March 4-6 Winter Storm pt 2

[SchaumburgStormer]

Yeah a bit better, especially since MKX didn't trim warnings all the way to the border. Going to be close for Brewers in Racine I think.

 

Grid has 4-10" right now.

 

Mine has 5-9 for tomorrow with 1-2 tuesday night. Warning text is 7-10 with locally higher amounts. This may be a rare "I beat Mt Geos" storm.

[McDude]

trowal like feature is very evident in that loop.

 

bonus feature: i'll be awake to see the snow falling...so sick of 3am events.

Yeah. Was nice with the last storm and now this one.

[Chitown Storm]

Already a decent list of schools closed for tomorrow. Many have already been burned once or twice recently by calling it too early...3rd times a charm?

 

seriously. And most of them seem to be from the city and north. Somewhat of a quick move considering the heavier snow is now expected from the city and south.  I never remember a snow day called before the storm actually hit....

[A-L-E-K]

lol @ ugn canceling school...they'll get like 4"

[Thundersnow12]

Bumping call to 7.5" here.

[Geos]

I overlayed the NAM snowfall onto the GE globe.

 

Given that deformation snows like to creep a tad north during events of this intensity - I'd say between Alek and ORD will be the lollipop area.

I included the area failing to get a 3" system this winter. Looks like that area will be wiped out finally!

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

I overlayed the NAM snowfall onto the GE globe.

 

Given that deformation snows like to creep a tad north during events of this intensity - I'd say between Alek and ORD will be the lollipop area.

I included the area failing to get a 3" system this winter. Looks like that area will be wiped out finally!

 

nam_overlay.png

Great work, as always.

[Jackstraw]

  Hey all.  I'm new to the Midwest board.  I've been on the SE coast for the last 20 years so tracking Winter storms is new to me. Been lurking and learning all winter. I'm about 20 miles south of Warsaw Indiana.  We got surprised last week with 4.5 inches of Cement early Wed. morning.  I've noticed a lot of NAM bashing lol.  We always used the NAM for upper air forecasts, 300mb, in the tropics, it seemed to do pretty good way up high  I do have a question. 

  It would seem to me that it is unusual for a clipper type system to potentially dump this much precip. this far south, especially in the form of snow.  Is it a timing issue with the southern surface low and consequential dip in the jet?  It looks to me like the surface low to the south is coming across just in time to pump moisture north and and evacuating quickly enough to open the DOOR for the upper level feature and its associated cold air to dive south and intensify.  

  Appreciate all on the board and wishing everyone a White St. Patty's Day 

[afterimage]

I overlayed the NAM snowfall onto the GE globe.

 

Given that deformation snows like to creep a tad north during events of this intensity - I'd say between Alek and ORD will be the lollipop area.

I included the area failing to get a 3" system this winter. Looks like that area will be wiped out finally!

 

nam_overlay.png

I like it, nice georeference....as a geographer/gis guy and small biz owner we do it all the time....now that i showed my nerdiness...but very nice

[Geos]

I like it, nice georeference....as a geographer/gis guy and small biz owner we do it all the time....now that i showed my nerdiness...but very nice

 

Haha, yeah I've done some georeferencing before with geology type projects. Fun stuff.

Little bit of a challenge with the less than ideal snowfall image resolution.

[Brewers]

Really don't know what to expect up here, the slightest shift north and I could be back in the heavier snow. Can't believe MKX is still calling for 4-8" here, 4 inches if we're lucky.

 

RAC: 3.6"

MKE: 2.5"

 

My calls for now...

[cyclone77]

Nice map G.

 

Early look at the RAP, FWIW.

 

[CIWeather]

2 WWAs from ILX.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 401 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013 ...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-050500- /O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0004.130305T0600Z-130306T0600Z/ KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN- SCHUYLER-MASON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON... NORMAL...HAVANA 401 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING IN THE NORTH...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. * WIND...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT AROUND 30 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PATCHY BLOWING OF THE SNOW. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TOMORROW AS THE SNOWFALL BECOMES MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATCHY BLOWING OF THE SNOW WILL ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITIES...MAKING DRIVING TREACHEROUS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 401 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013 ...ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... ILZ042>057-061>063-050500- /O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0004.130305T1200Z-130306T0600Z/ LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN- SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY- CUMBERLAND-CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA... DANVILLE...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR... CHARLESTON...MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE 401 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...THE PERCIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOWFALL COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST...ENDING LAST IN THE EAST. * ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEING IN THE NORTH...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT TOMORROW AS THE SNOWFALL BECOMES MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ AUTEN

[Chicago WX]

  Hey all.  I'm new to the Midwest board.  I've been on the SE coast for the last 20 years so tracking Winter storms is new to me. Been lurking and learning all winter. I'm about 20 miles south of Warsaw Indiana.  We got surprised last week with 4.5 inches of Cement early Wed. morning.  I've noticed a lot of NAM bashing lol.  We always used the NAM for upper air forecasts, 300mb, in the tropics, it seemed to do pretty good way up high  I do have a question. 

  It would seem to me that it is unusual for a clipper type system to potentially dump this much precip. this far south, especially in the form of snow.  Is it a timing issue with the southern surface low and consequential dip in the jet?  It looks to me like the surface low to the south is coming across just in time to pump moisture north and and evacuating quickly enough to open the DOOR for the upper level feature and its associated cold air to dive south and intensify.  

  Appreciate all on the board and wishing everyone a White St. Patty's Day 

 

You pretty much have it. We like to call it a hybrid clipper. They're not as rare as you may think, but not typical...you know? Seems this set up likes to happen when there is relatively strong blocking in place. December 2010 had a couple of good examples of this set up...but of course, the cold is more "marginal" this time of year. Good luck up there...your location looks pretty good.

[Hoosier]

Been sitting on 33 for a while...Tim's worst nightmare.

[CIWeather]

Latest thinking from a local met here in Central IL.

 

 

http://www.facebook.com/informedweatherci

[steve23guy]

Hey guys, been a stalker of the forums for about 3-4 months now, finally bit the bullet and signed up. anyhow, I'm looking at all these posts, lingo is still greek to me after 6 months of reading for the most part, I'm in Cent. McHenry county about 30 Min east-southeast of Rockford Il, 

 Looking @ all your maps/models, im highly confused if my drive to work tomorrow is going to be crap at 7am, and how bad the drive home at 5 is going to be be, sigh. anyone? Beulher? 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Latest thinking from a local met here in Central IL.

InformedWeather.png

http://www.facebook.com/informedweatherci

Little bullish in Bloomington....

[CIWeather]

Little bullish in Bloomington....

 

Might be but even ILX has Bloomington getting 6.5"

[Chicago WX]

15z SREF plume snowfall totals. Usual caveats apply.

 

CMI

mean: 4.7"

high: 8.8"

low: 1.2"

 

DKB

mean: 10.3"

high: 13.3"

low: 7.3"

 

FWA

mean: 9.3"

high: 12.3"

low: 5.3"

 

IKK

mean: 8.8"

high: 11.1"

low: 6.1"

 

IND

mean: 3.9"

high: 6.7"

low: 1.2"

 

JOT

mean: 10.1"

high: 13.3"

low: 7.9"

 

LAF

mean: 6.6"

high: 10.5"

low: 3.7"

 

MIE

mean: 7.2"

high: 10.2"

low: 3.9"

 

MLI

mean: 8.5"

high: 11.6"

low: 3.7"

 

OKK

mean: 8.2"

high: 11.9"

low: 4.6"

 

ORD

mean: 10.4"

high: 14.9"

low: 6.3"

 

SBN

mean: 8.9"

high: 12.8"

low: 5.6"

 

UGN

mean: 7.2"

high: 13.9"

low: 1.3"

 

VPZ

mean: 10.6"

high: 14.7"

low: 7.5"

[Chicago WX]

Been sitting on 33 for a while...Tim's worst nightmare.

 

lol

[A-L-E-K]

UGN low down to 1.3

[CIWeather]

15z SREF plume snowfall totals. Usual caveats apply.

 

CMI

mean: 4.7"

high: 8.8"

low: 1.2"

 

DKB

mean: 10.3"

high: 13.3"

low: 7.3"

 

FWA

mean: 9.3"

high: 12.3"

low: 5.3"

 

IKK

mean: 8.8"

high: 11.1"

low: 6.1"

 

IND

mean: 3.9"

high: 6.7"

low: 1.2"

 

JOT

mean: 10.1"

high: 13.3"

low: 7.9"

 

LAF

mean: 6.6"

high: 10.5"

low: 3.7"

 

MIE

mean: 7.2"

high: 10.2"

low: 3.9"

 

MLI

mean: 8.5"

high: 11.6"

low: 3.7"

 

OKK

mean: 8.2"

high: 11.9"

low: 4.6"

 

ORD

mean: 10.4"

high: 14.9"

low: 6.3"

 

SBN

mean: 8.9"

high: 12.8"

low: 5.6"

 

UGN

mean: 7.2"

high: 13.9"

low: 1.3"

 

VPZ

mean: 10.6"

high: 14.7"

low: 7.5"

 

Is there any way you could give this for ILX and DEC? Thanks.

[Chicago WX]

Hey guys, been a stalker of the forums for about 3-4 months now, finally bit the bullet and signed up. anyhow, I'm looking at all these posts, lingo is still greek to me after 6 months of reading for the most part, I'm in Cent. McHenry county about 30 Min east-southeast of Rockford Il, 

 Looking @ all your maps/models, im highly confused if my drive to work tomorrow is going to be crap at 7am, and how bad the drive home at 5 is going to be be, sigh. anyone? Beulher? 

 

PM drive will suck. That's about as simple as I can say it.

[Geos]

UGN low down to 1.3

 

Still like my chances at 6". Enjoy watching your bank clock getting buried tomorrow! 

[A-L-E-K]

Still like my chances at 6". Enjoy watching your bank clock getting buried tomorrow! 

 

I like 4-7 across the CWA, highest far southwest and southern tip of the lake.

[Geos]

Newest   maps from WGN.

 

[Chicago WX]

Is there any way you could give this for ILX and DEC? Thanks.

 

DEC

mean: 3.7"

high: 6.8"

low: 1.0"

 

Don't have ILX, but I'll add some other central IL locations below.

 

AAA

mean: 4.8"

high: 8.4"

low: 1.8"

 

BMI

mean: 6.6"

high: 10.7"

low: 3.1"

 

PIA

mean: 6.2"

high: 11.6"

low: 3.2"

 

SPI

mean: 3.7"

high: 7.6"

low: 1.1"

 

TAZ

mean: 3.1"

high: 6.0"

low: 1.0"

[A-L-E-K]

My office is going to be open tomorrow...i get in around 6:30 or 7.  IF the heavy solutions play out, it could be a long day.

[Chicago WX]

UGN low down to 1.3

 

Wide spread for UGN.

 

I guess it's somewhat noteworthy that places like IKK, JOT, ORD, and VPZ have lesser spreads. Maybe a bit better confidence in those potential amounts. But, I like to slash them by an inch or two...based off prior history.