Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Upton seems confused with this, their AFD seemed very brief and un Upton like, not to mention they delayed it an hour, presumably for a more thorough look. They also threw out this map which makes little to no sense, even the EURO is 3-6" in NYC according to the NYC forum.

I really don't like to criticize the NWS, they do a great job with what they are given, but this map seems absurdly low...

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

-skisheep

The one correction i would make is by making an adjustment upwards to 1.1" over Essex and Union Counties, NJ.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

SREF plume average in ORH is 16"

18" FIT

13" BOS

15" ASH

7" HFD

9" CON

 

AWT, a few slushy inches inland.

 

I feel pretty good in a solid hit. Trends were impressive today. Will probably have to start chucking numbers tomorrow

 

Really though to warn the public the numbers got to be a chuckin' around here tonight at 11. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 for 12 blizzards on the GEFS and the EURO is a no big deal advisory event. If the EURO is wrong here, which I'm starting to think it is, it's position as the king is in serious jeopardy, combined with it's other misses recently, and it's not looking so infallible anymore...

 

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 for 12 blizzards on the GEFS and the EURO is a no big deal advisory event. If the EURO is wrong here, which I'm starting to think it is, it's position as the king is in serious jeopardy, combined with it's other misses recently, and it's not looking so infallible anymore...

 

-skisheep

Funny, before the temp profile fail, it was the other way around after the blizzard, Euro was KING and the GFS was the bastard child of the model world, how quickly things change before even the first flake has fallen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 for 12 blizzards on the GEFS and the EURO is a no big deal advisory event. If the EURO is wrong here, which I'm starting to think it is, it's position as the king is in serious jeopardy, combined with it's other misses recently, and it's not looking so infallible anymore...

 

-skisheep

You have a lot of drama in your posts. You should write scripts for reality TV. :lol:

 

The Euro has failed big time before and it will again. This is nothing new.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny, before the temp profile fail, it was the other way around after the blizzard, Euro was KING and the GFS was the bastard child of the model world, how quickly things change before even the first flake has fallen.

Euro was craptastic with every single scraper this winter. It didnt get a single one right in the 3-4 day range and most of the time was 500 miles too far south. The perception of it being better this winter is partly the result if its failures not effecting the majority of the board.

If the 4" wet snow bomb we got 12 or so days ago hit boston etc instead of here people would have noticed. That'd have shut Tolland down for days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny, before the temp profile fail, it was the other way around after the blizzard, Euro was KING and the GFS was the bastard child of the model world, how quickly things change before even the first flake has fallen.

It's with other storms as well, it's been frequently too far south right up until the last minute. They didn't affect us, but they still were misses all the same.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have a lot of drama in your posts. You should write scripts for reality TV. :lol:

 

The Euro has failed big time before and it will again. This is nothing new.

Drama makes it more exciting, reality TV sounds nice, though I'm not the best writer :)

It has failed big time before, but this to me is more than the average fail, this is a large scale failure.(assuming it's failed, which I think it has, although I'm not convinced yet)

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro was craptastic with every single scraper this winter. It didnt get a single one right in the 3-4 day range and most of the time was 500 miles too far south. The perception of it being better this winter is partly the result if its failures not effecting the majority of the board.

If the 4" wet snow bomb we got 12 or so days ago hit boston etc instead of here people would have noticed. That'd have shut Tolland down for days.

This.

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Drama makes it more exciting, reality TV sounds nice, though I'm not the best writer :)

It has failed big time before, but this to me is more than the average fail, this is a large scale failure.(assuming it's failed, which I think it has, although I'm not convinced yet)

-skisheep

Boxing Day was a large scale failure too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really though to warn the public the numbers got to be a chuckin' around here tonight at 11. 

 

I dunno. I'm fine with waiting for the Euro tonight. Start honking tomorrow AM and people have all day to prepare and really the "worst" of any storm wouldn't be until Wednesday night and Thursday.  It's not like the very worst moves in for the AM commute on Wednesday. 

 

 

need to be very careful still!

 

I know. It's hard to get too amped up yet but I'm more the 50% confident we'll get something "decent" here in CT. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will magnify the impact of even a glancing blow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dunno. I'm fine with waiting for the Euro tonight. Start honking tomorrow AM and people have all day to prepare and really the "worst" of any storm wouldn't be until Wednesday night and Thursday. It's not like the very worst moves in for the AM commute on Wednesday.

I know. It's hard to get too amped up yet but I'm more the 50% confident we'll get something "decent" here in CT. Gusty winds and some coastal flooding will magnify the impact of even a glancing blow.

i agree...especially at the shore. The combination of the above factors will probably make this a very nasty storm for some there.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boxing Day was a large scale failure too.

True, that's probably the closest comparison, although I think this might be worse because in boxing day, everything lost it*, here, the GFS has had it for 5 runs now, and GEFS longer.

 

*I was on a cruise and missed the whole thing, at $.75 per minute for internet on ship, weather can wait for my return!

 

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Channel 6(NBC 30) mentioned the potential for a strong noreaster, and stated that it could snow heavily wed night. But they didn't go in detail about accumulations/impacts at all.  Probably a good idea to hold off on that stuff until 11:00 anyhow.

 

Yeah I think we had the right tone. All weekend I was talking about the storm and how we had to watch it... ramped up a bit at 11 last night saying that one model was really going bonkers with a big hit... so I think people are aware there's a storm out there.

 

Can wait for the Euro tonight to start really getting into details. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...