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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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Yeah the NAM is close to something a lot bigger...but I really couldn't care less what the NAM shows at this point. Maybe it will actually figure out a system outside of 48 hours at some point, but until it does, there's little reason to take it seriously.

Rgem looks much better. Note it too has almost a closed contour 5h feature now wnw of us.

Major win for the goofus on that feature. But it could still fumble the main ULL in being fast biased and screw the pooch

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Rgem looks much better. Note it too has almost a closed contour 5h feature now wnw of us.

Major win for the goofus on that feature. But it could still fumble the main ULL in being fast biased and screw the pooch

 

Just in case anyone is looking ... there probably won't be any run where all the models just jump on the same page with the GFS.  If the GFS is going to be more right, these other guidance types will hedge against while reluctantly conceding in small intervals over the next several cycles, such that the integrated correction out in time "ends up" more GFS-like.    

 

You know what ...  The way this winter and modeling performance has gone over all, you could almost see the 12z GFS and it's members going SE, and the 12z Euro stays SE, and the collective sentiment in here is stressed, frustrated, and angry, venting all their ire on the GFS; then, sometime tomorrow all models including the Euro come back NW and we end up getting clocked.   

 

No one will remember the day and half's worth of GFS cycles that saw it - they'll only remember how fun it is to scapegoat it.  I tell you what, it's tough to imagine what this forum would be like if the GFS wasn't around to server as a lightning rod for people's baggage - haha

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This should be a more compromising run for the GFS.  It got this feature over New England right but was probably a little fast in the south.  So, one of those deals where it does really well in one area, not so well in the other vs the Euro that tends to be more even throughout.

 

Or maybe not, LOL. 

 

The GFS keeps surprising me, I really expected the slower nature would allow it to bowling ball a bit more than last run, fail on that.

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Well, if the GFS is going to cave, it looks like it's not going to be on this run, it actually looks more amped than 6z...

 

 

Less amplitude actually... The 06 position was sub-528dm in the mid level core, this is between 528 and 534...  But position-wise there are detail differences...

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Thru 42h,  does not look like the GFS is budging on that piece of energy over NYS.  Looks almost dead on to 06z.

 

it won't and it shouldn't...it's a real feature and all models now have it.  RGEM/NAM/GFS etc.  The Euro botched the m/l's up here, and I fully expect it to come around at 12z.

 

That said, the GFS is still a little tough to swallow.

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