New stupid feature of TWC "Local on the Eights'

[Ed Lizard]

I can see on the ECMWF why TWC might think a week from today the HOU area will see severe weather.  But it is a week away, SPC doesn't have us highlighted.

 

 

But TWC's local on the 8's has my zip code marked for severe weather possible in a week, with the computer spliced voice of Jim Cantore announcing it.

 

 

Just based on the modeling, at such a long range, I think it is stupid to be announcing the possibility of severe weather.  I think replacing better NWS forecasts a few years back was a step backwards.

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 AM CST SUN MAR 03 2013
  
   VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
   LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
   TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE LATTER PART OF
   THE WEEK.  ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS REGARDING THE EJECTION OF A
   STRONG SPEED MAX INTO THE SRN PLAINS OF OK/TX BY SUNDAY WHEREAS THE
   GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE.  WITH
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INITIALLY EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL...TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM WILL
   ESPECIALLY LIMIT THE PREDICTABILITY OF ROBUST CONVECTION THIS
   PERIOD.
  
   ..DARROW.. 03/03/2013

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

The Euro trough is neutral to slightly positively tilted, which generally has led to unfavorable capping this Winter.  Not the worst thing in the world, but still stupid.

 

 

 

Mar 10

73^°

53^°

Scattered T-Storms

potential for severe thunderstorms

 

[Teru Teru Bozu]

Oh jeez. It's one thing for us weenies to look at the models for a week out and hope that that dream storm actually materializes, it's another thing to go on a major news outlet and start hyping up not just precip chances, but actual severe weather potential that far out.

 

What baffles me is that a couple of years ago, when unfortunately a lot of people died due to severe weather in the U.S., there were more than a few observers who questioned whether the high death tolls were due at least in part to complacency caused by overwarning/"cry wolf" issues. Well, I don't see how this helps with that problem. Obviously not every severe event forecast by the models is going to verify by the time you get to Day 1, and it probably wouldn't take too many of these long-range "busts" to make most of the general public ignore outlooks like that altogether. 

[weatherwiz]

I don't think there is anything wrong with highlighting potential or awareness several days in advance, it's just you have to choose your wording carefully.  We have reached a point now where we know several days in advance where a threat for severe weather may exist and how potent the event can be.  The forecaster, just has to choose his words carefully...you want to just let the public know what potential exists and raise their awareness...you don't want to scare the crap out of them.

[JoMo]

I don't think there is anything wrong with highlighting potential or awareness several days in advance, it's just you have to choose your wording carefully.  We have reached a point now where we know several days in advance where a threat for severe weather may exist and how potent the event can be.  The forecaster, just has to choose his words carefully...you want to just let the public know what potential exists and raise their awareness...you don't want to scare the crap out of them.

 

That's the issue. It has to be pretty much certainty otherwise you will get the 'crying wolf' syndrome if you do it enough and nothing happens.

[weatherwiz]

That's the issue. It has to be pretty much certainty otherwise you will get the 'crying wolf' syndrome if you do it enough and nothing happens.

 

We will never be able to avoid that issue.  There will always be people who use the "crying wolf" syndrome and then people who say they didn't have enough warning or didn't know.  

 

The best thing you can just do is alert people and do the best you can do to prepare them.  If people take what is said out of context (which happens quite often) that's their issue.  

[Teru Teru Bozu]

I guess part of my skepticism comes from severe weather outbreaks generally requiring no more than "day of" or "day before" concern for most people - they're not like hurricanes where you need to watch the track for days ahead of time and possibly evacuate people in the path or whatnot. And tropical systems are often simpler to track to begin with - unless you get a longer-duration severe weather outbreak that progresses across the country for several days (like April 14-16, 2011), getting a handle on just how a system will evolve and which areas will be most prime for severe weather is many times tough beyond 2-3 days out. My personal feeling is that the SPC's standard of Day 3 (i.e., two days into the future) being basically the cutoff for the more detailed severe weather outlooks is about right. And more and more local mets ARE working the SPC outlook products into their forecasts, so there is information getting out to the public beyond just watches and warnings (of course, some people are uncomfortable with the SPC outlooks being used this way, too. It's complicated.)

[Ed Lizard]

The Euro from 9 days ago was spot on for showing severe weather farther North in Texas, but as mentioned, with a positive tilt trough this year, the odds of severe in SETX tomorrow was low, and the modelling is pretty unanimous (US global and meso, Euro) now on a capped atmosphere, and a thin line, weakening as nocturnal jet fades but only a few hours past diurnal min temps, with about a quarter inch, give or take a tenth.

 

Houston may not even see thunder.  Even if we had severe tomorrow, who needs a week's warning?  It doesn't improve safety.  At all.  As suggested above, a hurricane approaching the Gulf with mention from local NWS AFD "bears watch" and TV mets talking, gets people to start picking stuff up before the mass panic of a hurricane watch causes (the mass panic to top off the gas tanks in the cars can't always be avoided by a commuter) bedlam and fear, the DC snowstorm version of bread and eggs and milk.

[amc]

Do humans even build the local on the 8s? It would make sense for a dumb computer to be over-reactive to that sort of thing.

[Ed Lizard]

Do humans even build the local on the 8s? It would make sense for a dumb computer to be over-reactive to that sort of thing.

 

Humans program it.  In the early 1980s, somehow the technology was already available for scheduled text ( as if lookin at a 1980s version Wang computer) NWS forecast.  For my home town.  Someone chose to switch TWC forecasts a few years back from NWS zone forecasts.  Someone added graphics, and later someone developed the ability to take a digital library of Jim Cantore saying single words or short phrases and merge them so it sounds like Jim Cantore is your local weatherman, not for your TV viewing area, no getting NYC area forecast in Bethpage, but Jim Cantore apparently reading the forecast for Bethpage.

 

And the 'severe weather is possible in your area' feature was added by someone modifying code.

 

TWC has had the ability for 15 years or more to scroll tornado or other local warnings on your screen if one lived in a warned county, and stories about people taking shelter.

[thunderman]

TWC has had the ability for 15 years or more to scroll tornado or other local warnings on your screen if one lived in a warned county, and stories about people taking shelter.

 

I do not watch them much during severe weather, but have they fixed the location issue with these?  I remember I used to see warnings for 45 minutes away in Winchester b/c that's where my local cable company office was.

[Ed Lizard]

I do not watch them much during severe weather, but have they fixed the location issue with these?  I remember I used to see warnings for 45 minutes away in Winchester b/c that's where my local cable company office was.

That, I don't know...

 

But warnings used to be county wide, NWS warnings for portions of a county are last 5 years of so, *I think*. 

[thunderman]

That, I don't know...

 

But warnings used to be county wide, NWS warnings for portions of a county are last 5 years of so, *I think*. 

 

Yeah when this was happening it was late 90s/early 2000s?  Wow, that was a while ago now that I think about it haha.

[roardog]

I do not watch them much during severe weather, but have they fixed the location issue with these?  I remember I used to see warnings for 45 minutes away in Winchester b/c that's where my local cable company office was.

It's the same thing here. The cable company office is in a different county, so all watches/warnings on the local forecast is from that county with the exception of severe t-storm and tornado warnings. With those, they'll show them for three counties, which apparently are the counties that this particular cable office serves? So, if there's a flood watch in my county but not the county of the cable office, it won't show on the local forecast.

[Srain]

Maybe not Houston proper, but in the WFO responsible for issuing the warning...

 

 

TORNADO WARNING
TXC373-407-101300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0005.130310T1237Z-130310T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
737 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 735 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LIVINGSTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON AND GOODRICH.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
829 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW GOODRICH           30.65N  94.99W
03/10/2013  M77 MPH          POLK               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRINITY RIVER AUTHORITY MEASURED WIND GUST OF 77 MPH ON
            LAKE LIVINGSTON DAM
 

[Ed Lizard]

^^ SPC issued 4-8 day outlooks, based on a certain probability for those dates of any form of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.  I believe it is 30%, the bar set high because of the built in uncertainty of a 4-8 day forecast.

 

If TWC included wording that said we were in an SPC 4-8 day risk area, I would not complain.  On Day 8, we were in a TWC worthy of local on the eights Jim Cantore's voice "severe weather is possible for your area" and SPC didn't think we met the criteria, and the same as HGX forecasts my local weather better than TWC does (that changed 2 0r 4 years ago) I trust longer range forecasting to the SPC.  Edit to add, HGX didn't stop being better than TWC for my forecast, TWC changed from NWS zone forecasts to TWC forecasts.

 

A radar indicated tornado warning at the edge of our (HGX) CWA does not "verify" an essentially failed Day 8 forecast.  I knew on Day 8 from trough orientation forecasts that today would probably play out exactly as it did in Harris County. 

 

 

 

ETA You (best local weather forum admin ever) know from KHOU-TV 11 forum if Day 8 Euro "looks" good for local severe I will post it, and if it is next month (an April 5th event) I will start a new thread for April to trumpet it like a swan.  Not predicting *nothing* for April 5th, BTW.  The free Euro 850 mb winds, surface isobars and 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps allow me a "quick look" nothing else needed that severe weather *may* be possible in our area depending on other factors.

[Ed Lizard]

Joe Bastardi has a quick look for severe, wet bulb above a certain number, surface pressure forecast for an area below a pressure ( 1008 mb?  1004?  I don't remember), and being essentially North of the Red River (capping can ruin his quick looks in Texas) and it works for him.  I simply found a quick look not put into rules, exactly, but 500 mb trough of neutral or negative tilt,  which will usually be accompanies by not *too* warm 850 mb temps (which are sort of seasonal, 20C 850 mb temps aren't a death sentence in June, they are in late February) if the trough orientation is right, hopefully with somewhat divergent mid level heights, and surface winds not from the SW, crossing of flow, and 850 mb wind speeds in color, ie, 15 meters/second or about 30 knots, the green better than yellow, dark green (50 o or 60 knots) better than lighter green.

 

 

It can fail, on its own, but it tells me to look at other things, that if there, I am excited 8 days in advance *if* the day 8 or day 4 or whatever Euro is correct.  0Z a little more spatially accurate usually than 12Z.