dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Forky, the damage is done by then. hvy hvy damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm mobile, but is that all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am a bit confused here, is this a storm snow for Northern Connecticut or not? Local mets last night had nothing. The ULL is hanging around like an unwanted house guest, wouldn't that push this storm out to sea south of here? Not watching me?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Forky, the damage is done by then. i know, i'm just pointing out the wild differences between the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Maybe GC can score a couple inches, too when all is said and done. Still thinking the result will be between perhasp an even more NW gfs solution and where the EC is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For I-95 westward it looks like it is. BOS may flip as its lightening up after 78 hours, though then it goes back to light snow after 96 hours. Its close for them. This is a Thursday-Friday deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just wow. I knew I felt uneasy with the ensembles...might have to eat crow. Glad I've switched over to the short term and don't have to make any calls on this. One of these models is going to eat it big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm sure it will..whether it actually does so in a significant enough fashion to start making us believe a major storm is coming is another question. That retro-phase of the energy has definitely been the main key. I remember texting Scooter the othernight wondering if we could pull off a March 2001 with the retrophase only everything is shifted well south since the block was well south. Seriously .. there are large scale structural difference playing out in time. The fervor is too intense for people to slow down and take in posts ... but I have been posting what those are and why the GFS is keying in on a solution like this. 1 The trough axis is slowly being rotated into a more negative orientation prior to leaving the MA Coast at mid levels. Every degree around the dial it gets corrected, the further west the solution must evolve out in time because that's just physics. 2 Every single isopleth at 500mb out in the Atlantic is being repositioned west / n/w of of prior runs. This is consistent with the argument I made yesterday about the flow being too stretched out in the Euro solution. The ridge L/W length was too vast for a blocked regime, which favors shorter L/W lengths. These runs may simply be correcting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is a Thursday-Friday deal?Wed pm into Fri morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I read this thread then looked at the runs, you guys looking at the same NAM? Not relevant but it slams eastern sections, GFS is just sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i know, i'm just pointing out the wild differences between the gfs and euro Except it comes off as more just needling at the hopes for the sweetest solution up here, especially since you don't actually reference the Euro in your alleged comparison with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is a pretty sweet sounding You're damn right it is, 55 kts right off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Glad I've switched over to the short term and don't have to make any calls on this. One of these models is going to eat it big time. lol, One of these 2 models will be a major bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You're damn right it is, 55 kts right off the deck. The column is 100% saturated all the way up to the EL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Except it comes off as more just needling at the hopes for the sweetest solution up here, especially since you don't actually reference the Euro in your alleged comparison with it. it's pretty close to the best possible solution for this area, too... it would help if the euro does more than a 20 mile shift n this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is a Thursday-Friday deal? wednesday-thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For I-95 westward it looks like it is. BOS may flip as its lightening up after 78 hours, though then it goes back to light snow after 96 hours. Its close for them.I just looked. I don't know what To think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So much for productivity today. Amazing how persistent the GFS has been. Who knows? A broken clock is right twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would expect the GGEM to head north based on the RGEM, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just looked. I don't know what I think lol. IF the euro makes a big shift, it's party time, and the tv met scramble begins lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not watching me?????? Sorry I didn't last night, I watched channel 6 at 10:30 and they had flurries. I went to bed shortly thereafter. I do like your forecasting and your blog as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 it's pretty close to the best possible solution for this area, too... it would help if the euro does more than a 20 mile shift n this run I'm not buying what the GFS or even SREF's are selling without at least a two-run stretch by the Euro showing something at least resembling it. Right now the consensus with weight to the more reliable model in the last few weeks points to more of a glancing blow; more impact than depicted verbatim on the 00z Euro but substantially less than the GFS has shown over its past three or four runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 IF the euro makes a big shift, it's party time, and the tv met scramble begins lol. Even if this comes south from the 12z gfs run, that's still a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Ukie making a big jump at 12z here definitely has me feeling a bit sheepish toward the Euro...the possibility that the Euro may get schooled by the GFS is definitely increasing in my book. But still way too early to be spiking footballs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Ukie making a big jump at 12z here definitely has me feeling a bit sheepish toward the Euro...the possibility that the Euro may get schooled by the GFS is definitely increasing in my book. But still way too early to be spiking footballs. What time does the gem come out 1130? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I just looked. I don't know what To think lol. If you're JUST interpreting the GFS on its 12z run, I'd say that the majority of the storm is snow with some rain possibly working in once the bulk of QPF has fallen in frozen form, but even that shifts back (if the shift does indeed occur; BOS would be borderline at worst, I think, from what I saw). But this is a fantasy run and it is not to be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Ukie making a big jump at 12z here definitely has me feeling a bit sheepish toward the Euro...the possibility that the Euro may get schooled by the GFS is definitely increasing in my book. But still way too early to be spiking footballs. Yeah, we've seen busts at 24h on the models so it's still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would expect the GGEM to head north based on the RGEM, but we'll see. GGEM is often last to the party but we'll see. The RGEM started to make the big shifts at 6z, so like you I expect the GGEM to dump the Euro bowling ball to the middle of the ocean. Euro should come much more north, towards at least it's ensembles. Normally if we were expecting a hit and the Euro ENS were NW of the Op we'd have been hearing non-stop about red flags. Not sure why that was different this time, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This would be a historic failure by the Euro....and a historic coup by the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just friggn insane... This is getting very interesting. Lets hope this is the GFS's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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