HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 CF over my head lol lol, going from whiff to p-type concerns out to the Ct River. Perhaps a little over done? Still several model runs to go so compromise is the train to ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 My wife's got a 5:15 flight to Chicago Thursday afternoon. Doubt it's on time or even happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Occlusion then stall with massive erosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks dec 92 esque in several ways That was the benchmark for flooding until Sandy came to town..........naked here, this would be pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is also another situation where the NAM's QPF forecast may actually not be far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not sure how many W - E oriented valleys there are in NE... Once in NNE, there aren't all that many roads running E-W, much less valleys. Have planned to drive to Ft.Kent Wed evening, to look at logging in a deeryard in the Allagash. Don't see the snow doing much that far north, but might make for an interesting commute, especially for the 6-hr drive back south Thurs aft/eve. We may need to reconsider (12z gfs dumps about 20" on RUM, 15" on AUG Thurs, lol), but have until Wed aft to make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope this is too amped. Well, I don't think it rains in the Catskills on this storm, so it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 sure does. Wow. What a 24 hrs it's been. It actually tucks east enough that the winds would probably be more northerly than they were in 1992. Less coastal flooding and less shadowing that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks dec 92 esque in several ways Except that was a rain-snow deal, this is vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I hope this is too amped. I know it's been last to the party, but I still don't mind the EURO being where it is 54 hours out. May give some credence to the fact that these NCEP runs might be too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thermal profile as advertised on NAM is similar to 3/31-4/1/1997, although the order/direction is a bit different. Snowfall map through 75hr has 6" in DCA, 9" PHL, 10+ NYC, 13ish KTOL and a max around 20 near CT/RI/Mass. tri-state border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It brings the H85 line into NH by 72 which doesn't make alot of sense as the low cranks offshore not moving any closer or further north....but it's a major hit of one sort or another. What is the H85 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 East Coast shut down per this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thermal profile as advertised on NAM is similar to 3/31-4/1/1997, although the order/direction is a bit different. Snowfall map through 75hr has 6" in DCA, 9" PHL, 10+ NYC, 13ish KTOL and a max around 20 near CT/RI/Mass. tri-state border. Eh, I don't think that's a very good analog. Very different setup and different temperature structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 3-4" QPF in SE NE. 0.5" line by CON. I do not envy the media for this one. Major bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Has any other model matched up with this kind of temp profile so far? I don't think I recall any... Some of the SREF members did, but most of them don't. Even if the NAM did verify, its a ton of snow before it goes to RA- or even some pellets to FZDZ in the interior as 2m temps stay quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snowing by mid morning Wed in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It actually tucks east enough that the winds would probably be more northerly than they were in 1992. Less coastal flooding and less shadowing that way. Totally agree....in 1992, the low was tucked in over Delaware for a while and high pressure was elongated east-west causing about a 600 mile due east fetch into the coastline. This doesn't look anything like that, much more northerly component in the wind field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM crushes everyone DCA north....when was the last time that happened? I have mainly missed every storm this winter and look to do the same up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i'd take nam in 128 belt....looks like snow thru hr 75 ....then ending as light -mod rain for a time . i think half (at least) of what you see on panel 78 would be snow for ray -woburn -reading area even over to me. Will correct me if this is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Most concerning aspect for NewEng clear at this time is coastal impact - prolonged onshore flow, big waves for days Waves and Waves for days and days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eh, I don't think that's a very good analog. Very different setup and different temperature structure. Not a good analog when looking at the big picture, but the alignment of the 850 freezing line during the height is reminiscent. 1997 was rain to pasty snow. This looks like snow to paste/rain, back to snow, assuming current trends are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM snowfall map gives se mass 0" - I'm not sure how accurate that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well the chances of a significant storm are much higher now. Not sure of form but winds, tides, and snows are on the table. Winds and tides are more of a slam dunk with qpf and temperatures up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM snowfall map gives se mass 0" - I'm not sure how accurate that is. Rain is a huge concern here, always has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The NAM has insane VV's...would probably see snowfall rates like 3-5''/HR in the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 3-4" QPF in SE NE. 0.5" line by CON. I do not envy the media for this one. Major bust potential. We've been pretty lucky near CON since I've lived here (last 6 years) avoiding these types of sharp qpf drop offs, but it seems to have been pretty common in historical MECS+ events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not a good analog when looking at the big picture, but the alignment of the 850 freezing line during the height is reminiscent. 1997 was rain to pasty snow. This looks like snow to paste/rain, back to snow, assuming current trends are correct.I don't think rain is a big worry interior . Not with that high and cold 950s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Rain is a huge concern here, always has been. Good call. You've been harping on that for days. We'll see if everything keeps pushing NW, but it's still hard for me to believe that the EURO is that far off base 48 hours out. And yes, I know it has busted within that range a few times this winter, so maybe it isn't that much of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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