Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Watch this keep trending north and verify as a big storm for NS while we get rain Come on Dave, you should know that this is impossible given the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Beaches get demolished too. They already are vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Watch this keep trending north and verify as a big storm for NS while we get rain I dunno... Isn't there a real limit as to how far this thing can come north due to blocking and confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow at the GFS... Verbatim, probably a warning event for the entire state of CT/RI/MA/NH and much of Maine and Vermont... Looks like it's cold enough for all snow down here, might have some trouble accumulating, but it looks like everything except the immediate surface is OK for down here. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. I almost feel like at this point the EURO has to come north, if it dosen't, this might be one of the largest differences between the GFS and EURO ever at this time... I'm giving the EURO 12z to catch on, and the GFS 18z to back off. If after 18z they don't have some sort of remote agreement, than it's all out chaos, and I almost feel like mets start having to pay attention to the GFS, because on the chance that it's right, and a blizzard comes in unforecasted, that could be a major problem. With something of this magnitude possible, the people have to be aware..... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 April fools was snow to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well...it's tempting to say this would be the last hurrah of the winter but ...heh, the tele's are flagging -EPO/-NAO right out through the end of week 2! This is true from both the Euro and GFS camps. This could extend bowling season - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 April fools was snow to the end. Oh, that was even powder up in Lowell at max dynamic. I mean it really flipped the thickness' over in that one - a unique sort of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nav gem looks a lot like the euro, ggem north but warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Come on Dave, you should know that this is impossible given the block. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 double yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM took a big step towards GFS, the models are now starting to the show the ULL pinwheeling...How far N does the low get before it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think we can safely put the operational Euro in the trash bucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this is killing me waiting for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To amend, the only time the correction didn't occur or that the GFS wasn't amped enough was the huge blizzard. I still view this as more of a hit vs miss scenario pending the euro/ggem vs historic vs epic....which to me means we discount the GFS and shift things SE until the other models collectively blink. GFS was too far SE in 12/29 coastal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Frozen ground and snowcover around here will help to support snow accumulations, the sun angle sucks though. Today's conditions make a snow storm seem reasonable--very winterlike 28.3/20 with strong NW winds. Just went out to get some wood--a bit nippy to be sure. once you get to maine's longitude, the difference in precip cutoffs between the gfs and euro increases to 700 miles Just a minor difference. Sun angle is not an issue at this lat until the latter portion of the month. I don't buy that, Ray. It all depends on the other conditions at play. As I said in a post yesterday, at this time of year the angle is prohibive of big snow events (Oct '11 and April Fool's storm huge examples of that), but it certainly can and does inhibit accumulations that would not be the case in Dec-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hard to believe this is happening but with the GGEM now a condo collapser maybe its real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS was too far SE in 12/29 coastal as well. I forget that one because I wasn't here was up north. Seems like in the really big events it's not amped enough, based on all the other guidance right now we still have more of a SNE system right now...so my thought is until proven otherwise assume the OP GFS is too amped. GGEM/UK/NAM and presumably a 12z Euro compromise would be the way to go if the GFS is far NW. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 April fools was snow to the end. Started as rain, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Again... should the GFS go on to prove more right than wrong, there most likely will not be any given cycle where all the models just 100% concede. They'll fight while slowly capitulating across a few cycles. I think this GGEM and UKMET ...sort of elucidate that. If the Euro comes N this is a huge red flag imo - Also, looking at this more detailed: This type of synopsis with the oper. GFS is very "shadow" appealed. Some interior N-S oriented valleys may get some meso boning - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets rehash all the sun angle arguments: 1. It has a major effect in March if the precipitation rate is light and cloud decks are thin. 2. It has almost no effect when 1/4 +SN is falling and fairly minor even with 1/2 SN falling. 3. There is still almost 13 hours of darkness at this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Today's conditions make a snow storm seem reasonable--very winterlike 28.3/20 with strong NW winds. Just went out to get some wood--a bit nippy to be sure. Just a minor difference. I don't buy that, Ray. It all depends on the other conditions at play. As I said in a post yesterday, at this time of year the angle is prohibive of big snow events (Oct '11 and April Fool's storm huge examples of that), but it certainly can and does inhibit accumulations that would not be the case in Dec-Jan. Sure....during very light rates of fall, but in any event worthy of mention, it will not....perhaps a bit on asphalt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets rehash all the sun angle arguments: 1. It has a major effect in March if the precipitation rate is light and cloud decks are thin. 2. It has almost no effect when 1/4 +SN is falling and fairly minor even with 1/2 SN falling. 3. There is still almost 13 hours of darkness at this time of the year. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 0z Euro is very similar to the 12z NavGem. I'm sure that lends confidence. GEFS still a pummeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's coming closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lets rehash all the sun angle arguments: 1. It has a major effect in March if the precipitation rate is light and cloud decks are thin. 2. It has almost no effect when 1/4 +SN is falling and fairly minor even with 1/2 SN falling. 3. There is still almost 13 hours of darkness at this time of the year. Even simpler, this is not April, it March, before the Equinox - yes it's factorable, but scaling exercise would show that it is among the smaller factors on Mar 4. April 4, much bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Started as rain, though... Oh yeah, just that when it shut off, it w's weenies falling to te end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We have already had a EURO blizzard....now maybe a GFS blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sure....during very light rates of fall, but in any event worthy of mention, it will not....perhaps a bit on asphalt. BTW--my comment was supposed to read "not prohibitive" but it "is inhibitive". Suffice to say, it's not an issue with what the GFS is spewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.