A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 he really doesnt care about the midwest either. I know...he's also especially bad when his backyard is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What the hell, 8-12 for us? Time to warm up the blower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DAY and TOL added as well. CMH mean: 3.9" high: 7.0" low: 1.6" CLE mean: 3.0" high: 7.1" low: 0.6" CVG mean: 2.2" high: 4.1" low: 0.8" DAY mean: 5.5" high: 9.8" low: 2.6" TOL mean: 3.7" high: 8.8" low: 0.2" quite the spread there... though it has slowly been decreasing every run. DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 00z guidance will be interesting because I suspect the models have been somewhat underdoing the northern energy portion of this complex storm and there is potential for a strong phasing of the two centers over IL-IN on Tuesday night. I suspect that this will turn out to be a very large snowfall event in the 12-16 inch category across parts of n/c IL-IN and 8-12 inches in e IA, central OH. Without Lake Michigan, Chicago would not be in the heaviest snowfall zone which looks to be oriented NW-SE from about Mason City IA to Peoria then more E-W towards Muncie and Columbus. However the Lake Michigan snow enhancement will merge with the heavier portion of the storm and create a double-max pattern with one max near Bloomington and another near Waukegan. Notice on RGEM how wind speeds would be increasing rapidly Tuesday night to 35-50 mph range. This could be a near-blizzard given the combination of 20-25 F temps, heavy snow and strong winds. Very sharp northern cutoff due to the wedge of dry air trapped between this circulation and the retrograde mild northeast flow pushing towards eastern ON and upstate NY. Even so, in that wedge of arctic air there could be local lake effect from NE winds off Lake Huron so that southern MI may not be as dry as some are expecting. Toledo OH will get a very heavy snowfall out of this from lake effect off Lake Erie. Heavy icing likely in parts of s/c IL and IN, precip will change phase several times but there could be a period of moderate ZR as well as ice pellets, sleet and snow. Expect thunder-snow in n/c IL and IN during the height of the storm Tuesday night. (Just saw the DT map, think that may verify a bit further north perhaps with a more robust 8-12 inch zone oriented east-west but 50-100 miles further north, and merging with Lake Michigan zone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just got call that my kids school is closed tomorrow ( in Buffalo Grove) way to early in my mind especially up here. Our district hasn't said anything. Of course, 90% of the kids that go to the local Elementary School live within 4 blocks of the school. Field Park School has had only 2 snow days, I think, in the last 30 years or something, and that was for the GHD blizzard in 2011. I am confident both the Jr. High and Elementary schools will be open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT + the Roger Smith J-field hookup = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Can't help but notice the difference in thickness of the 8-12" line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT + the Roger Smith J-field hookup = the new polymers don't rip like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 00z guidance will be interesting because I suspect the models have been somewhat underdoing the northern energy portion of this complex storm and there is potential for a strong phasing of the two centers over IL-IN on Tuesday night. I suspect that this will turn out to be a very large snowfall event in the 12-16 inch category across parts of n/c IL-IN and 8-12 inches in e IA, central OH. Without Lake Michigan, Chicago would not be in the heaviest snowfall zone which looks to be oriented NW-SE from about Mason City IA to Peoria then more E-W towards Muncie and Columbus. However the Lake Michigan snow enhancement will merge with the heavier portion of the storm and create a double-max pattern with one max near Bloomington and another near Waukegan. Notice on RGEM how wind speeds would be increasing rapidly Tuesday night to 35-50 mph range. This could be a near-blizzard given the combination of 20-25 F temps, heavy snow and strong winds. Very sharp northern cutoff due to the wedge of dry air trapped between this circulation and the retrograde mild northeast flow pushing towards eastern ON and upstate NY. Even so, in that wedge of arctic air there could be local lake effect from NE winds off Lake Huron so that southern MI may not be as dry as some are expecting. Toledo OH will get a very heavy snowfall out of this from lake effect off Lake Erie. What makes you confident in that? I've never seen a LES event from Lake Erie living in this area before... so that's an interesting call. Now I will admit there's not really many times with an easterly wind here but that's interesting to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What makes you confident in that? I've never seen a LES event from Lake Erie living in this area before... so that's an interesting call. Now I will admit there's not really many times with an easterly wind here but that's interesting to hear I wonder why that is. We get east or northeast wind LES several times a winter off Lk Ontario. Same goes for Huron, MI, and Superior. Maybe because the western half of Lk Erie is shallower and freezes up quickly? Although, I don't think I've seen it on radar or heard it mentioned in an AFD even early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 @ the DT map - He must have made that in his sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The 00z guidance will be interesting because I suspect the models have been somewhat underdoing the northern energy portion of this complex storm and there is potential for a strong phasing of the two centers over IL-IN on Tuesday night. I suspect that this will turn out to be a very large snowfall event in the 12-16 inch category across parts of n/c IL-IN and 8-12 inches in e IA, central OH. Without Lake Michigan, Chicago would not be in the heaviest snowfall zone which looks to be oriented NW-SE from about Mason City IA to Peoria then more E-W towards Muncie and Columbus. However the Lake Michigan snow enhancement will merge with the heavier portion of the storm and create a double-max pattern with one max near Bloomington and another near Waukegan. Notice on RGEM how wind speeds would be increasing rapidly Tuesday night to 35-50 mph range. This could be a near-blizzard given the combination of 20-25 F temps, heavy snow and strong winds. Very sharp northern cutoff due to the wedge of dry air trapped between this circulation and the retrograde mild northeast flow pushing towards eastern ON and upstate NY. Even so, in that wedge of arctic air there could be local lake effect from NE winds off Lake Huron so that southern MI may not be as dry as some are expecting. Toledo OH will get a very heavy snowfall out of this from lake effect off Lake Erie. Heavy icing likely in parts of s/c IL and IN, precip will change phase several times but there could be a period of moderate ZR as well as ice pellets, sleet and snow. Expect thunder-snow in n/c IL and IN during the height of the storm Tuesday night. (Just saw the DT map, think that may verify a bit further north perhaps with a more robust 8-12 inch zone oriented east-west but 50-100 miles further north, and merging with Lake Michigan zone). Well that would be an awesome scenario. What are you seeing exactly in the current surface obs or is it something in the mid to upper atmosphere to suggest this scenario? maps to see would be nice. Will definitely agree that this will be a colder storm. Running in the upper 20s now, dewpoints are colder than they were before the 2/26 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Map from DVN's fb page a bit ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey all. I'm new to the Midwest board. I've been on the SE coast for the last 20 years so tracking Winter storms is new to me. Been lurking and learning all winter. I'm about 20 miles south of Warsaw Indiana. We got surprised last week with 4.5 inches of Cement early Wed. morning. I've noticed a lot of NAM bashing lol. We always used the NAM for upper air forecasts, 300mb, in the tropics, it seemed to do pretty good way up high I do have a question. It would seem to me that it is unusual for a clipper type system to potentially dump this much precip. this far south, especially in the form of snow. Is it a timing issue with the southern surface low and consequential dip in the jet? It looks to me like the surface low to the south is coming across just in time to pump moisture north and and evacuating quickly enough to open the DOOR for the upper level feature and its associated cold air to dive south and intensify. Appreciate all on the board and wishing everyone a White St. Patty's Day Welcome to the board and the Midwest. Usually clippers come earlier in the winter season from the northwest and give good dry powder to the affected areas. I think the timing of March and the more abundant moisture plus the merging of two systems from OK and the Dakotas does play into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What makes you confident in that? I've never seen a LES event from Lake Erie living in this area before... so that's an interesting call. Now I will admit there's not really many times with an easterly wind here but that's interesting to hear It would take a perfect set-up for that to happen. Considering the ice cover, marginal temps and dry air to the NE that's not a great forecast. Roger probably was referring to lake enhancement... But again, not a great scenario for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like a DAB+ for DTW...... You win some you loose some. I thought with the constant northward drift we might get into the snow a little better. Oh well al least some of the areas which stunk so much this winter are getting into the thick of it. Enjoy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Map from DVN's fb page a bit ago... ILX is going bullish, versus IND. Compare the totals versus what they are over the border in IND's CWA. Brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Map from DVN's fb page a bit ago... I think that's a really good map. I looked hard and I found a 8"+ spot near the border near me! Seriously - I would be happy with just breaking 50" with this system. It's well within reach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the Mississippi River is going to come out on top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Bonus question... Who wants to bet the 0z NAM gets MKE squarely back in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Bonus question... Who wants to bet the 0z NAM gets MKE squarely back in the game? no chance...if by game you mean 5"+ EDIT: early guess it holds or goes a smidgen south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Bonus question... Who wants to bet the 0z NAM gets MKE squarely back in the game? For Saukville...i need a repeat 14 inch snow...he loves it too much and wants winter to never end.... please come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the Mississippi River is going to come out on top... We need all the moisture we can get in those drought affected areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 AAA mean: 4.8" TAZ mean: 3.1" high: 6.0" low: 1.0" There's places called AAA and TAZ? Wow. I wonder if they sell lots of insurance at that first one. I have never heard of Mt. Geos. Is this a large mountain that is over 601 ft. above sea level????? What makes you confident in that? I've never seen a LES event from Lake Erie living in this area before... so that's an interesting call. Now I will admit there's not really many times with an easterly wind here but that's interesting to hear Toledo doesn't sit close to the deep water area. The western lake is shallow and usually frozen. Also there's usually low-level wind shear when there is an easterly wind in Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 There's places called AAA and TAZ? Wow. I wonder if they sell lots of insurance at that first one. I have never heard of Mt. Geos. Is this a large mountain that is over 601 ft. above sea level????? Highest spot in the great state of Illinois. Deep snow found there from Dec 1 to Apr 1, U.P. style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no chance...if by game you mean 5"+ EDIT: early guess it holds or goes a smidgen south 500mb vort looks beastly early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Highest spot in the great state of Illinois. Deep snow found there from Dec 1 to Apr 1, U.P. style. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 no chance...if by game you mean 5"+ EDIT: early guess it holds or goes a smidgen south Saw someone post in another forum that the 21z SREF went south so chances are the 0z NAM goes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Saw someone post in another forum that the 21z SREF went south so chances are the 0z NAM goes south. maybe...that was my original guess but it looks stronger at 500/700 early on. By 9 hrs it's similar to 18z but stronger at 500/700 and maybe a hair north with northern energy. southern piece weaker/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 500mb vort looks beastly early on... It'll probably rip t'snow on Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.