Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Jerry I am actually wondering at what point folks are going to realize this is a Megastorm with mega inflow producing copious amounts of iso lift. Came south?.??? , actually trended stronger across all parameters. DT is delusional. I think rain/snow questions are valid, after all this is a retrograding airmass to our northeast. Dynamics obviously overcome a lot, but I wonder if the wind and coastal issues might trump snow in the end as highest impacts from this storm if it were to hit as depicted by the gfs. I will wait until the best model in the world comes on board before buying a ticket, but the train is certainly getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The coast is fooked on the gfs in terms if tidal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's one thing to ride the Euro, most of us do including the pros. But discounting everything else is just stupid. Especially with the Euro trending a certain way. It's like no one wants to do some critical thinking. Stunning. We're screwed when Harv and Barry retire, we really are. Butterfly kisses and lollipops on Wednesday. Nothing to see here, maybe a slushy snowshower in the foothills, a passing sprinkle on the coast with some slight puffs of wind. Tune back in Thursday morning when we'll let you know how much will fall Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ens ratchet it up even more wow, warmer to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Stunning. We're screwed when Harv and Barry retire, we really are. Butterfly kisses and lollipops on Wednesday. Nothing to see here, maybe a slushy snowshower in the foothills, a passing sprinkle on the coast with some slight puffs of wind. Tune back in Thursday morning when we'll let you know how much will fall Wednesday night. Re 18z ens. Just WOW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 3" bullseye near GHG on the GEFS. Not as good for ME and N NH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ens ratchet it up even more wow, warmer to. I still go with toss the NCEP extremes until the 0z but I think I'm hosed literally...horizontal rains FTW with sand in my living room from that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Upton seems confused with this, their AFD seemed very brief and un Upton like, not to mention they delayed it an hour, presumably for a more thorough look. They also threw out this map which makes little to no sense, even the EURO is 3-6" in NYC according to the NYC forum. I really don't like to criticize the NWS, they do a great job with what they are given, but this map seems absurdly low... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS/GEFS/RGEM/NAVGEM major hits. GGEM decent hit UKMET...looked good through 72 but unsure. Euro modest hit. I think all formats ramp up tonight and Euro shows a signifcant hit at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ens ratchet it up even more wow, warmer to. How much warmer? Enough to cause major issues down here? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is one of those storm situations where every network will show radically different forecasts; some prior to model updates, some post model updates. Its going to be a nightmare for the public to make any sense of all this.. To wit, that awful upton map just posted by Skisheep.. Sheesh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS/GEFS/RGEM/NAVGEM major hits. GGEM decent hit UKMET...looked good through 72 but unsure. Euro modest hit. I think all formats ramp up tonight and Euro shows a signifcant hit at 0Z. well just watched the roundup, looks like they're Leslie Niselen'ing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Massive GEFS hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Surge values are ranging from 3-5 feet on the ET surge charts. More NE winds would effect the EMA coast more than LI sound. Wave models now have 15-20 foot breakers near shore on open ocean beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The big, burning question will be this - Will Ekster lose his bet to TheSnowman Cory? Cory didn't actually realize I moved to Maine. So there was no bet that I know of, lol. Just a dustitng today here...may be pretty easy to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That really is a 4" spot on the GFS isn't it. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Massive GEFS hitIf anybody remembers or has archived a more impressive winter storm GEFS map at t minus 60 hrs I would love to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is one of those storm situations where every network will show radically different forecasts; some prior to model updates, some post model updates. Its going to be a nightmare for the public to make any sense of all this.. To wit, that awful upton map just posted by Skisheep.. Sheesh.. If I was going on air tonight for NYC metro, I'd go 3-6" as a baseline, and emphasize the potential for much more. Really no model is 1-3" in NYC anymore since the EURO caved, I think even the GGEM is that much, and given that the RGEM is much better(extrapolating), I think the GGEM can be tossed for the most point. Probably would go 6-8" for BOS, with the potential for much more again. The 1-3" by Upton seems just absurd, especially for areas not in the immediate metro and LI(Connecticut, Westchester, and New Jersey) I would be very suprised to see Upton and Taunton not put out watches overnight, assuming no drastic shift SE. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 3" bullseye near GHG on the GEFS. Not as good for ME and N NH though. That is absolutely insane. Anything up here? I'm close to going home despite having a test Thursday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If someone gets 4" liquid equiv in snow ill buy them a 12 pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That is absolutely insane. Anything up here? I'm close to going home despite having a test Thursday lol. School comes first. 1" line gets somewhere around here to Plym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Reports of a streaker seen on the Tolland Green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Cory didn't actually realize I moved to Maine. So there was no bet that I know of, lol. Just a dustitng today here...may be pretty easy to beat. maybe not......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 School comes first. 1" line gets somewhere around here to Plym. Yeah I saw the map, thanks Brian. I won't actually go home, just in denial stage haha. Hope the GEFS is right up here. That would be decent just not the 2-3 feet down south haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The gfs has rocked sne for 5 consecutive runs. the amazing thing has been the consistency from run to run. AND....the other models have made big moves in its direction. AND....we are now within 48 hours of the onset of the event. What in tarnation do forecasting folks want to see. Not alerting the public to the strong potential at this point is borderline ..(fill in the blank)..at this point. This is coming and it will be a very big event. If anybody remembers or has archived a more impressive winter storm GEFS map at t minus 60 hrs I would love to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ch 5 just showed their snowfall map based on the Euro. 2.6" for Boston.... HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ch 5 just showed their snowfall map based on the Euro. 2.6" for Boston.... HA! sure that wasnt rain amounts?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ch 5 just showed their snowfall map based on the Euro. 2.6" for Boston.... HA! Well the EURO had like .75" for BOS so with light rates and warm surface temps that may be right. But...the EURO is kind of on its own at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's one thing to ride the Euro, most of us do including the pros. But discounting everything else is just stupid. Especially with the Euro trending a certain way. It's like no one wants to do some critical thinking. Channel 9 here in NH was interesting. He actually showed the Euro and talked about the track the Euro projects. He said it was the most trusted model. He did say other models were showing a much closer path and potentially big snowfall for NH. He urged everyone to stay tuned. All in all a much more urgent message than the laid back Boston 6pm forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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