powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's lonely at the top. lol...it brings even 0.75"< up to BTV and north to the Canadian border. I'm guessing reality is around 0.075" QPF up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Might be the first time I've seen the 4" contour show up in a snowstorm on a model run this close to an event. I think the NAM was showing amounts like that a day before the blizzard last month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Channel 5 "now not such a guarantee that it's a miss" WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We need more model help, I an not on board just based on the GFS I'm there with you, Jeff. Fully interested, but not completely sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And it starts pulling away by 105-111. Probably max QPF of 4.25" somewhere in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Midlothian Wx might have to come back to film a sequel. Talk about a ripper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Channel 5 "now not such a guarantee that it's a miss" WTF I think that's reasonable for a headliner. The truth is, people get their news from cable but tune into the local weather. Channel 5 is Harvey so I figure he's digesting things..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That is Dec 92 folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol...it brings even 0.75"< up to BTV and north to the Canadian border. I'm guessing reality is around 0.075" QPF up this way. With that high to the north, the cutoff will be sharp wherever it ends up being. That's how the NAM shows warning criteria snows in southern NH while we're counting the flakes as they fall at GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol...it brings even 0.75"< up to BTV and north to the Canadian border. I'm guessing reality is around 0.075" QPF up this way. Keep the faith, man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Boston TV weathermen doing a big disservice, JMHO. Channel 4 "chance we deal with some accumulating snow" HAHA. Honestly, time to put the big boy pants on and make a forecast. You want them to make a forecast but it seems like they are leaning one way and you want them to lean the other way. There's a chance BOS deals with some accumulating snow. True statement, 3 feet is still "accumulating snow" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think that's reasonable for a headliner. The truth is, people get their news from cable but tune into the local weather. Channel 5 is Harvey so I figure he's digesting things..... He's on vacation. Us FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol so if/when this finally de amps on models maybe tomorrow, we'll end up with a comparably reasonable solution of a 2" qpf blizzard at this rate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18Z GFS = holy $%^*(%*(!!! I like where I'm sitting on this one. Kinda reminds me of the NAM qpf map about the same time out for the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With that high to the north, the cutoff will be sharp wherever it ends up being. That's how the NAM shows warning criteria snows in southern NH while we're counting the flakes as they fall at GYX. Yeah, the NAM solution looked pretty reasonable in that regard. This always seem to hit a brick wall somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You want them to make a forecast but it seems like they are leaning one way and you want them to lean the other way. There's a chance BOS deals with some accumulating snow. True statement, 3 feet is still "accumulating snow" lol. They're not saying anything, and what they are saying is ridiculous. Nothing supports a miss at this point, we've really come down to being totally dependent on the Euro. I doubt we see the locals jump until and only if the 0z Euro comes around which means we'll have about a 30 hour lead in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 looks like I will be up late for the 0Z runs.. talk to you guys then.. what are some of the local mets saying? Local mets all being very vague as you would expect. They aren't banging the drums hard at all other then regarding coastal concerns. Channel 5 (Mike W/Harvey isn't in unfortunately) is the only one that mentioned the chance of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm there with you, Jeff. Fully interested, but not completely sold. Rightly so. NW MA for all practical purposes is part of CNE so could be good for us but not epic. It looks like verbatim BOS flips to rain at 72 hours (still easily snow at 66 hours)...but by the time it does, something like 25-30 inches of snow has fallen...it actually goes back to snow around 78h. LOL--understatement of the winter. The weight of that rain on wet snow would really be a roof crusher in some instances. I'm shocked the ORH looks like the place to be. Shocked. F lip to rain after 2'+ of snow would be a snow removal nightmare in secondary streets and neighborhoods. Shearing pins breaking left and right as the plows chug through snow choked streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 He's on vacation. Us FTL. And him too! He's probably somewhere warm getting annoyed at the runs showing a major hit over his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 They're not saying anything, and what they are saying is ridiculous. Nothing supports a miss at this point, we've really come down to being totally dependent on the Euro. I doubt we see the locals jump until and only if the 0z Euro comes around which means we'll have about a 30 hour lead in Boston. Shades of Boxing Day 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 And him too! He's probably somewhere warm getting annoyed at the runs showing a major hit over his house. We really need a Harv, Dickie or Barry to lead the way here. Mike is better than the rest of the CVB crew but still....we need the experience on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, the NAM solution looked pretty reasonable in that regard. This always seem to hit a brick wall somewhere. We won't see anything. I'm pretty confident in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its an extremely tough forecast, but I'd probably be hitting it fairly hard on the 6pm news. Still, if we get a scraper type solution, then it ends up just being a nuisance event. I think the odds of that are decreasing but they aren't so great as to completely ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't buy this extreme solution at all. 4.25"? Please... has to be suffering from a feedback problem or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Weekend rule not in effect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its an extremely tough forecast, but I'd probably be hitting it fairly hard on the 6pm news. Still, if we get a scraper type solution, then it ends up just being a nuisance event. I think the odds of that are decreasing but they aren't so great as to completely ignore it. Rain is the only thing I can see messing this up. Some weird finger of warmth. Heck even the Forrest Gump of models in the NOGAPs is on board now. Usually it's still out somewhere near Atlantis at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol 4-5" QPF with 50-60 kt 950 mb winds...am I hallucinating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Track of 500mb low is farther south 18z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 With that high to the north, the cutoff will be sharp wherever it ends up being. That's how the NAM shows warning criteria snows in southern NH while we're counting the flakes as they fall at GYX. Yes, GFS is the furthest north, Although, The other models are still trending, Until it gets more support, I just can't buy into it sniffing cirrus on the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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