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March 6-8th Ocean Storm Discussion Part II


free_man

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One of those deals in which if you are not IN the hills, then you don't want to be near (just west) them....not as well as the ORH hills, but my area would do fine here on the cp, void of terrain interference.

 

 

Right, and I think Will mentioned this ... while not an analog for 1992, there could be some similar layout headaches resulting...

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NAM is prob gonna be a big hit. Def north with the ULL through 48.

 

Straight question...have you given up on the idea of the GFS collapsing SE?   Nam run surprises me, I think this will be the most NW model at this point.   Does kind of fit the pattern though, NCEP stuff goes bonkers but overdone.

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Straight question...have you given up on the idea of the GFS collapsing SE?   Nam run surprises me, I think this will be the most NW model at this point.   Does kind of fit the pattern though, NCEP stuff goes bonkers but overdone.

 

No. GFS is the northwest outlier still...granted its leading the trend, but I can easily see it coming back SE.

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I'm not sure how many W - E  oriented valleys there are in NE...

 

Not many, but I'm in the Merrimack Valley which is E-W, then tipping SW before giving way to the Watchusett rise east of I-190... 

 

But the impetus there was "where there is downsloping" in general... 

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NAM...lol.  ULL not getting away this time, much further NW.  Epic.

 

The fickle finger of fate pokes the GFS haters square between the eyeballs like Moe from the 3 stooges.

 

Even by it's own standards that's a pretty large 6hr jump.  March 01 parallel with the split ULL low.  

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Even by it's own standards that's a pretty large 6hr jump.  March 01 parallel with the split ULL low.  

 

Ironic that I've been pushing the hit scenario, but am now very cautious with regards to NCEP guidance.  They've done this before being over aggressive.   This could be the time they're right, but I'm not buying it yet.  A solid 0z run and I will throw the odds out the window, but this is the timeframe when they've done this many times prior.

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~50 naut. mile west correction at 500mb at 54 vs the 60 hour, per respective guidance.  That may not seem like much but it is huge, considering that farther east in the open Atlantic the entire domain of isopleths are also bugling more NW at that time - this thing's closing the door on being able to escape. 

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