BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z ECMWF QPF text list... LSE: MON 18Z 04-MAR -3.0 -4.7 1018 68 97 0.04 548 534 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.3 -4.3 1017 75 100 0.01 549 536 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -3.4 -6.2 1019 82 100 0.03 548 533 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -4.7 -7.6 1017 89 99 0.18 545 531 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -4.0 -9.5 1019 82 97 0.27 541 527 WED 00Z 06-MAR -4.2 -11.0 1022 84 94 0.11 544 526 MSN: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -3.0 -2.8 1018 73 86 0.01 550 536 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -4.1 -4.1 1019 78 99 0.00 550 535 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.7 -5.2 1016 80 100 0.01 547 535 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.7 -7.0 1016 85 98 0.19 544 531 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.5 -9.8 1018 85 98 0.20 543 528 WED 06Z 06-MAR -5.6 -9.3 1022 85 90 0.04 547 530 MKE: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.9 -5.8 1015 78 99 0.04 546 533 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.3 -8.7 1016 83 100 0.10 543 530 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.8 -7.0 1019 84 75 0.06 546 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -4.7 -6.8 1023 87 47 0.01 550 532 WED 18Z 06-MAR -0.1 -7.7 1026 75 55 0.01 553 532 RAC: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.6 -5.0 1015 79 99 0.06 546 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.8 -8.8 1015 83 99 0.15 543 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.3 -7.3 1018 84 78 0.07 546 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.7 -6.9 1023 87 45 0.01 550 532 WED 18Z 06-MAR -0.1 -7.4 1025 77 52 0.01 553 533 CID: MON 18Z 04-MAR -1.1 -0.5 1014 82 82 0.02 551 540 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -1.1 -2.5 1014 79 78 0.02 551 540 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.5 -2.8 1014 82 100 0.03 550 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -2.5 -4.9 1014 92 100 0.15 545 534 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -2.8 -8.4 1015 92 97 0.26 539 527 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.1 -10.1 1020 87 93 0.10 542 526 DVN: MON 18Z 04-MAR 0.1 -1.0 1016 71 87 0.06 551 539 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -0.6 -2.2 1014 74 77 0.00 552 541 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -1.0 -1.7 1014 76 92 0.01 551 539 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.2 -2.6 1013 88 99 0.10 547 537 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.2 -7.0 1013 92 99 0.30 541 531 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.0 -10.0 1017 89 97 0.25 540 527 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.6 -9.0 1023 83 88 0.04 548 530 STL: TUE 06Z 05-MAR 6.0 1.7 1009 89 52 0.04 555 547 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 4.8 1.4 1010 97 93 0.04 551 543 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.8 -5.4 1013 85 64 0.17 543 533 WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.1 -9.0 1016 53 87 0.00 535 522 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.4 -10.7 1021 73 80 0.01 547 530 PIA: MON 18Z 04-MAR 2.8 0.3 1015 64 85 0.06 553 541 TUE 00Z 05-MAR 2.1 -1.6 1013 68 69 0.01 553 543 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 1.6 -0.4 1013 67 80 0.00 552 542 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 1.3 -0.4 1011 81 97 0.02 549 540 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.5 -5.1 1011 94 100 0.19 543 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.9 -9.2 1014 92 100 0.28 538 528 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.6 -9.2 1020 84 79 0.10 546 530 RFD: MON 18Z 04-MAR -1.2 -3.4 1019 70 99 0.01 550 536 TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.8 -1.3 1017 74 94 0.01 551 538 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -2.1 -2.7 1017 76 97 0.00 551 537 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -1.4 -3.5 1014 78 100 0.01 548 537 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.4 -4.7 1013 89 100 0.19 544 533 WED 00Z 06-MAR -3.1 -9.5 1016 87 99 0.34 541 529 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.7 -8.1 1021 85 88 0.10 547 531 DKB: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.3 -0.6 1016 72 95 0.01 552 539 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -0.9 -2.2 1016 73 97 0.00 551 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -0.9 -2.7 1014 74 100 0.01 549 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.2 -3.9 1012 89 100 0.15 544 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.7 -9.1 1015 89 100 0.38 541 529 WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.4 -7.7 1019 86 93 0.13 546 531 DPA: TUE 00Z 05-MAR -2.5 -0.6 1017 70 89 0.01 552 538 TUE 06Z 05-MAR -0.3 -2.2 1017 70 97 0.00 551 538 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -0.6 -2.7 1014 70 99 0.01 549 538 TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.1 -3.4 1012 86 100 0.12 545 535 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.1 -9.0 1014 89 100 0.39 541 530 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.3 -7.9 1018 87 95 0.15 546 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -5.3 -5.6 1023 85 61 0.01 551 533 UGN: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.4 -3.9 1014 83 100 0.10 545 534 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.7 -9.1 1014 85 99 0.26 542 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.4 -7.7 1018 85 88 0.10 546 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.8 -6.5 1022 86 43 0.01 550 533 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.1 -7.1 1025 75 55 0.01 553 533 ORD: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -1.1 -3.3 1013 85 100 0.10 545 535 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.4 -9.2 1013 88 100 0.38 541 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.2 -8.1 1017 87 95 0.16 545 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.7 -5.9 1022 85 47 0.01 550 533 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.4 -6.5 1025 75 58 0.01 554 534 MDW: TUE 18Z 05-MAR -0.4 -2.8 1012 81 100 0.09 546 536 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.2 -8.7 1013 89 100 0.41 541 531 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.9 -7.7 1016 86 93 0.19 545 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.6 -6.3 1021 85 50 0.01 550 533 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.1 -6.1 1025 79 54 0.01 554 534 DEC: MON 18Z 04-MAR 5.3 1.2 1016 55 85 0.02 554 542 TUE 00Z 05-MAR 4.5 -0.7 1013 60 56 0.02 555 544 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 3.8 0.8 1012 60 78 0.01 554 544 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 2.6 0.7 1010 81 83 0.04 551 542 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.6 -3.0 1009 97 100 0.13 545 537 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.4 -8.3 1012 90 100 0.23 537 528 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.2 -9.1 1017 87 85 0.11 544 530 WED 12Z 06-MAR -4.6 -6.7 1024 81 60 0.01 552 533 VPZ: TUE 12Z 05-MAR 0.4 -1.5 1014 50 98 0.01 550 539 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.1 -1.6 1011 70 100 0.06 547 538 WED 00Z 06-MAR -1.7 -7.2 1011 91 98 0.40 541 532 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.2 -6.8 1015 87 95 0.29 544 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.7 -6.0 1020 86 43 0.01 550 534 LAF: TUE 00Z 05-MAR 2.8 0.6 1016 52 88 0.02 554 541 TUE 06Z 05-MAR 2.6 -0.2 1015 52 88 0.00 553 541 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 1.8 -0.2 1012 64 97 0.01 551 541 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.5 -0.3 1009 81 100 0.08 547 540 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.2 -5.8 1008 93 100 0.28 540 534 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.7 -7.9 1012 91 96 0.20 542 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.3 -5.8 1019 87 84 0.03 549 534 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.2 -5.1 1024 77 38 0.01 554 536 THU 00Z 07-MAR -0.5 -5.7 1026 87 33 0.01 557 536 IND: TUE 12Z 05-MAR 1.9 0.8 1012 61 96 0.03 552 542 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.7 0.9 1008 92 91 0.17 549 542 WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.0 -4.0 1005 99 99 0.18 540 536 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.3 -7.3 1010 91 97 0.26 539 532 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.4 -6.1 1017 87 88 0.11 547 534 OKK: TUE 06Z 05-MAR 1.5 -0.4 1017 58 98 0.01 553 539 TUE 12Z 05-MAR 0.7 -0.5 1014 66 93 0.01 551 540 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 1.2 0.0 1010 73 99 0.05 548 540 WED 00Z 06-MAR -0.1 -4.7 1007 89 100 0.23 542 536 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.0 -7.0 1010 91 97 0.30 541 533 WED 12Z 06-MAR -3.9 -5.1 1018 88 88 0.09 548 534 FWA: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 0.7 -1.3 1013 62 100 0.03 549 539 WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.7 -3.5 1009 79 100 0.15 543 536 WED 06Z 06-MAR -2.3 -5.5 1010 88 98 0.43 541 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -2.4 -4.4 1016 83 84 0.11 547 534 GRR: WED 06Z 06-MAR -4.6 -5.5 1016 86 41 0.01 545 533 BTL: WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.0 -6.2 1012 66 100 0.02 544 535 WED 06Z 06-MAR -3.9 -5.1 1014 82 76 0.07 544 533 TOL: WED 00Z 06-MAR -2.5 -3.3 1011 69 100 0.01 545 537 WED 06Z 06-MAR -1.6 -4.2 1010 78 98 0.11 543 535 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.8 -5.3 1014 78 69 0.05 546 534 DAY: TUE 06Z 05-MAR 0.8 -0.4 1019 58 97 0.01 554 539 TUE 12Z 05-MAR -0.5 -0.2 1016 55 88 0.00 553 541 TUE 18Z 05-MAR 3.4 0.3 1011 61 97 0.03 551 542 WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.6 -0.5 1004 92 99 0.14 545 541 WED 06Z 06-MAR -0.8 -3.7 1003 94 100 0.47 538 535 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.5 -5.1 1010 90 93 0.23 543 536 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.1 -5.6 1019 87 61 0.02 551 536 HAO: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 2.5 1.4 1010 82 96 0.12 551 543 WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.8 0.4 1003 95 100 0.19 544 541 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.2 -4.6 1003 95 100 0.45 537 534 WED 12Z 06-MAR -1.5 -5.7 1010 87 94 0.17 543 535 WED 18Z 06-MAR 0.5 -5.5 1019 80 67 0.02 552 537 CMH: TUE 18Z 05-MAR 4.4 -0.5 1013 51 98 0.01 552 541 WED 00Z 06-MAR 2.8 -0.3 1005 68 99 0.03 547 542 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.9 -2.1 1001 96 100 0.45 539 539 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.0 -4.7 1007 94 64 0.31 541 536 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.1 -6.0 1016 76 69 0.02 550 537 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.2 -5.9 1021 87 75 0.01 552 535 CLE: WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.1 -2.6 1007 76 99 0.03 544 538 WED 12Z 06-MAR -0.2 -5.4 1012 89 97 0.15 544 535 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.1 -4.7 1018 76 74 0.03 549 535 Can you please add detroit for, stebo.. not even enough qpf at milwaukee to combat the sun angle. mke office should put DAB in the forecast to lighten up their bust. 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Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Torching here at 36º...but dry with a dewpoint of 20º. Some 30+ DBZ returns about to enter the county, so we'll see if it can spit anything out...though it may miss south of MBY. Torch is relative of course, as that's still well below normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here is your latest Microwave forecast...I mean microcast... Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DBQ: 8.0" FWA: 6.5" IKK: 6.3" IND: 2.5" LAF: 2.8" LSE: 8.6" MDW: 7.5" MIE: 4.5" MKE: 2.2" MLI: 6.5" MSN: 5.0" OKK: 4.0" ORD: 6.9" RFD: 6.7" SBN: 7.5" UGN: 5.5" solid numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can you please add detroit for, stebo.. not even enough qpf at milwaukee to combat the sun angle. mke office should put DAB in the forecast to lighten up their bust. What is DTW looking at 0.01" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 TimChgo was right!!! Yeah! See!..... I'm a porognosticitator.... yeah... that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LAF's finest TV weatherman has 3.1" for here. So...we're on the same page. He's also calling for wind gusts to 43 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 U of IL WRF ensemble says Alek's bank clock is getting buried. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/692/alekwinning.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Light snow underway in Madison, very small snowflakes, probably won't amount to anything until later. GFS has really backed off on precip totals. MKX's graphic as of early this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its going to be hard to justify mke even putting an advisory out now for some areas.. They would and do so much better when they operate like LOT and maybe have to play catch up at worst.. Maybe this bust will finally sink in that's its ok to milk it and not just go all in early especially when dr no is not on board with the american junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 U of IL WRF ensemble says Alek's bank clock is getting buried. given trajetories of the band to the west, it appears to hitting the LE pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What Skilling was showing a bit ago. Simulation is for 12 noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its going to be hard to justify mke even putting an advisory out now for some areas.. They would and do so much better when they operate like LOT and maybe have to play catch up at worst.. Maybe this bust will finally sink in that's its ok to milk it and not just go all in early especially when dr no is not on board with the american junk. Yeah, they have been burned badly several times this winter by laying out watches well ahead of the storm, only to watch it blow up in their faces. The fact that you cant have any model latch onto a solution outside of 24 hours or so is an embarassment as well, so it is not all MKE's fault, but understand the models and be prepared for the variability. Accidental test tornado warnings dont particularily help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RPM never disappoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol at RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Update 3/4/13http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/03/new-week-new-storm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM and it extended family, the SREF, were pretty damn bad with this one...initially anyway. 15z run has backed QPF even farther west and south, compared to the 9z run. Trimmed a lot of WI (from MSN east and north) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, they have been burned badly several times this winter by laying out watches well ahead of the storm, only to watch it blow up in their faces. The fact that you cant have any model latch onto a solution outside of 24 hours or so is an embarassment as well, so it is not all MKE's fault, but understand the models and be prepared for the variability. Accidental test tornado warnings dont particularily help either. I was going more on past history. I don't remember any burns this winter as there has been nothing until feb to get burned by. last storm they did fine and supported them fully going with a watch with the euro and NAM close... with nothing on board with the NAM in this one especially the euro they went back to an old bad habit of going all in too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IND upgrading to a Warning for the LAF-MIE-OKK areas. 5-7" sleet/snow. Bullish. Great AFD from them. A must read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IND upgrading to a Warning for LAF-MIE-OKK. 5-7" sleet/snow. Bullish. all that (justified) melting down for nothing lol... congrats dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 still waiting for the 10" plus it owes me from the last storm BTW.. He commented how well it did catching the Geos storm last Thursday. So Tom is obviously not reading the board regarding posting that models snowfall numbers and some questioning that posting that model is irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What Skilling was showing a bit ago. Simulation is for 12 noon. It's good to be able to shave those numbers in half and still have 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I was going more on past history. I don't remember any burns this winter as there has been nothing until feb to get burned by. last storm they did fine and supported them fully going with a watch with the euro and NAM close... with nothing on board with the NAM in this one especially the euro they went back to an old bad habit of going all in too early. The last storm they had a watch, downgraded most of the area and then had to put up warnings as the event was happening. Everything was a tad north in the end. Sheboygan County was never forecasted to get those warning criteria snows. - that was the big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 all that melting down for nothing lol... congrats dude! Only looks good on paper right now. I still think it's going to be very touch and go for here. We'll hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RPM never disappoints. full on chicago style weenie model...extra sport peppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The last storm they had a watch, downgraded most of the area and then had to put up warnings as the event was happening. Everything was a tad north in the end. Sheboygan County was never forecasted to get those warning criteria snows. - that was the big surprise. why did they ever go to an advisory only anyways? last storm was easy as pie to see north side of chicago all the way up the lake was in for good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IND upgrading to a Warning for the LAF-MIE-OKK areas. 5-7" sleet/snow. Bullish. Great AFD from them. A must read. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very nice. Good luck Jim. Hope it breaks right for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IND upgrading to a Warning for the LAF-MIE-OKK areas. 5-7" sleet/snow. Bullish. Great AFD from them. A must read. Meteorologically packed you could say. I don't know...still kinda want to err on the lower end unless we change to snow quicker or have no problem sticking initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I keep telling myself that "all this has to do, is be 35 miles further north and Battle Creek will receive snow." We are LITERALLY, RIGHT ON THE LINE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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