SchaumburgStormer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Might be but even ILX has Bloomington getting 6.5" I don't doubt the possibility, but with a larger range in Pontiac, and smaller ranges in PIA and champaign makes this look odd. I would put Bloomington in the 3-6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My office is going to be open tomorrow...i get in around 6:30 or 7. IF the heavy solutions play out, it could be a long day. 15" almost at Midway lol. RPM buries you guys. Yeah I aint looking forward to the drive home tomorrow night, but it will be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wide spread for UGN. I guess it's somewhat noteworthy that places like IKK, JOT, ORD, and VPZ have lesser spreads. Maybe a bit better confidence in those potential amounts. But, I like to slash them by an inch or two...based off prior history. I am a big fan when the min exceeds 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 15" almost at Midway lol. RPM buries you guys. Yeah I aint looking forward to the drive home tomorrow night, but it will be worth it. The Wells St. bridge (and L tracks) are closed for renovations so all brown line riders are re-routed through the red line. This normally wouldn't matter since I take a lake shore drive express bus but during snowstorms LSD becomes a nightmare. If it starts cranking, it's either leave work early or just hang around downtown until the late evening when things wind down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am a big fan when the min exceeds 7" Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wide spread for UGN. I guess it's somewhat noteworthy that places like IKK, JOT, ORD, and VPZ have lesser spreads. Maybe a bit better confidence in those potential amounts. But, I like to slash them by an inch or two...based off prior history. Yeah it is kind of odd...models have been hinting at a razor cut off to the north for a while. Agree on trimming the amounts of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I like 4-7 across the CWA, highest far southwest and southern tip of the lake. Same. Been saying this for a while now, although it may be on the higher end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 You pretty much have it. We like to call it a hybrid clipper. They're not as rare as you may think, but not typical...you know? Seems this set up likes to happen when there is relatively strong blocking in place. December 2010 had a couple of good examples of this set up...but of course, the cold is more "marginal" this time of year. Good luck up there...your location looks pretty good. Ahhh, Hybrid Clipper. Me being a Purdue Grad you'd think I knew that lol. That cutoff line to my NE keeps meandering closer to me though. So I'm going to guess the farther south the southern part tracks the farther SW that cutoff line will be and vice versa. Where I live is kinda strange. It's in a depression almost 200 feet lower than the surrounding 10-15 mile radius. I think there's a lot of cold air pooling around here. Our temps are always 2-5 degrees cooler than the surrounding areas. Might explain why we got 50% more snow than the surrounding area last week. I'm looking forward to 8.5 here I think. We'll see how cool it gets tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DEC mean: 3.7" high: 6.8" low: 1.0" Don't have ILX, but I'll add some other central IL locations below. AAA mean: 4.8" high: 8.4" low: 1.8" BMI mean: 6.6" high: 10.7" low: 3.1" PIA mean: 6.2" high: 11.6" low: 3.2" SPI mean: 3.7" high: 7.6" low: 1.1" TAZ mean: 3.1" high: 6.0" low: 1.0" Would you mind adding CMH, CVG, and CLE? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really think the 4-7 calls for Chicago are conservative. It's going to be rip city in that band and the somewhat colder temps during the bulk of this event (compared to last time) should make a big difference. I'm also banking on something like 12-15:1 ratios given thermal profiles/moisture/lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 33962_496077817115924_1049908172_n.png They are in desperate need of a new graphic designer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really think the 4-7 calls for Chicago are conservative. It's going to be rip city in that band and the somewhat colder temps during the bulk of this event (compared to last time) should make a big difference. I'm also banking on something like 12-15:1 ratios given thermal profiles/moisture/lift. We'll see, I'm not ultra confident either direction. No take it to the bank guarantees this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Absolutely. so is my wife...a rarity to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 They are in desperate need of a new graphic designer. I've always thought LOT's shotty graphics were part of the charm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really think the 4-7 calls for Chicago are conservative. It's going to be rip city in that band and the somewhat colder temps during the bulk of this event (compared to last time) should make a big difference. I'm also banking on something like 12-15:1 ratios given thermal profiles/moisture/lift. 100% agreed. We'll see, I'm not ultra confident either direction. No take it to the bank clock guarantees this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Would you mind adding CMH, CVG, and CLE? Thanks! DAY and TOL added as well. CMH mean: 3.9" high: 7.0" low: 1.6" CLE mean: 3.0" high: 7.1" low: 0.6" CVG mean: 2.2" high: 4.1" low: 0.8" DAY mean: 5.5" high: 9.8" low: 2.6" TOL mean: 3.7" high: 8.8" low: 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 so is my wife...a rarity to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 still a bit of time to go...but radar starting to at least fill in a bit in Minnesota a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ahhh, Hybrid Clipper. Me being a Purdue Grad you'd think I knew that lol. That cutoff line to my NE keeps meandering closer to me though. So I'm going to guess the farther south the southern part tracks the farther SW that cutoff line will be and vice versa. Three things to watch really...where the 500, 700, 850 lows track. Surface low should be pretty much set. That'll tell the tale who gets some action, and those who will get shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 100% agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT's first call map.. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really think the 4-7 calls for Chicago are conservative. It's going to be rip city in that band and the somewhat colder temps during the bulk of this event (compared to last time) should make a big difference. I'm also banking on something like 12-15:1 ratios given thermal profiles/moisture/lift. I'm not sure about 15:1...12:1 could be doable, and 10:1 is a sure thing. You're probably right. 4-7 does seem a little paltry in light of all of the model guidance. However, I don't think amounts are going to go much beyond 8". QPF always tends to be overdone, and there's always the chance things don't quite go according to plan. If I hadn't already solidified 4-7 as my final call, I'd probably up it to 5-8" now, but I think I'll stick with it and be happy if I bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT's first call.. WOW! ? EDIT: never mind, I just saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just got call that my kids school is closed tomorrow ( in Buffalo Grove) way to early in my mind especially up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT has been so bad for so long...not feeling great about having more or less the same call as a guy with a terrible track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'd LOVE to hear his reasoning for the 8-12" over Indy. Not a good call...not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT has been so bad for so long...not feeling great about having more or less the same call as a guy with a terrible track record. he really doesnt care about the midwest either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just got call that my kids school is closed tomorrow ( in Buffalo Grove) way to early in my mind especially up here. They're probably figuring that they would close early anyway so might as well just close the entire day and then they don't have to worry about getting the kids home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.