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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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One detail that has gone completely under the radar is that the last 3 cycles of the oper. GFS has rotated the entire trough axis slightly more negative in orientation per time intervals.   This is not likely being noticed because it is natural to want to focus on the core of the quasi-closed feature. 

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i hate you guys!!

lol. but seriously, the leftover energy sitting over top of NY grabs the ULL as it heads to the BM, and pulls it back west. Hence, the qpf bomb. Id be careful with such an extreme outlier solution, but hope it works out for ou guys.

Just comical differnces between the models

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One detail that has gone completely under the radar is that the last 3 cycles of the oper. GFS has rotated the entire trough axis slightly more negative in orientation per time intervals.   This is not likely being noticed because it is natural to want to focus on the core of the quasi-closed feature. 

 

Wasn't lost on me Tip, nor the fact that the Euro was coming around to that idea too it was just too slow in the south, and totally missed the spin coming across New England.  It'll correct this run I'm sure. 

 

Crazy Uncle starting to bite now too

 

 

 130304154951985151000.gif

 

 

Euro f'd the duck on this one I'm willing to bet anyone on that now.

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That's it - that's the missing component in the "why" category.  The GFS is rotating this trough more negative per each cycle, and every time it rotates a small dial, the end result has to correct further west - it's just physics.  

 

The question is, why aren't the other runs doing that - 

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All of SNE crushed lol. We toss

 

It's kind of funny though that you were saying throughout the weekend (I think you were) that climatology would have this coming north.  But, in spite of your overall sentiments, you were (continue to?)  dismiss the one model that's supporting what you claimed would happen and embracing the ones that keep it south.

 

GFS might cancel my flight out of BDL Thursday morning (and the planes arrival Wednesday night).  I wonder what it would do to my clients' flights out of EWR Thursday morning.  Funny if they make it to CID and I'm sitting at home.

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I would love to see the euro jump north today

 

I don't think I could stomach another torrent of calls, e-mails, and desk visits from coworkers who know me as "the weather guy" at my office if the Euro even trends close to this and the mass media hype machine begins.

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