March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II

[Damage In Tolland]

That map is a joke dude, 12-18 south of martha's vineyard LOL LOL LOL LOL come on.

Its the Euro snowfall map.

[Damage In Tolland]

I have for you - The Single Worst Forecast of the Season. One of the worst All-Time. It's one thing to hug a trend....but it's another thing to hug a model....it's ANOTHER thing to hug the Worst Model that no one believes, and it's even WORST to hug the Worst Model, when it's the Most of something (in this case most NW and most Warm).

But it's Entirely another thing, when your map is even MORE NW and Warm than the Most NW and Warm model, especially when it's the NAM!

Worst Forecast Ever, Mark Searles.png

Lol who are those buffoons?

[dendrite]

Let's cut out the banter in this thread.

[dendrite]

I have for you - The Single Worst Forecast of the Season.  One of the worst All-Time.  It's one thing to hug a trend....but it's another thing to hug a model....it's ANOTHER thing to hug the Worst Model that no one believes, and it's even WORST to hug the Worst Model, when it's the Most of something (in this case most NW and most Warm).  

 

But it's Entirely another thing, when your map is even MORE NW and Warm than the Most NW and Warm model, especially when it's the NAM!  

 

Worst Forecast Ever, Mark Searles.png

Let's bash forecasts come verification time...not 72hrs out.

[ORH_wxman]

Let's cut out the banter in this thread.

 

 

We should probably have someone start a storm-specific banter thread at this point now that it looks like at east some moderate impact will occur for a chunk of the region.

[educate]

well, yes.   I said "if so" to prevent a post like this.      I get there is a potential impact that needs to be conveyed, however I don't think that we need to go overboard in the media,  especially since we've got a few more days.   A "worth watching" advertisement is plenty enough. jmo

Agreed. and if this potential was not as huge as it is, then ok. but to say there might be a few slushy inches when this might literally close down a major city if it verified....c'mon. Anyway, we will soon see. must admit, it is a hell of a lot better tracking this than watching squirrels look under a melting snowpack for lost nuts.

[SouthCoastMA]

Let's bash forecasts come verification time...not 72hrs out.

I don't think it us that far fetched anyway.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I dunno. I'm fine with waiting for the Euro tonight. Start honking tomorrow AM and people have all day to prepare and really the "worst" of any storm wouldn't be until Wednesday night and Thursday.  It's not like the very worst moves in for the AM commute on Wednesday. 

 

 

 

I know. It's hard to get too amped up yet but I'm more the 50% confident we'll get something "decent" here in CT. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will magnify the impact of even a glancing blow. 

 

You haven't been to a market basket recently. There isn't enough checkout aisles and bags of bread in all of New England to weather the coming onslaught if weathermen suddenly go from "snow showers in the foothills" to 6-12" of power knocking out snow.

 

Whatever the Euro people are charging it isn't enough.  Apparently they can paralyze the entire weather community by demanding much higher rates and pulling the feeds until they get it.  

  We'll have people wandering around the streets crying for their mammas unable to construct a forecast without it.

 

EDIT:  I chuck NCEP unless the 0z stays the course.   Compromise of the others.

 

[SR Airglow]

That map is a joke dude, 12-18 south of martha's vineyard LOL LOL LOL LOL come on.

It's the EURO snowmap from I belive Accupro(looks like their graphics), not a joke by any means.

-skisheep

[ORH_wxman]

If you are tossing NCEP guidance and going solely with a Ukie/GGEM/Euro compromise, then you would not have to sound the alarms...it would be a nuisance event for most with perhaps moderate impact of coastal beach erosian/flooding and perhaps low end warning in the elevated interior. But the majority of the region in that type of blend would see a sloppy 2-4/3-6 snow.

[OceanStWx]

If you are tossing NCEP guidance and going solely with a Ukie/GGEM/Euro compromise, then you would not have to sound the alarms...it would be a nuisance event for most with perhaps moderate impact of coastal beach erosian/flooding and perhaps low end warning in the elevated interior. But the majority of the region in that type of blend would see a sloppy 2-4/3-6 snow.

 

Which is why HPC's guidance seems appropriate at this point. Equal parts Ukie, Euro, GEM, and GFS. That damps down the impact of the GFS to a low end warning event.

[educate]

all forecasts aside, informing the public of the possibilities of something that may begin in 2 days time and that has this potential has got to be done imo....

If you are tossing NCEP guidance and going solely with a Ukie/GGEM/Euro compromise, then you would not have to sound the alarms...it would be a nuisance event for most with perhaps moderate impact of coastal beach erosian/flooding and perhaps low end warning in the elevated interior. But the majority of the region in that type of blend would see a sloppy 2-4/3-6 snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Which is why HPC's guidance seems appropriate at this point. Equal parts Ukie, Euro, GEM, and GFS. That damps down the impact of the GFS to a low end warning event.

But the trends are cause for some head scratching

One biggie holding fast, one jumping north.

[free_man]

We should probably have someone start a storm-specific banter thread at this point now that it looks like at east some moderate impact will occur for a chunk of the region.

Should I start a new thread for 0z?  this one's getting long.

[ORH_wxman]

all forecasts aside, informing the public of the possibilities of something that may begin in 2 days time and that has this potential has got to be done imo....

 

 

I would certainly tell people that this could be a huge storm and to stay alert, but I don't think I would be forecasting 20 inches of snow at this point. I do think this will end up as a pretty decent event at least around these parts (ORH hills) and probably elsewhere as well, but a run of the mill warning event doesn't need to be overhyped....if it looks like something more ferocious (i.e. NCEP guidance solutions) is going to verify, then you start hammering it harder.

[free_man]

EDIT:  I chuck NCEP unless the 0z stays the course.   Compromise of the others.

 

I think I'd account the model trends somewhat, as well.  

[PineHillsWx]

i hope other guidance keep the trend going a tick or two more (sans the gfs/nam) and that the euro is last to catch on.  What a forecasting dis as tah that would be. Forecasting is a thank less job thou.  It really is.

 

i do find it a bit surprising that bos mets are so subdued...i mean why not mention the chance of somethng much bigger....there favorite model shows it? it really highlights the politics of forecasting and the bashing on FB some news channels got from putting out a map 4 days out then constantly down grading it .......now they go the other way to an extreme IMO. I think bos mets are gun shy after they sorta put out maps 4 days out then got alot of flack on social media.....producers def. pay attention to that response.

This post is right on the money in my opinion. They are gun shy after that event and all the crap they took for forecasting a big storm (with totals that didn't occur for most) 4 days out. The other fact is I heard at least 2 of the Boston Mets say they are going with the most reliable model in their mind (the Euro). I don't think they should be throwing out totals but man, they played up the coastal threat but the snow threat was really downplayed. Going to be a very interesting 24 hours.

[OceanStWx]

But the trends are cause for some head scratching

One biggie holding fast, one jumping north.

 

 

Well the trend could start back in the other direction too. In fact, the GFS probably will tick back in the other direction at some point.

[Baroclinic Zone]

new thread

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39596-march-6-8th-ocean-storm-discussion-part-iii/

[N. OF PIKE]

HPC gives me 20-25% shot at 12+ inches by thurs eve (just into second green shading) and gives 30-40% probs of 12+ by thurs eve.  (72 hrs out) for an area covering N 1/4 of RI Ne to say wellesley NW to say boxborough SW to say Shrewsbury.  Damnn

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php

[Logan11]

Or it could be correct and the US models might be totally full of it.  LOL  I guess we'll know at 1:00 AM.  There are quite a few met's out there that simply are not going to bite on this storm until the Euro bites.

 

 

You have a lot of drama in your posts. You should write scripts for reality TV.

 

The Euro has failed big time before and it will again. This is nothing new.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

If you are tossing NCEP guidance and going solely with a Ukie/GGEM/Euro compromise, then you would not have to sound the alarms...it would be a nuisance event for most with perhaps moderate impact of coastal beach erosian/flooding and perhaps low end warning in the elevated interior. But the majority of the region in that type of blend would see a sloppy 2-4/3-6 snow.

Will the Boston mets forecast nothing. Rain showers and some flakes and nothing of either west of rhode island. I like the hpc graphic as a rough, safe outline for now. I will wait for another run before biting on the ncep 4" atomic qpf. It may be right but I think it's wise to play it out tonight first.

My sense is we could have every single model deliver 3" of qpf tonight but if the OP Euro for some reason is still crossing 70 down around the equator that's what people will go with....

This isn't one of the fast moving scrapers where the euro came north the over amped gfs came south and phil shoveled 3-5". That gives me pause in wanting to toss the ncep guidance, but IMO at this point both noaa and tv have taken a different operating angle and are waiting, another 3 hours won't hurt I guess.

I keep saying this has played out pretty much like many of the earlier storms but the flow isn't as fast as those and the setups different. This is the time range at which ncep stuff took too big a bite each time but never with this agreement.

More academic for me; temps are an issue here. But for all of you?

[ORH_wxman]

new thread

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39596-march-6-8th-ocean-storm-discussion-part-iii/

 

 

You 'gon break Birving's juju....lol. You got a good track record though. Rounding the final turn, so bring it home.

 

Want to see one last jump NW in the foreign model guidance.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Which is why HPC's guidance seems appropriate at this point. Equal parts Ukie, Euro, GEM, and GFS. That damps down the impact of the GFS to a low end warning event.

Yep, safe play.

I don't think you guys saw the Boston stations. Jerry and I don't ever say much about the news here. They weren't far off from about as much drama as a passing flurry. Just doesn't do the potential justice is all.

[dendrite]

You 'gon break Birving's juju....lol. You got a good track record though. Rounding the final turn, so bring it home.

 

Want to see one last jump NW in the foreign model guidance.

I thought the same thing...lol.

[Arnold214]

But the trends are cause for some head scratching

One biggie holding fast, one jumping north.

a very plausible scenario would be for the gfs to start trending back toward euro. It almost always does within 72 hours when it is much more amped. Not saying that will happen this time, but its too early to go hype the hell out of this...especially with it being the gfs and known biases.