Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If the Euro makes another move NW tonight, time to go all in for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 this could easily bust as a nbd event for most. Mets are playing with fire throwing around numbers, if so. Yes... but instead of it being a 99:1 against hit, it might be a 50/50 for a decent hit... Obviously not that simplistic. I need 12 more hours to figure this out... A certain FB dude is losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I am shocked to see you ride the GFS my how times so quickly change. I'm not riding the GFS...I'm riding the fact that every single model came hundreds and hundreds of miles north today. That cannot be stressed enough, The Euro and Euro ens with that massive shift today was huge..Same with Ukie and NAM to lesser degree. The only question left is was the GFS overamped or was it right? That we don't know. I'd hedge a bet that the Euro isn't done moving north yet..no matter what Dick Tolleris says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not riding the GFS...I'm riding the fact that every single model came hundreds and hundreds of miles north today. That cannot be stressed enough, The Euro and Euro ens with that massive shift today was huge..Same with Ukie and NAM to lesser degree. The only question left is was the GFS overamped or was it right? That we don't know. I'd hedge a bet that the Euro isn't done moving north yet..no matter what Dick Tolleris says He is having a tough day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm not riding the GFS...I'm riding the fact that every single model came hundreds and hundreds of miles north today. That cannot be stressed enough, The Euro and Euro ens with that massive shift today was huge..Same with Ukie and NAM to lesser degree. The only question left is was the GFS overamped or was it right? That we don't know. I'd hedge a bet that the Euro isn't done moving north yet..no matter what Dick Tolleris says Ok, but the Euro is nothing, nothing like the gfs, just seems odd after the 48 hour piggy pile on the GFS no punches pulled, that the much maligned red headed step child is now perhaps leading the way to the dendritical delightfullness. Snow is King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I said days ago in the sping thread that my gut said this was coming north, I am holding out on snow, concerned about coastal flooding and wind. Just do not have a feeling one way or the other on snow.........GGEM Ens blew. I wait for my King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z Euro verbatim still drops 3-6 on most of CT. That alone would have been a victory for this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Yes... but instead of it being a 99:1 against hit, it might be a 50/50 for a decent hit... Obviously not that simplistic. I need 12 more hours to figure this out... A certain FB dude is losing it. I say it's probably a 20/80 - 30/70 for you, maybe 10/90 here. Odds of a major snowstorm, anyway. The problem is there are so many "outs" or things that can go wrong. It will take a huge effort for everything to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ok, but the Euro is nothing, nothing like the gfs, just seems odd after the 48 hour piggy pile on the GFS no punches pulled, that the much maligned red headed step child is now perhaps leading the way to the dendritical delightfullness. Snow is King That's not the point..the point is the Europ shifted massively to the GFS idea. Not vice versa as we usually see That to me says raise your unibrows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 He is having a tough day... He needs to be committed. He has completely lost it. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 12z Euro verbatim still drops 3-6 on most of CT. That alone would have been a victory for this one.... It does? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's not the point..the point is the Europ shifted massively to the GFS idea. Not vice versa as we usually see That to me says raise your unibrows We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At this point what is this looking like for SE MA? Are we looking at all rain or some snow then rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It does? Link? https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/417768_522232441153680_1191674791_n.png sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 or a generator LOL. If anyone wants to dig mine out, they're welcome to. I'm awaiting an EC jump before I get excited. Right now, I think a few inches is a reasonable expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 The fact that the gfs is just so amped, even if it ticks back southeast it would still be a pretty major hit would it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 At this point what is this looking like for SE MA? Are we looking at all rain or some snow then rain?If the GFS or NAM are right then expect a couple inches of slop then a windswept chilly rainstorm for 30 hours.Hope for a ukmet gfs euro blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's not the point..the point is the Europ shifted massively to the GFS idea. Not vice versa as we usually see That to me says raise your unibrows This large or small as this event is, it's an epic fail for the EC which I am very happy to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 This is my fav post from "over there" . Just this once! This is we we gotta hope to some extent that DT is just once right about the northern "actual" movement and the "actual" crappiness the 18z suite has..What is at oz, this thing is further south and east...the low...then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/417768_522232441153680_1191674791_n.png sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net What is that? Snowfall potential, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT going 2-4 for all of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nobody is saying throw numbers....just make the public aware of the real potential here. as example..we have parent-teacher conferences on Thursday and a professional day on Friday. I called our principal and she was very happy to know this as it keeps options open for her and it at least gets administration thinking about what might need to be done. Look, all winter we have had numbers tossed well ahead of the time frame we are currently in. just because you got burned doesn't mean you no longer keep the public aggressively informed as to possibilities and potential and this event surely has plenty of that. this could easily bust as a nbd event for most. Mets are playing with fire throwing around numbers, if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 He is having a tough day... Huh--with all this handwringing, I would have thought he was supposed to get snow. Richmond doesn't even make it into watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT know's his sh.., and I look forward to his commentary. But he can be such a know it all db at times, and refuses to admit he's wrong. He's in complete denial the ECMWF has trended north mainly (I believe) because he said this was not a NE storm and couldn't be one due to the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DT going 2-4 for all of SNE That's my cautious look for the Pit at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Another cold night here with the temp already down to 24F after a high of 33F. This is keeping the ground nice and cold for any snow that we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/417768_522232441153680_1191674791_n.png sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net Thanks! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 That's my cautious look for the Pit at this point. Mine, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks! -skisheep That map is a joke dude, 12-18 south of martha's vineyard LOL LOL LOL LOL come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I have for you - The Single Worst Forecast of the Season. One of the worst All-Time. It's one thing to hug a trend....but it's another thing to hug a model....it's ANOTHER thing to hug the Worst Model that no one believes, and it's even WORST to hug the Worst Model, when it's the Most of something (in this case most NW and most Warm). But it's Entirely another thing, when your map is even MORE NW and Warm than the Most NW and Warm model, especially when it's the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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