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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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a general .75"-1.25" qpf for all of SNE, except fo 1.5-2.5" for extreme eastern areas.. winds look like a big problem as well as Long Island Sound flooding.. as with Sandy a storm (this one stalling) to the ESE of Long Island would be horrible news... BUT what does this all mean with the EURO still showing partly cloudy skies??

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I gotta say....GFS may have pulled a coup with unc coming on board. Crazy!

 

 

Nothing's verified yet of course ... just sayin', THAT many GFS members being nearly identical and persisting across more than a mere cycle was/is telling in my mind.  

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I hope the GFS is right and scores a big coup over the Euro.

 

Me too Randy, I assume it's really good for you guys too?

If only because I like the idea that even in 2013 we can never be too reliant on any one model.   I have no doubt the Euro comes north this run, but we also can't ignore (up here) that the GFS has almost always been overdone in these situations right about now.  (aside of the last blizzard where it was underdone, lol)

 

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I would love to see the euro jump north today

 

I'm sure it will..whether it actually does so in a significant enough fashion to start making us believe a major storm is coming is another question.

That retro-phase of the energy has definitely been the main key. I remember texting Scooter the othernight wondering if we could pull off a March 2001 with the retrophase only everything is shifted well south since the block was well south.

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This overnight MDD excerpt from NCEP seems funny right now...

 

 

...THE 00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN ARE THEDEEPEST/FURTHEST N SOLNS WHILE THE UKMET SUITE OF SOLNS STILLREMAINS TOO QUICK. EVEN THE ENS MEANS START TO DIVERGE BY LATE WEDAS THE ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC. ESSENTIALLY THE 00ZGEFS MEAN/21Z SREF MEAN ARE ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS WHILETHE 12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE S. GIVEN MOST OFTHE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN FAVORING A LOWER LATITUDE SOLN...PERTHE 00Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF AND 12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN...WILL FAVOR A 2/3WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF VS. THE GFS. OF NOTE...THE 00Z ECMWF ISSLGTLY AHEAD OF ITS FORMER RUN BUT IS ACTUALLY PROFOUNDLY FASTERTHAN 24 HRS AGO.
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Just wow. I knew I felt uneasy with the ensembles...might have to eat crow.

 

Don't get sucked in just yet. Wait for at least a majority if not across the board consistency. Also, temp profiles look just a touch warm halfway through (what a duration, tho).

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GFS still going balls to the wall eh? Not only that, seems to be trending towards and even bigger hit the last couple runs. Big Euro run today...can the GFS pull the upset of the winter?

 

I'm gonna just put this out there: nope.

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