CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not a good analog when looking at the big picture, but the alignment of the 850 freezing line during the height is reminiscent. 1997 was rain to pasty snow. This looks like snow to paste/rain, back to snow, assuming current trends are correct. The whole column was >0c prior to the onset of '97. As the mid level lows started to crank over the Jersey Shore everything dynamically cooled. At least initially this will be a boundary layer issue but even that I don't think that's a huge issue for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think rain is a big worry interior . Not with that high and cold 950s I would think we would have to worry about tainting more than rain but not concerned about rain here...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys worry too much about the NAM. It doesn't even have mega dynamics to help cool the column and let's not forget what it did the day before the feb blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM snowfall map puts bulls-eye over NE CT, NW RI and ORH County with 16-22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The weather guy on Channel 7 looks like Seth McFarlane from Family Guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam clown map is ridiculous, have to think Upton throws up a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The whole column was >0c prior to the onset of '97. As the mid level lows started to crank over the Jersey Shore everything dynamically cooled. At least initially this will be a boundary layer issue but even that I don't think that's a huge issue for many. Makes sense. I vividly remember that event in eastern CT. Went from heavy rain to paste in a flash. Not the same setup here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have mainly missed every storm this winter and look to do the same up here! Yeah I almost didn't want this to happen. We (ESP. me) are screwed either way. Back home there will be 12-18" at my house probably lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Makes sense. I vividly remember that event in eastern CT. Went from heavy rain to paste in a flash. Not the same setup here. Yeah we ripped paste down in Guilford and managed to pull off nearly a foot. Down by the water and near sea level they barely saw 5" from that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The weather guy on Channel 7 looks like Seth McFarlane from Family Guy Or Peter Brady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Scooter and others, what do you guys expect for air travel impact for those traveling Wed-Sat on the east coast? Looks like a cluster to me with hubs being hit hard Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You want to have fun, run a mean for SREFS, Euro Ens, GEFS, GGEM Crazy Unk and NAM,WSW criteria easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Scooter and others, what do you guys expect for air travel impact for those traveling Wed-Sat on the east coast? Looks like a cluster to me with hubs being hit hard Thoughts? Probably a cluster fook but I'm off until Friday FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This has some fantastic components to it for orgraphic enhancement for ORH hills...esp subdude's area as he is often the most favorable spot due to the steep terrain grade just off to his east. We have a firehose coming off the Atlantic with low level moisture (even well before the mid-level moisture really gets here) and a nice cold profile at 900mb and a wind of around 060 at 35-45 knots in the boundary layer. Just what I was hoping to hear! It does always make me smile driving on Rt 2 and seeing how much more snow there is up here than down in FIT. Thanks for the explanation earlier too. Better start thinking about replacing that blown belt on the snowblower.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably a cluster fook but I'm off until Friday FTW. Can you check your PMs in a minute? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Kind of interesting how the NAM and SREFs suggest two distinct periods of SLP stalling... one around 42hr - 48hr where the midlevel low center overtakes the coastal low in extreme SEVA. Then the SLP appears to cartwheel around the midlevel center as the structure moves offshore. Then everything stacks again around 60hr - 66hr. This supports the two QPF max model, one in VA and one in EMA. The deepening and occlusion process probably still presents a good deal of uncertainty for track, precip extent/intensity, and temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys worry too much about the NAM. It doesn't even have mega dynamics to help cool the column and let's not forget what it did the day before the feb blizzard. Yeah almost all of the SREF members that have better dynamics than the NAM show much cooler profile in the CCB. Some of the ARW members look like the NAM, but more of the SREFs are not similar with the thermal profile beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is not going to be a rainstorm. In part perhaps along the coast but it is March, there SHOULD be great dynamics, and there is a nice HP to the north. Waters is as cold as it's been all winter and when it flops onshore temps typically drop 5. Midlevels will drive the bus but good dynamics and a nice NE wind we shoudl be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I guess you saw the 18Z NAM with it's foot of Upslope snow w and sw of ALB. LOL Kind of interesting how the NAM and SREFs suggest two distinct periods of SLP stalling... one around 42hr - 48hr where the midlevel low center overtakes the coastal low in extreme SEVA. Then the SLP appears to cartwheel around the midlevel center as the structure moves offshore. Then everything stacks again around 60hr - 66hr. This supports the two QPF max model, one in VA and one in EMA. The deepening and occlusion process probably still presents a good deal of uncertainty for track, precip extent/intensity, and temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably a cluster fook but I'm off until Friday FTW. FYP... NWS has already declared critical weather delays in support of DC. The terminals are going to follow that trend too of preparing early I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What is the H85 line? That is the line that shows things like temperature, wind, air pressure at the 850mb level. I believe that it is often used to locate the 0c line in the winter also used in storms to "find" the cold side of the storm vs the warm side. I'm sure a Met can help clear this up if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To think I chided my wife last Friday for asking if we could get a snowstorm on Thurs of this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably a cluster fook but I'm off until Friday FTW. are you gonna miss this one .....(you are up in NH ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just what I was hoping to hear! It does always make me smile driving on Rt 2 and seeing how much more snow there is up here than down in FIT. Thanks for the explanation earlier too. Better start thinking about replacing that blown belt on the snowblower.... If you want t to snow, don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just what I was hoping to hear! It does always make me smile driving on Rt 2 and seeing how much more snow there is up here than down in FIT. Thanks for the explanation earlier too. Better start thinking about replacing that blown belt on the snowblower.... wow 2 posters above 1100' in westminster. post here during the storm in observations thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Brings the 850 to the Canadian border while relatively heavy qpf is still occurring 81 hours. But the bottom line is this is a major hit for most of SNE and parts of NNE. LOL which parts of NNE? The NAM doesn't get significant precip north of the MA/NH border really. Hits a brick wall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice to see the Nam live up to it's name on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 wow 2 posters above 1100' in westminster. post here during the storm in observations thread! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That is the line that shows things like temperature, wind, air pressure at the 850mb level. I believe that it is often used to locate the 0c line in the winter also used in storms to "find" the cold side of the storm vs the warm side. I'm sure a Met can help clear this up if I am wrong. It is the 850 mb 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I guess you saw the 18Z NAM with it's foot of Upslope snow w and sw of ALB. LOL Yup. The worst part of the ever-improving resolution of weather models is constantly getting freaked out by modeled downslope. It almost never verifies as extreme as the mesos, but even the globals depict it these days. The NAM should offer encouragement that somehow we are still in the game in the HV. But I'm plagued by the feeling that we'll be in the snowhole between the occlusion and hooking of the SLP, and even if NW solutions verify, there are still downsloping and temp issues to worry about. I'm guessing you don't mind comparisons to Dec 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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