March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II

[dryslot]

I'm there with you, Jeff.  Fully interested, but not completely sold.

 

We will need more help Mike, I don't know, I still think we are to far north here for this one

[Zeus]

Lol 4-5" QPF with 50-60 kt 950 mb winds...am I hallucinating?

 

No; the GFS is.

 

It's Monday. This b**ch doesn't get drunk and sloppy on our patio until Wednesday night at the earliest. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[powderfreak]

They're not saying anything, and what they are saying is ridiculous.  Nothing supports a miss at this point, we've really come down to being totally dependent on the Euro.  I doubt we see the locals jump until and only if the 0z Euro comes around which means we'll have about a 30 hour lead in Boston.

 

Nothing supports a miss, and yes the GFS and NAM look good, but you gotta remember you still have models that look like below.  You are reaming the OCM like its a slam dunk HECS.

 

12z GGEM isn't the most robust...a good storm but its not a historic blizzard.  A bunch of panels of 0.1-0.25" QPF isn't going to exactly stack up during the daytime in March under marginal temps.

 

 

 

Then you have the 12z ECMWF that looks a lot like the GGEM in terms of impact.

 

 

 

Chances would be very high of precipitation, but this isn't a slam dunk 2-4" QPF event.  That's what needs to be remembered.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wish we could lock this in...but several days of modeling and wishing ahead... This still could screw the pooch

[CoastalWx]

Track of 500mb low is farther south 18z vs 12z

For you, you want that a little south

[Damage In Tolland]

For you, you want that a little south

i don't see why that trend also won't continue

[Mr Torchey]

Huge jump north on the navgem........red flag, looked real purdy.

[weathafella]

For you, you want that a little south

For us too. I think that allows it to just get captured and wail away at us.

[jaf]

 

Wxrisk.com

 

‎*** ALERT*** 18Z GFS COMES BACK SOUTH A LITTLE ***

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nothing supports a miss, and yes the GFS and NAM look good, but you gotta remember you still have models that look like below.  You are reaming the OCM like its a slam dunk HECS.

 

12z GGEM isn't the most robust...a good storm but its not a historic blizzard.  A bunch of panels of 0.1-0.25" QPF isn't going to exactly stack up during the daytime in March under marginal temps.

 

 

 

Then you have the 12z ECMWF that looks a lot like the GGEM in terms of impact.

 

ECM.jpg

 

 

Chances would be very high of precipitation, but this isn't a slam dunk 2-4" QPF event.  That's what needs to be remembered.

 

It's 42 hours out, they kind of need to get off the pot.  What they are doing is entirely inconsistent with the rest of the year including BOX.  We've had snow maps like 3-4 days in advance. 

 

At some point they need to issue a forecast, waiting for the 0z Euro ain't going to cut it.

 

Part of the problem is the A team is on vacation on Channels 5 and 7

[weathafella]

Nothing supports a miss, and yes the GFS and NAM look good, but you gotta remember you still have models that look like below.  You are reaming the OCM like its a slam dunk HECS.

 

12z GGEM isn't the most robust...a good storm but its not a historic blizzard.  A bunch of panels of 0.1-0.25" QPF isn't going to exactly stack up during the daytime in March under marginal temps.

 

 

 

Then you have the 12z ECMWF that looks a lot like the GGEM in terms of impact.

 

ECM.jpg

 

 

Chances would be very high of precipitation, but this isn't a slam dunk 2-4" QPF event.  That's what needs to be remembered.

But CMC's RGEM was mighty robust with the 18Z solution and the Euro was a huge cave towards other guidance. I think it should be mentioned but not yet hyped. Mentioned in that "Chances are growing for a significant storm Wednesday night into Friday".

[NorEastermass128]

RPM looks pretty warm per the media outlets.

 

Rainy inside 495.  Not sure I buy it with NE winds and a HP to the north.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just one to ponder... Glad the GFS came south...lol

 

[CTWeatherFreak]

Wxrisk.com

 

‎*** ALERT*** 18Z GFS COMES BACK SOUTH A LITTLE ***

 It did.. a hair.. But the qpf remained north and was more copious, which would be a good signal that there's some wiggle room.

[Bryan]

Ch. 4 is going with the mostly miss some fringe effects snow in the elevations.

 

Ch. 5 lots of coastal effects, snow west of 495.

 

Ch. 7 minimal impact, some slushy snow outside of 495.

[NorEastermass128]

It's 42 hours out, they kind of need to get off the pot.  What they are doing is entirely inconsistent with the rest of the year including BOX.  We've had snow maps like 3-4 days in advance. 

 

At some point they need to issue a forecast, waiting for the 0z Euro ain't going to cut it.

 

Part of the problem is the A team is on vacation on Channels 5 and 7

 

Noyes is confident of a 1-2" QPF event for much of SNE.  Only problem is precip type.  I'd feel good in ORH.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Channel 7

 

"minimal impact storm, couple of slushy inches outside of 495"

"need to iron out the details over the next day or so:

 

WTF...shameful, sorry.  Helpless without Mother Euro.

[PineHillsWx]

It's 42 hours out, they kind of need to get off the pot.  What they are doing is entirely inconsistent with the rest of the year including BOX.  We've had snow maps like 3-4 days in advance. 

 

At some point they need to issue a forecast, waiting for the 0z Euro ain't going to cut it.

 

Part of the problem is the A team is on vacation on Channels 5 and 7

I bet Kevin M. on Fox hits it hard at 6pm.

[OceanStWx]

It's 42 hours out, they kind of need to get off the pot.  What they are doing is entirely inconsistent with the rest of the year including BOX.  We've had snow maps like 3-4 days in advance. 

 

At some point they need to issue a forecast, waiting for the 0z Euro ain't going to cut it.

 

Part of the problem is the A team is on vacation on Channels 5 and 7

 

 

Well that is reason right there not to issue maps that early, people learn to expect it. This is a low confidence forecast. Confidence is growing on impacts but it is still a low confidence forecast because 24 hours ago this was a whiff on most guidance.

[NorEastermass128]

Ch. 4 is going with the mostly miss some fringe effects snow in the elevations.

 

Ch. 5 lots of coastal effects, snow west of 495.

 

Ch. 7 minimal impact, some slushy snow outside of 495.

 

I hope we get blasted with 1-2' of paste just to spite these forecasts.

[dryslot]

RPM looks pretty warm per the media outlets.

 

Rainy inside 495.  Not sure I buy it with NE winds and a HP to the north.

 

The problem is, Its not all that cold to my north with that high

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Well that is reason right there not to issue maps that early, people learn to expect it. This is a low confidence forecast. Confidence is growing on impacts but it is still a low confidence forecast because 24 hours ago this was a whiff on most guidance.

 

Ocean much less directed at KTAN than TV.  These TV guys in Boston might as well put up a smiling sun for Wed/Thurs.  AT the very least say "potential is there for a much larger storm"

They're treating this like a windy alberta clipper.  It's really bad.

 

I am in agreement with those that think the GFS is overdone, probably the NAM a bit too, but this is a good hit coming regardless.  I mean one of the networks just said some rain showers.

[subdude]

Ch. 4 is going with the mostly miss some fringe effects snow in the elevations.

Ch. 5 lots of coastal effects, snow west of 495.

Ch. 7 minimal ipact, some slushy snow outside of 495.

Noyes just blurted out possibility of 6-12 for certain areas.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Channel 7

 

"minimal impact storm, couple of slushy inches outside of 495"

"need to iron out the details over the next day or so:

 

WTF...shameful, sorry.  Helpless without Mother Euro.

Dear god... that is awful...  At least mention the possibility.  I am not 100% sold, but at least I have an open mind.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Wow......the GFS being so steadfast is reminiscent of the EURO leading up the the bliz...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Ch. 4 is going with the mostly miss some fringe effects snow in the elevations.

 

Ch. 5 lots of coastal effects, snow west of 495.

 

Ch. 7 minimal impact, some slushy snow outside of 495.

 

They are afraid of getting burned and can always adjust by tomorrow.   I don't think they are being that irresponsible.  Especially with tomorrow as a cushion.

[wxeyeNH]

Ch. 4 is going with the mostly miss some fringe effects snow in the elevations.

 

Ch. 5 lots of coastal effects, snow west of 495.

 

Ch. 7 minimal impact, some slushy snow outside of 495.

 I watched them too.  Wow, awful.  They should say its too early to nail this down but it could be a high impact storm for SNE and I would urge all of you to keep up on latest forecast as the trend today has been to bring the storm closer than we thought.   Thats what I bet Harvey would have said.

[OceanStWx]

Ocean much less directed at KTAN than TV.  These TV guys in Boston might as well put up a smiling sun for Wed/Thurs.  AT the very least say "potential is there for a much larger storm"

They're treating this like a windy alberta clipper.  It's really bad.

 

I am in agreement with those that think the GFS is overdone, probably the NAM a bit too, but this is a good hit coming regardless.  I mean one of the networks just said some rain showers.

 

I think your point about model hugging is valid though. This is what happens when you assume straight out whiff, without a hint of a threat or throwing red flags. If you had blended guidance from the beginning, you would have at least seen a chance for snow (or rain snow mix whatever the stations felt like putting in).

[ineedsnow]

I would hate to be in the grocery stores tomorrow if all mets all of a sudden hit this hard when people are expecting nothing today

[powderfreak]

But CMC's RGEM was mighty robust with the 18Z solution and the Euro was a huge cave towards other guidance. I think it should be mentioned but not yet hyped. Mentioned in that "Chances are growing for a significant storm Wednesday night into Friday".

 

Yeah I'm just playing devil's advocate... but it seems no matter what the OCM's do in the Boston area folks aren't happy, lol.  They got bashed hard for putting maps out too early, now they play caution and get bashed for being irresponsible.  Really a no win situation.

 

But this is the point 'n click for Brookline, MA.... this doesn't exactly scream huge impact event may be incoming.  And these POPs are higher than areas like NE CT and ORH where its only 30-40% at this point.  So BOS is only thinking a 30-40% of precipitation in 48-72 hours, much less significant weather.  I mean that's a 50-70% chance that nothing falls from the sky.  Also, those temps look pretty ugly for a big snowstorm, lol.  Though I'd assume they would come down if BOX buys into big QPF.