Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hilarious. 2 days ago, people were mocking the NAM. Now, they're in tears over it. everyone on board, the NAM is going down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still 0.50"+ for 99% of NE IL. All hope is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still spits out around 7" for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Honestly, at this point I'd rather get nothing than a nickel and dime storm, so it can shift the entire QPF shield south and west if it wants (hopefully not too far south so Chicago can still cash in). lol. You shed credibility faster than I shed hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC 12" snowfall probability bullseye has shifted to the WI/IL border. This is based on an ensemble of several models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the NAM is onto something, the qpf is looking much heavier in southwest Ohio after the phasing.... It will be interesting to see if/how this trend affects totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That isn't snowfall I'd like to see soundings on that. Verbatim....a thumping like it shows + 850's below freezing... hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That isn't snowfall Not all of it. But SW OH does fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5"-ish for here, but with some bizarre sucker hole to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 More realistic...panic ensues. Let's talk about t storms for next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol. You shed credibility faster than I shed hair. Trust me, it's only because of burnout, If this was earlier in the season, I would have taken it, but at this point, it'd be a lot easier if I knew (cue Willy Wonka) I get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Didn't the NAM nail the last event? Yes, I know the NAM is unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The polar and sub-tropical jets are just starting to merge, there will be a significant transformation of the storm structure over the next 6 hours as the surface low drops south towards the region of maximum jet forcing. Things are about to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lots of hard feelings here tonight. No worries up here... We went from nothing to 10-12" to 4-6" to 1-2" to flurries. Haven't had a winter storm warning since 2011.. In Michigan... I'm seeing some posts of people in Illinois complaining of not having a winter storm warning yet this month... Haha. I surely hope the severe weather season is better here this year. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio always get storms. Literally every event stops at the MI/IN border. It's weird. ALOT like this current storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3:5 0z NAM snowfall.gif NAM has been showing that inverted WTOD extending southeast to northwest across the southeastern quad of OH.... That map shows the results well. I could see that happening very easily. Prepare thyselves my fellow central Ohioans....and you won't be disappointed. We'll know fairly early on whether to throw the towel in or not at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Trust me, it's only because of burnout, If this was earlier in the season, I would have taken it, but at this point, it'd be a lot easier if I knew (cue Willy Wonka) I get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Didn't the NAM nail the last event? Yes, I know the NAM is unreliable. every dog has it's day once in a while. Nailing the last storm has nothing to do with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-5"-ish for here, but with some bizarre sucker hole to the southwest. Talk about a gradient on the north edge... sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM has been showing that inverted WTOD extending southeast to northwest across the southeastern quad of OH.... That map shows the results well. I could see that happening very easily. Prepare thyselves my fellow central Ohioans....and you won't be disappointed. We'll know fairly early on whether to throw the towel in or not at least. Yep, wouldn't surprise me either. Although, usually it runs from SW Ohio northeast along I-71. Hoping the GFS has a better handle on the temp profiles, but the NAM solution could certainly pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HPC 12" snowfall probability bullseye has shifted to the WI/IL border. This is based on an ensemble of several models. I'll take a 10% chance! Ceiling is getting noticeably lower here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lots of hard feelings here tonight. No worries up here... We went from nothing to 10-12" to 4-6" to 1-2" to flurries. Haven't had a winter storm warning since 2011.. In Michigan... I'm seeing some posts of people in Illinois complaining of not having a winter storm warning yet this month... Haha. I surely hope the severe weather season is better here this year. Illinois, Indiana and Ohio always get storms. Literally every event stops at the MI/IN border. It's weird. ALOT like this current storm system. meh... we did pretty well in 2010 and 2011. Last year sucked for most with T-Storm action not just here. We have lacked both a 6+ event and ofcourse a snowfall warning criteria event as well. We are the true penny/nickle capital of the country. Euro had the right idea all along of keeping all if not most of it to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yep, wouldn't surprise me either. Although, usually it runs from SW Ohio northeast along I-71. Hoping the GFS has a better handle on the temp profiles, but the NAM solution could certainly pan out. thus my made-up meterological term..."inverted WTOD" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wasn't this storm supposed to phase over IA/MN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Didn't the NAM nail the last event? Yes, I know the NAM is unreliable. NAM hires got it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And amwx goes down for the count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the NAM gave AmericanWx a heart attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Not complaining...KMDW Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr Sfc Prs(mb): 994.0 993.0 991.0 988.9 988.5 993.2 997.0 1001.0 1003.6 Mean SLP (mb): 1017.7 1016.7 1014.9 1012.6 1012.3 1017.1 1021.2 1025.0 1027.6 2m agl Tmp (F): 31.9 31.0 30.8 31.1 29.5 29.5 26.9 31.0 30.9 2m agl Dewpt(F): 24.3 27.1 28.2 29.6 28.2 27.3 24.9 28.1 30.1 2m agl RH (%): 73 85 90 94 95 92 92 89 97 10m agl Dir: 79 85 89 67 32 5 354 353 357 10m agl Spd(kt): 9 10 12 12 16 18 16 12 9 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.34 0.15 0.02 0.01 0.01 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.46 0.61 0.63 0.64 0.65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Don't know how much to put in this but the Radar right now looks a lot stronger than the Sim Radar the NAM has. Mainly in Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1. NAM causes havoc 2. AmericanWx goes crazy 3. Chicago METs unfazed Skilling still calling for 6-12 areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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