Indystorm Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Only 2-6 inches now in the point forecast for here at Elkhart as the cutoff is indeed sharp to the ne. If this happens this would only be one of the nickel and dimers I've had this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snow picking up here. Won't amount to anything, but bonus window dressing. Zone forecasts are interesting for those of us in the Warning in central Indiana. Can't really argue with it. Snow/sleet total accumulations, going from west to east. Warren: 2-5" Tippecanoe: 2-6" Clinton: 3-6" Carroll: 5-7" Howard: 6" Tipton: 6" Hamilton: 3-6" Madison: 3-7" Delaware: 6-7" Henry: 3-6" Randolph: 5-7" Noticed that they dropped the freezing rain mention overnight even though they are forecasting a low of 31. Precip type is tricky for sure...the warm layer may not quite get warm enough for full melting but it'll be pretty close. Wouldn't be surprised to see a mushy coating/glazing of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Noticed that they dropped the freezing rain mention overnight even though they are forecasting a low of 31. Precip type is tricky for sure...the warm layer may not quite get warm enough for full melting but it'll be pretty close. Wouldn't be surprised to see a mushy coating/glazing of ice. Mushy sleet. It's going to be tough waiting for the changeover for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Skilling's new RPM paints a slightly bigger lollipop.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Might have to start buying into the RPM. Pushing 8" for LAF. Really though, it's entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol @ massive 12" jackpot zone over the heart of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Skilling's new RPM paints a slightly bigger lollipop.. Considerably more licks to get to the center of that lollipop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 steady light snow now....mostly fine dust with about 20%mix with dime size dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New run utilizing the 16Z RAP and 12Z NAM data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 HPC maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 WGN Weather Center Blog Update: The Chicago area is bracing for what looks to be the most widespread snowstorm of the season and it will likely be the heaviest for the city proper and the southern and Indiana suburbs, areas that have escaped the major snowfalls this season. Area-wide totals are expected to fall in the 6-12 inch range with local areas getting even more. The snow is expected to develop tonight, starting lightly at first but building steadily after 4-5 am. While travel conditions should be deteriorating during the morning commute, the onset of the heaviest snow should occur in the 10am-10pm window when the bulk of the accumulation should occur. The heavy snow will fall at the rate of 1 to 2 inches an hour reducing the visibility to 1/4 mile or less with white-out conditions possible in open areas. Northeast winds will steadily increase gusting in excess of 30 mph causing the snow to blow and drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol @ massive 12" jackpot zone over the heart of the city. Even gets 12" out to here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New run utilizing the 16Z RAP and 12Z NAM data. most believable map yet based on current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol @ massive 12" jackpot zone over the heart of the city. Good thing the driveway is clear, the blower is gassed up, and the shovels are all standing by. Still can't believe that much is possible.... perhaps I am jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Since 10" is at least within the realm of possibility for Chicago, here are the 10"+ storms to occur in the month of March. It has been 43 years since the last one but as always these are just the totals for whatever the official site was at the time. March 23-24, 1897: 10.0 inches March 30-31, 1926: 12.6 inches March 25-26, 1930: 19.2 inches March 7-8, 1931: 16.2 inches March 2-3, 1954: 11.8 inches March 25-26, 1970: 14.3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Good thing the driveway is clear, the blower is gassed up, and the shovels are all standing by. Still can't believe that much is possible.... perhaps I am jaded. Anything is possible... probability of verifying is another thing all together... Going on the record for 8.4" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IWX with warnings for basically, the western 3/4 of their CWA. WWA for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOT going with warnings for the entire CWA, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DVN extended warnings south a row or two of counties. Here's their latest forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z 4km NAM. Still 8-12" for Chicago. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/62/184kmnam.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs crushes all of northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 .75 gets to city's north side-west to cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z also pretty toasty for LAF. Probably going to have to push the changeover back a couple of hours. Hopefully it has the late rally like the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL319 PM CST MON MAR 4 2013DISCUSSION315 PM CSTSHORT RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE REST OF MYCOUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING. THE LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTASTHIS AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THISFEATURE HAS LEAD TO A WEAK BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIESACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH ANDLIKELY WILL NOT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SHOW WILL GET GOINGLATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS DISAGREEMENTS ON THEEXACT TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAMSUGGESTING THAT THE SNOW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK. I DID BACKOFF ON POPS A BIT TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER ONSET...BUT STILLMENTION LIKELY POPS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.ONCE THINGS GET GOING TUESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THE SNOW INCREASEIN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.IMPRESSIVE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROGGED TO SET UP IN THE DENDRITICGROWTH ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASESAHEAD THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SYSTEM. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A TROWALLIKE STRUCTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOONAS THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN IOWA AND ACROSSCENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DECENT BAND OF MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST RIGHTACROSS THE CWA. AS IT TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...LOW STATICSTABILITY SETS UP IN THE MID LEVELS DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOOKSTO SET UP THE INGREDIENTS FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE AREADURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AT TIMES.I STILL DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS MYSOUTHERN COUNTIES INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOSUGGEST THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE SQUEEZED NORTHWARD ACROSSCENTRAL ILLINOIS TO RESULT IN SOME RAIN OR SLEET AND SNOW MIXTHROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER...STRONG DYNAMIC COOLINGASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG ASCENT...SHOULDLEAD TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SNOW TO LIQUIDRATIOS MAY ONLY BE 10:1 FOR A PERIOD FAR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THATHEAVY SNOW COULD STILL RESULT IN 6 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS THESEAREAS...AND THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE WARNING. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS JUST A TADSOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BETACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOONAND NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE WINDSCOULD GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH...RESULTING IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW. I ADDED BLOWING SNOW AREA-WIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNTFOR THIS.SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREADURING THE EVENING ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWMAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSSEASTERN ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULDDROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 06 UTC ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY SOMELAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some nice moves north for NE IL on the 18z runs. Geos feeling better no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some nice moves north for NE IL on the 18z runs. Geos feeling better no doubt. Yeah, we went from 10" down to 9" on the 18z. Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol @ massive 12" jackpot zone over the heart of the city. I'm going to trailer out to Chicago and drop my sled on Michigan Ave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 .75 gets to city's north side-west to cyclone Yep, .75" line further north compared to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z 4km NAM. Still 8-12" for Chicago. I'll take my 4-6", but I'm shaking my finger at the 6-8" to the south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, we went from 10" down to 9" on the 18z. Storm cancel. You're reading me wrong. Storm isn't changing, just more/better QPF farther north in NE IL. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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