY.  First time being on the favored northern edge of the good snows all winter.

 

 

[Jonger]

Towel thrown for SE Michigan.

[dmc76]

Towel thrown for SE Michigan.

We were never in the game.

[Trent]

Really the main difference is how the precip shield eventually pivots back to the east. The NAM/GFS take it basically due east across the route 6 corridor here while the GGEM/UKM and to some extent the ECMWF go ESE with the heaviest precip. 

 

For a system less than 36 hours away, the differences in Ohio by most of the model suites are incredible. Take a look at the 6z NMM/ARW ... that keeps NW Ohio and NE Indiana completely dry, with the heaviest swath in SW Ohio. Compare that to the NAM which has the heaviest axis of precip some 150 miles to the north and east in Ohio.

 

 

[buckeye]

It is a tough setup. I suspect there won't be a lot settled by this time tomorrow yet. Moisture transport for the Atlantic could be the surprise variable in Ohio. 

 

I agree it's a tough set up and probably a few big surprises and big disappointments.   I'm not sure about the Atlantic moisture transport though.  Don't you usually need to have a strong high parked north of the coastal low for that to happen....(ie Jan'96) ?