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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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We have already had a EURO blizzard....now maybe a GFS blizzard lol

 

 

A GFS solution is a real pasty snow - it's harder to verify blizzards with larger aggregates that are glued together by 32F isotherms.   Even with wind blowing it around, it will be harder to verify a blizzard in the non-hyperbolic terminology of this when we don't have the "saw dust" dryness to work with.   

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A GFS solution is a real pasty snow - it's harder to verify blizzards with larger aggregates that are glued together by 32F isotherms.   Even with wind blowing it around, it will be harder to verify a blizzard in the no hyperbolic terminology of this when we don't have the "saw dust" dryness to work with.   

You read too much into it...I just meant monster storm.

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I think EURO will be a crush job.

 

Like I said last night/yesterday it's not an incremental thing.  The Euro was too slow with the ULL, missed the feature up here which lowers heights (which allows for the faster movement) and was slow to slide the northern energy SW.  It's a tipping scale and eventually it hits the point where the low just jumps a huge amount NW because everything is better aligned, that should be this run.

 

Again more in agreement with the euro ensembles.

 

I don't expect the Euro will be terribly different from the NAM/CMC/UK, the GFS is probably overdone.

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You read too much into it...I just meant monster storm.

 

Personally I don't really care much for blizzard verification. Wind can be fun and all, but ultimately I find larger flakes and more evenly distributed amounts more enjoyable.

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That would be a MASSIVE shift in just 12 hours.

 

Well, it doesn't need to take baby steps.  If it's capturing that pivot like the others, it should just take the giant step.  I'm inclined to think that it's new sampling will have ingested whatever was missing before and NW it will come. 

 

Still anticipate that WNE will be sitting on the fringes.  But I'd be pretty excited if I were east of the CT river.

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Not really sure what the Euro will show and nobody else is either.

 

I'll bet you $50 the bowling ball to oblivion is gone this run because that was silly to begin with...that brings it into the fold of the other models.  Beyond that I am not sold on the blizzard the GFS has, Euro likely backs the non-gfs consensus.  Only way I see it coming in as amped is if this really is the next great blizzard and the GFS has had a total coup, but that goes without saying.   

 

To me this has played out very similar to the seasonal pattern.

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Speaking solely for our backyards, the GFS being overdone is probably a good thing wrt the mixing line. A compromise is still a huge hit.

 

Speaking of my area, I hope it rains.  A damaging snowstorm for my area is not what I need now, travel plans late week.  This is shaping up to be a freaking nightmare for me, this will surely put a huge dent in air travel on the east coast.  I say that only because this is one of those times I'm actually hoping things go wet vs white here so in now way do my comments re the GFS being too amped play into a desire for snow :)

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Come one, throw out a useful guess just like 20 others will.

 

It's 54-72 hours out, at some point people need to kind of make a call here vs waiting for the models to totally agree, JMHO.

 

I feel like everyone is waiting for the Euro when it's probably a foregone conclusion that it's going to cave substantially.

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