Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II

free_man

By free_man,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Bryan

Bryan

Posted
Posted

They are afraid of getting burned and can always adjust by tomorrow.   I don't think they are being that irresponsible.  Especially with tomorrow as a cushion.

 

Nah I agree with you, however, I don't think they would get burned too much if they just tossed out there the warning of the possibility of a major strike with a trend in the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I think your point about model hugging is valid though. This is what happens when you assume straight out whiff, without a hint of a threat or throwing red flags. If you had blended guidance from the beginning, you would have at least seen a chance for snow (or rain snow mix whatever the stations felt like putting in).

 

Yup you bet.  We're locked into that mindset now of a miss, just like when they lock into the heavier totals when Ray and Tip already have the rope and chair out as they get dryslotted.

 

NCEP stuff I think is overdone still, Euro OP and CMC 12z underdone.  Truth will be in the middle which is an impressive hit nonetheless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Yeah I'm just playing devil's advocate... but it seems no matter what the OCM's do in the Boston area folks aren't happy, lol.  They got bashed hard for putting maps out too early, now they play caution and get bashed for being irresponsible.  Really a no win situation.

 

But this is the point 'n click for Brookline, MA.... this doesn't exactly scream huge impact event may be incoming.  And these POPs are higher than areas like NE CT and ORH where its only 30-40% at this point.  So BOS is only thinking a 30-40% of precipitation in 48-72 hours, much less significant weather.  I mean that's a 50-70% chance that nothing falls from the sky.  Also, those temps look pretty ugly for a big snowstorm, lol.  Though I'd assume they would come down if BOX buys into big QPF.

 

attachicon.gif brookline.png

those POPs will change drastically by tomorrow I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Wow......the GFS being so steadfast is reminiscent of the EURO leading up the the bliz...

 

Remember how steadfast the GFS was leading up to the big Bliz.... even 12 hours prior it barely had 1" of QPF into CT, lol.  It seems to be stubborn in whatever solution it shows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

I think your point about model hugging is valid though. This is what happens when you assume straight out whiff, without a hint of a threat or throwing red flags. If you had blended guidance from the beginning, you would have at least seen a chance for snow (or rain snow mix whatever the stations felt like putting in).

And forecasters seem to err on the side of continuity, so once they've spoken definitively about one outcome they're not as likely to do a public 180 based on a few model runs 2-3 days out. I agree that many of these folks would be in better shape if they'd hedged more from the start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

those POPs will change drastically by tomorrow I think.

 

Yeah and I'm sure the on-camera met forecasts will change a lot by tomorrow if it still looks like this and the ECM/GGEM come north.

 

Honestly, often it seems OCM follow the NWS in this type of stuff when there is doubt.  There are no watches out, so there's really nothing for them to go out with in that regard.  If a watch comes out overnight, they can mention it on the news tomorrow morning.  "It looks like the storm is coming further north, and the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch...etc"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Agreed Jerry.  I mean "we'll fine tune in the days ahead"...LOL no kidding, but yikes.

 

Anyway, NCEP is forecasting, and here it is.  No comment for any other region or NW of us, but I like where the .5 contour cuts for now pending the 0z.

A blend. No reason to discount that and a reasonable forecast vs others going on from some OCMs around here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Poo poohing is just as bad as hyping. Just say "very tough forecast, a big storm is possible, more details as it gets clearer" vs slushy few inchese outside 495 which is bs...not a single model has that forecast that I've seen.

 

Agreed with that way to say it.  Pretty much what BOX said and they gave the nod to the ECMWF... surprised no one mentioned the AFD.  They don't seem convinced yet.

 

Long AFD so here are some points we are talking about...nod to the ECM, but if the GFS is right, they say best chance for warning snowfall is in the interior with coastal plain and south coast as "mostly rain."

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA428 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHTSNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THROUGH THE EVENING. AN OCEANSTORM MAY STILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNINGWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. COASTALFLOODING...MARINE ISSUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATIONARE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...04/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SYNOPTICSCALE BLOCKING PATTERN AND THEREFORE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDERANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM. THE TWOEXTREMES ARE BASICALLY THE ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGERBLOCKING HIGH...AND IS MOSTLY A MISS SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF THESOUTH COAST...AND THE GFS/GEFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER BLOCK /LOW PRESCLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK/ AND WOULD BRING A MIXED BAG OFPRECIPITATION /MORE LIKELY FOR HEAVY SNOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS/.NAM/CMC GUIDANCE ARE BOTH IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTYHERE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A DEFERENCE TOWARD THE LOWERIMPACT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIOIS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT ECMWFHAS GENERALLY HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE VERY MERIDIONAL/BLOCKING/ FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ATLANTIC OVERSEVERAL DAYS...SO AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLEON THE DEEPENING HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIANMARITIMES. ALSO...MODEL QPF FIELDS ON THE GFS/GEFS ARE INTERESTINGGIVEN BEST MID LVL DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY BE WELL S OF THE QPFBULLSEYE ITS SHOWING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELTRENDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS COULD BE EITHER A LOW ORHIGH IMPACT EVENT BASED SOLELY ON THE MODEL STORM TRACK.PRECIPITATION...ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES HERE ANDDIFFERENCES IN THE STORM TRACK PRECIP IS STILL AB IT OF AQUESTION MARK. THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FORSOME SNOWFALL...BUT WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITHPOTENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO SNOW TOWARD SRN NEW HAMPSHIRE.HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE PROVIDED BY THE BLOCKING TO THE NIS NOT A COLD AS ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN A TYPICAL SRN NEWENGLAND COASTAL STORM...WHICH WOULD LOWER RATIOS. THE GFS...WOULDSUGGEST MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT WITH A MORESIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THESOUTH COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH MORE SNOW INLAND. THIS WOULDPOTENTIALLY BE WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.SO ESSENTIALLY...WILL BE FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SCOAST...WITH A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX /TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THEINTERIOR/.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

A blend. No reason to discount that and a reasonable forecast vs others going on from some OCMs around here.

 

Mother Euro.  I'd discount NCEPs guidance for now too, but like you said all they have to say is the potential is there for a high impact event, please stay tuned.   Honestly, the broadcasts were pretty woeful in highlighting even the potential.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Agreed Jerry.  I mean "we'll fine tune in the days ahead"...LOL no kidding, but yikes.

 

Anyway, NCEP is forecasting, and here it is.  No comment for any other region or NW of us, but I like where the .5 contour cuts for now pending the 0z.

 

That looks really reasonable right now.  Pretty much a blend of the major model guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
It's one thing to ride the Euro, most of us do including the pros. But discounting everything else is just stupid. Especially with the Euro trending a certain way. It's like no one wants to do some critical thinking.
Jerry I am actually wondering at what point folks are going to realize this is a Megastorm with mega inflow producing copious amounts of iso lift. Came south?.??? , actually trended stronger across all parameters. DT is delusional.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Agreed with that way to say it.  Pretty much what BOX said and they gave the nod to the ECMWF... surprised no one mentioned the AFD.  They don't seem convinced yet.

 

Long AFD so here are some points we are talking about...nod to the ECM, but if the GFS is right, they say best chance for warning snowfall is in the interior with coastal plain and south coast as "mostly rain."

 

 





 


 


 


I think the most important aspects of their discussion are not the negative storm thought, but were in fact:


 


1   " WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS COULD BE EITHER A LOW OR HIGH IMPACT EVENT BASED SOLELY ON THE MODEL STORM TRACK."


 


- and - 


 


2   "GIVEN THE WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...THIS REMAINS A LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST."


 


As in take EVERYTHING they said with a huge grain of salt ( or is it grain of assault..?)   anywho, they may as well have said, 'RELY ON OTHER OFFICES AND FORECAST TECHNIQUES BECAUSE WE ARE REALLY NOT SURE ENOUGH EITHER WAY', and that would have about covered it. 



			
		


		

		
	


	

	





	
Link to comment

	
		
	
	
	

	
	
Share on other sites

	

	


	

	

	




	



					
					
					
				

					

					
					






	

	

	

		

			

				


	
		Clinch Leatherwood
	

				
				
			

		

		

			

				


Clinch Leatherwood
			

			

				Posted 
				
			

		

	

	
	

		




	

		

			

				
    
					
					
					
					
					
				

			

			
		


		

			Posted 
			
			
				
				
			
		

	


	

    

	

		
		

			



Agreed with that way to say it.  Pretty much what BOX said and they gave the nod to the ECMWF... surprised no one mentioned the AFD.  They don't seem convinced yet.


 


Long AFD so here are some points we are talking about...nod to the ECM, but if the GFS is right, they say best chance for warning snowfall is in the interior with coastal plain and south coast as "mostly rain."


 


 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA428 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHTSNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THROUGH THE EVENING. AN OCEANSTORM MAY STILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE REGION BEGINNINGWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. COASTALFLOODING...MARINE ISSUES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATIONARE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM.OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...04/12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH SYNOPTICSCALE BLOCKING PATTERN AND THEREFORE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDERANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN THE MID-LATE WEEK STORM. THE TWOEXTREMES ARE BASICALLY THE ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGERBLOCKING HIGH...AND IS MOSTLY A MISS SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF THESOUTH COAST...AND THE GFS/GEFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER BLOCK /LOW PRESCLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK/ AND WOULD BRING A MIXED BAG OFPRECIPITATION /MORE LIKELY FOR HEAVY SNOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS/.NAM/CMC GUIDANCE ARE BOTH IN THE MIDDLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTYHERE...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH A DEFERENCE TOWARD THE LOWERIMPACT ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIOIS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE REASONING HERE IS THAT ECMWFHAS GENERALLY HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE VERY MERIDIONAL/BLOCKING/ FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH ATLANTIC OVERSEVERAL DAYS...SO AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLEON THE DEEPENING HIGH PRES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIANMARITIMES. ALSO...MODEL QPF FIELDS ON THE GFS/GEFS ARE INTERESTINGGIVEN BEST MID LVL DYNAMICS WOULD LIKELY BE WELL S OF THE QPFBULLSEYE ITS SHOWING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELTRENDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THIS COULD BE EITHER A LOW ORHIGH IMPACT EVENT BASED SOLELY ON THE MODEL STORM TRACK.PRECIPITATION...ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES HERE ANDDIFFERENCES IN THE STORM TRACK PRECIP IS STILL AB IT OF AQUESTION MARK. THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FORSOME SNOWFALL...BUT WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...WITHPOTENTIALLY LITTLE TO NO SNOW TOWARD SRN NEW HAMPSHIRE.HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DRAINAGE PROVIDED BY THE BLOCKING TO THE NIS NOT A COLD AS ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN A TYPICAL SRN NEWENGLAND COASTAL STORM...WHICH WOULD LOWER RATIOS. THE GFS...WOULDSUGGEST MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT WITH A MORESIGNIFICANT MARINE INFLUENCE THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THESOUTH COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH MORE SNOW INLAND. THIS WOULDPOTENTIALLY BE WARNING LEVEL SNOWS FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.SO ESSENTIALLY...WILL BE FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS FOR THE SCOAST...WITH A POTENTIAL RAIN SNOW MIX /TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THEINTERIOR/.




 


 


GFS surface and M/L don't gel IMO.  It should have shifted south some and it didn't, but TAN mentions that pretty well.  Harbinger of it coming further north possibly or caving south, we'll see later.


 


"accumulating snow showers maybe" in the hills of Rhode Island...channel 7.



			
		


		

		
			

		
	


	

	





	
Link to comment

	
		
	
	
	

	
	
Share on other sites

	

	


	

	

	




	



					
					
					
				

					

					
					





					
					
					
				
			
			



		

	


	
		

			


	
	

		

	
	
	
		

			
Archived

			

				This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.
			

		

	
	
	
		
	

			
				
					


	


	
		Guest
	


	

		

			 This topic is now closed to further replies. 
		
			
		

	



				
			
		

	

	







	

		
			
				Go to topic listing
			
		
	

	




						


	

		
    
			
				
					
					
  • 

    • 
				
					
					
  • 

    
    
    
        
            Recently Browsing
        
        
          0 members
        
    
    
    
    
        
      
            
                
    • No registered users viewing this page.
      • 
            
        
    
        
    
    

    • 
				
			
		

	


					

					


	

		
		
			
			

		
		
		


	


					

				

			

			
		

      
      

    
        
            

		




            
        
    


		
			
			



	

		×
		


    
	





			
				

					


			

			

			

			
		

	






	

		×
		

			
    

  • Create New...
    •